Jump to content
Frobby

Mission: Impossible?

Recommended Posts

"Your mission -- should you decide to accept it -- is to go into the Bronx and win 3 of 4 games this weekend."

Impossible?    No, just highly improbable.    But I'd like our playoff chances much better if we could pull it off.

Miley v. Tanaka

Hellickson v.  Severino

Jimenez v. Sabathia

Bundy (?) v. Gray

I'm not going to overanalyze this.    Win tonight against Tanaka (4.82 ERA, got shelled in Texas last time out but overall has been pitching very well since late July), and go from there.   Score some runs, already!

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

What chance of the playoffs? We have zero chance. None. Winning 3 of 4 would be great but we are playing for pride right now.

No we have about 1.1% chance.  That is significantly better than Zero.  And taking 3 or 4 in NY as the sweep in Boston recently, would perk the chances up more.  

 

 

 

But of course 1.1% IS NOT very close to being in either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, foxfield said:

No we have about 1.1% chance.  That is significantly better than Zero.  And taking 3 or 4 in NY as the sweep in Boston recently, would perk the chances up more.  

 

 

 

But of course 1.1% IS NOT very close to being in either.

I disagree that 1.1% is significantly better than zero. 71.1% is not significantly better than 70%. For all intents and purposes, our chance of making the playoffs is zero. It's fine if Buck wants to keep playing Trumbo until we are mathematically eliminated but let's not pretend the playoffs are a serious possibility.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/13/2017 at 11:51 AM, TonySoprano said:

2017 isn't close to the "worst season."  It's not even the most disappointing of the last several years because that title would go to the 2015 .500 season which followed a team that went to the ALCS.   We went to a rally in late 2012, and the local TV interviewed my then 12 year old son.  He exclaimed how excited he was that the Orioles were playing winning baseball for the first time in his entire life.  1998-2011 was the worst.  From Dan's article...

 

Below are the dates during those 14 years when the Orioles clinched a losing record, and their last day at .500 or better.  In ten of those years, the Orioles played losing baseball from June 2nd until the end. 

YR

82L

0.500

1998

Sep-25

Sep-21

1999

Oct-01

Apr-07

2000

Sep-16

May-09

2001

Sep-03

May-27

2002

Sep-14

Aug-23

2003

Sep-15

May-18

2004

Oct-01

Jun-01

2005

Sep-22

Aug-17

2006

Sep-12

May-02

2007

Sep-11

May-31

2008

Sep-13

Jul-09

2009

Sep-08

Apr-23

2010

Aug-24

N/A

2011

Sep-03

May-26

 

6 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I disagree that 1.1% is significantly better than zero. 71.1% is not significantly better than 70%. For all intents and purposes, our chance of making the playoffs is zero. It's fine if Buck wants to keep playing Trumbo until we are mathematically eliminated but let's not pretend the playoffs are a serious possibility.

So you generally right here...but statistically wrong.  The Orioles have a most difficult path to reach the playoffs.  But I said the chances are significantly better than zero and that is correct.  If we could run this season through 100 or 1000 or 10000 variations the O's would make it somewhere but not often and really almost never.  But with zero chance, we could run millions and millions and millions of variations and not once...ever could the Orioles make the playoffs.

That is why I included Tony Soprano's post from another thread.  10 times in the dark years of 14 straight losing seasons, the remote chance of meaningful baseball was gone by June.  June.

I will not quibble over the statistical improbability of a 1.1% chance, but the difference between 1.1% and Zero is much bigger than you recognize.  

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, foxfield said:

 

So you generally right here...but statistically wrong.  The Orioles have a most difficult path to reach the playoffs.  But I said the chances are significantly better than zero and that is correct.  If we could run this season through 100 or 1000 or 10000 variations the O's would make it somewhere but not often and really almost never.  But with zero chance, we could run millions and millions and millions of variations and not once...ever could the Orioles make the playoffs.

That is why I included Tony Soprano's post from another thread.  10 times in the dark years of 14 straight losing seasons, the remote chance of meaningful baseball was gone by June.  June.

I will not quibble over the statistical improbability of a 1.1% chance, but the difference between 1.1% and Zero is much bigger than you recognize.  

Well, for example, Toronto is not mathematically eliminated (they theoretically could still win 84 games), but BP wrote their playoff odds down to zero about 2 weeks ago, because teams just don't ever come from as far back as they were with that few games to play.    Whereas, the O's are at 1.1% because once every hundred times  or so, teams do rally from as far back as we are, even with several teams in between.    Obviously nobody expects that to happen, but I'm not going to give up the last shred of hope until I have to.   Whether our odds are "significantly" better than zero is a semantic game I don't want to get into.    The odds are very long, we all know it.    We'll see if they get better or worse from here.  I'm rooting for better.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

Isn't Ynoa pitching tomorrow?

Thurs - Wade

Fri - Gabriel

Sat. Hell Boy

Sun - TBD*

* Ubaldo Jiménez, Chris Tillman and Mike Wright are the other options for Sunday unless Showalter decides to experiment. Showalter considered Wright before choosing Ynoa on Saturday, and the right-hander surrendered three runs and seven hits in 4 2/3 innings in a 4-2 loss to the Indians.

"Outfielder Austin Hays could crack the lineup for the final two games, if not sooner."

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2017/09/ynoa-included-in-rotation-for-four-game-series-in-bronx.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, da_dirty_bird said:

I say we just go on a 16 game winning streak to end the season.

Let's ask Cleveland if we can borrow from them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



Rumors and News






  • Posts

    • The Orioles do not want to sign any free agent pitchers to any deals longer than 3 years.  These 2 guys are simply going to be too expensive and demand too many years. I wish it wasn't so, but the fact that we just got out from under Ubaldo's abysmal 4 year deal is probably not going to help persuade them to rethink their policy.
    • I'd feel much better about signing Cain to a four year deal if he was 27. If they decide to go the route of a speedster, they might be better off signing someone Jarrod Dyson to a one year deal given the uncertainty of the direction in which this team is heading long term. Other than starting pitchers, I don't think they should be giving three or four year deals to any offensive players right now (aside from extending Schoop). This is a team in limbo even if they're too naive to admit it.  And to that point, I wonder how Duquette is able to even sell multi-year deals to respective free agents? Everyone knows that Machado is on his way out and that this team, as constructed, will probably not be able to contend. Why would anyone want to sign a multi-year deal wit the Orioles right now (over another team) unless it's strictly for the money? Short of Miami, I'm not sure there's a less appealing team in the majors right now. And yes, San Diego is bad too, but at least you get to live in San Diego.  
    • The question is, will the OHOF hold their PED use against them?    They’ve kept Raffy out.    We might need to wait until some of the 2012-17 core has retired.    I’d expect Markakis, Hardy, Wieters and Jones all to go in one day.    Manny and Schoop are further away but will get in later.   
    • Could DD simply be waiting for the asking prices to become reasonable and then strike to land two guys like a Cobb & Lynn? Next year there are some great position players who will be Free Agents, but not pitching. With teams trying to limit spending this year why not splurge for two such pitchers and then you could trade them after this year if you need to. The idea being that those teams willing to spend next year will not find much pitching on the market. Could this plan work?
    • Thoughts on who the next Orioles HOF inductee might be?    B-Rob?  Tejada?
    • Seems to me we’ve started numerous college guys at Frederick in their first full season — Akin, Sedlock, Gausman, Wright,  Matusz, Arrieta, Berken and Olson, to name a few.
    • This is what Bigbie does on the Eastern Shore.   http://bigbieshoreperformance.com/
  • Popular Contributors

×