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Frobby

Assume we don’t trade Manny and he walks

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4 hours ago, FanSince88 said:

It would be worse if we signed him.  Whether or not we have Manny, the success of this team depends on whether we can somehow assemble a competent pitching staff.  Sinking $30+ million AAV into Manny for 10 years is seriously going to hobble the ability of this organization to maintain quality at other positions, especially including pitching. 

How many times in your life as an Orioles fan have you ever honestly said "Gee, if only we just had more HITTING, we would have definitely made the playoffs."  We all know the answer is zero.  It starts and it ends with pitching.  2014 happened because we had 5 solid starting pitchers on the staff who gave the team a chance to win every game, and an elite bullpen.  

Please someone make it stop.

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I don't see the O's are being bad in 19 at all. Even without trading Manny.

Hays, Mancini, and Sisco, have to take the next steps and become legit hitters, unlike this current group of swing n' miss guys Duquette has brought in.

Manny needs to be dealt, plain and simple. I believe the O's could be fantastic in '19 with the right acquisitions. They need a Cobb/Chatwood now and trade Manny for another starter or at least one that can count on around the break, to be ready. Better yet, acquire 2 solid starters. Although, not sure Duquette knows what even ONE looks like.

Without dealing Manny, they haev to sign 2 quality starters and need about 6-7 total, including depth arms.

The kids and a rotation of Gausman, Bundy, Cobb, Vargas (I like Ross), Mixed bag. Harvey and another young starter for Manny coming, and 19' could shape up well.

 

 

 

 

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On 11/10/2017 at 9:27 PM, Aristotelian said:

Even if they hit on the draft pick it will be 4+ years minimum before that guy makes it to the big leagues and probably another 2-3 years before he replaced Manny's production. And it is far more likely that he becomes another Wieters/Matusz/Gausman/Hobgood somewhere in the range between bust and mediocre MLB player.

I don't disagree.  That's why I wanted him moved in July when it was obvious we were pretty much done as a 2017 contender.

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5 hours ago, twinedenter said:

I don't see the O's are being bad in 19 at all. Even without trading Manny.

Hays, Mancini, and Sisco, have to take the next steps and become legit hitters, unlike this current group of swing n' miss guys Duquette has brought in.

Manny needs to be dealt, plain and simple. I believe the O's could be fantastic in '19 with the right acquisitions. They need a Cobb/Chatwood now and trade Manny for another starter or at least one that can count on around the break, to be ready. Better yet, acquire 2 solid starters. Although, not sure Duquette knows what even ONE looks like.

Without dealing Manny, they haev to sign 2 quality starters and need about 6-7 total, including depth arms.

The kids and a rotation of Gausman, Bundy, Cobb, Vargas (I like Ross), Mixed bag. Harvey and another young starter for Manny coming, and 19' could shape up well.

 

 

 

 

Well I do agree with your  thinking. But it depends on who the GM is in 2019. I am hoping DD doesn't get an extension. 

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48 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

The point is not what the Orioles could be without him, it's what they could be if they turn his value over into useful players for the next 5 years.

That might be the right course of action, but it’s not the premise of this thread.

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20 hours ago, Tx Oriole said:

Well I do agree with your  thinking. But it depends on who the GM is in 2019. I am hoping DD doesn't get an extension. 

If DD doesn't get extended whom ever else takes his place will be far worse. Nobody better would take the job under PA and if he signs some young up and comer, PA will give him no authority. The one exception would be if Buck becomes GM which is what I think will happen.

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On 11/10/2017 at 8:17 AM, Frobby said:

Does that mean we’re doomed to be a bad team for the next several years?

Sometimes I think we get too wrapped up in one player.    The O’s went 49-31 without Manny in 2014.   It’s never all about one player.

At the same time, the handling of Manny is symptomatic of how the organization has been run the last few years, and that’s not good.    It would take a lot of smart decisions to keep the O’s competitive over the next five years.   

Yes, I think the team will be bad for the next several years.

Machado is only one player but he accounts for so many wins.  Moreso, I don't think the team will be able to make other moves to compensate if he just walks.  In other words, they don't have to stink, but they will.

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On 11/13/2017 at 5:58 PM, Tx Oriole said:

Well I do agree with your  thinking. But it depends on who the GM is in 2019. I am hoping DD doesn't get an extension. 

I cannot agree more. I am not sure I can take much more of him.

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36 minutes ago, twinedenter said:

I cannot agree more. I am not sure I can take much more of him.

Replacement, just for replacement sake, doesn't always produce solid results!!!!!

Look at the managers and GMs that rolled through here for two decades.

DD is far from perfect, but should be given some credit for winning baseball and playoff trip.

 

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The constant calls to remove DD are scary.  He hasn't been perfect for sure, but lets remember that while he had a resume and the requisite experience for the job, he took the job after several notable candidates refused to even interview.  AM and DD together have moved the franchise from utter failure to respectability and competitiveness that was lacking for 14 years.  It really makes me nervous to think that Brady Anderson is being teed up to be the next GM.  If he is, I hope I am wrong.  I am more open to Buck moving upstairs, but pretty nervous about that as well.  

The bottom line is that if DD goes and Buck goes...Brady may well be the only one who will take the job.  

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On ‎11‎/‎10‎/‎2017 at 2:55 PM, esmd said:

They can withstand the loss of Manny if they replace his production, and that can be done in a number of ways.

My issue is one of value.  If they let him leave as a FA rather than trading him, they're getting significantly less value back in return most likely.  I suppose the 2nd or 3rd round comp pick they get could turn into another HOFer, but odds are they'd do much better with getting 3-4 or more partially developed or even MLB-ready prospects back in a trade.

Agreed.  I imagine the front office will be able to gauge his asking price this offseason and make an educated decision on how to proceed.  Sadly, the Chris Davis deal does impact this potential deal.  Getting some good prospects in return would lighten the blow compared to settling for a couple of weak comp picks.  And your Billy ball statement related to value is one they will consider as well.  Manny is a  great defender with solid hitting but can't this loss be offset elsewhere?  We're talking 30M here.  How truly impactful is he?  He's a very good player but can the team thrive without him?  Sending an average defender with a comparable bat in Mountcastle is something they may be considering.  And getting a top-flight pitching prospect (or two) in return may make the team even better in the long run with salary room available.  

I'm on the fence with Manny.  Good young players should never be discarded especially when facing a rebuild but at the expense of a 30M deal with many young players in the fold due for a payday before too long and the huge deal for Davis with little to no return could nix this deal from ever taking place.  And I could understand that.

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The die is already cast, imho.  They are going for it with Manny in 2018 and if they are within 5 games of a wildcard spot at the trade deadline, they will not trade him then either.   We get a comp pick, period.  Whoever is in charge after 2018 will just have to deal with it because Dan and Buck are committed to keeping Manny in 2018. 

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