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Tony-OH

Orioles 2017 Top 30 Prospects

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A really nice list, Tony.

A couple thoughts:

 - generally, I can not remember a time in nearly 20 years where the Os system improved so much with mostly the same guys - so few guys acquired in trade, not any excess draft picks or $1M guys, - just good drafting and developing.  Hays and Mountcastle with major progress, Harvey healthy, Hall a draft day steal and other nice surprises - Stewart, Mullins, etc.

 - I think it speaks to a system developing some depth that SS Hall and Jomar Reyes barely make our top 15.  Strong years from either one should get them comfortably inside the top 10.

 - If there are some upside guys who I would move up, it would probably be all the down in the 20s where Sedlock and Fenter are.  A strong year from either of them would go a long way toward replacing the quality prospects who will graduate from this list next year.

 - I wonder where Tobias Myers would be.  I would have him ahead of Bishop and Baumann.

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25 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

A really nice list, Tony.

A couple thoughts:

 - generally, I can not remember a time in nearly 20 years where the Os system improved so much with mostly the same guys - so few guys acquired in trade, not any excess draft picks or $1M guys, - just good drafting and developing.  Hays and Mountcastle with major progress, Harvey healthy, Hall a draft day steal and other nice surprises - Stewart, Mullins, etc.

 - I think it speaks to a system developing some depth that SS Hall and Jomar Reyes barely make our top 15.  Strong years from either one should get them comfortably inside the top 10.

 - If there are some upside guys who I would move up, it would probably be all the down in the 20s where Sedlock and Fenter are.  A strong year from either of them would go a long way toward replacing the quality prospects who will graduate from this list next year.

 - I wonder where Tobias Myers would be.  I would have him ahead of Bishop and Baumann.

That question was asked on the main forum, I would of had him at #12 and Tony would have had him at #11. 

It'll be interesting to see how Myers develops, he's so advanced for a guy that age, but he's not particularly projectable, it's hard to see where significant improvements to pitch quality would come from.  I guess a guy with his feel for pitching may develop plus command or a plus change-up.

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19 hours ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Not that it would happen, but is Hays better in CF than he is in RF?

What would Jones look like in RF?

After his free agency of 2018, I expect he would be fine there. This is Capt10America. He ain't dropping that going into FA.

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10 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

Of the 50ish players I considered, I’d guess a little more than half get at least a short MLB stint.  Using a normal distribution (not sure if that’s the proper statistical tool for the job) I got 28.

Now that might seem like a lot but think about it this way of those 50 or so these guys have already gotten a taste of the MLB.

Ynoa

Yacabonis

Sisco

Hays

Santander

Crichton 

Aquino

Scott

Now I think more interesting is the estimate of how many will end up 50s or better, regulars position players, solid rotation pieces, or later innings relievers.

I got 14.

That seems a bit high to me, but I was looking back on a Orioles 2014 top 30 prospect list and while there was significantly less prospect depth that year, 9 of those players (including Givens who was on the team but not ranked) have become regulars or better.  That’s not including Sisco, Brault, and Hunter Harvey who each still has a significant chance at being at least a regular.  There are other guys too that still have a shot (much less likely shot) like Tarpley, Mike Wright, Christian Walker, and Ofelky Peralta. So looking at that the 14 seems more plausible.

 

 

The average team debuts 7-8 players per year, so the idea that 28 guys now in the system will eventually reach the majors doesn’t seem that far-fetched.   That’s a 3-4 year supply at the different levels.   But 14 players who will end up being regulars or pitching staff mainstays would be a lot to have in the system at one time.   I’d say 10 is a healthy number to have.  

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The average team debuts 7-8 players per year, so the idea that 28 guys now in the system will eventually reach the majors doesn’t seem that far-fetched.   That’s a 3-4 year supply at the different levels.   But 14 players who will end up being regulars or pitching staff mainstays would be a lot to have in the system at one time.   I’d say 10 is a healthy number to have.  

It seemed kind of high to me too, I came up with the number by using a normal distribution (bell curve) and putting a player’s grade (using my grades from my personal prospect list) as the most likely outcome (the center of the bell curve) and since grades on the scouting scale line up with standard deviations from the mean (with 10 being equal to 1 standard deviation) I was able to calculate the odds of each player being a 50 outcome.

I initially thought my grades must be too high but after looking at the 2014 list it seemed more plausible since that list will end up producing between 8-11 regulars and that list was not nearly as deep.

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On 11/13/2017 at 10:26 AM, Thats Baseball said:

Intriguing read. All I will say is 76 games, (only 76) with 13 HR, 19 2B and the most solid defense in the outfield with hamstring challenges (199 TC with 0 errors) and I see the blog pages put him as a 4th outfielder it blows my mind. Buck and the front office guys (sounds like a music group) saying that he is the most big league ready outfielder in their system, including they thought he was going to be the call up in September in 2017. Why would they skip a level with him if they didn't have plans for him?  And somehow he continues to be underrated. There is no doubt in my mind that if Mullins had a full season he would have "easily" been a 20/30 guy, if not a 30/30 guy. I have a feeling that if he was a 1st or 2nd rounder he would be looked at a little more favorable. Giving a plyer the accolades he earned does not take away from other players accomplishments that they achieved. It is going to be an interesting spring. 

2017 vs LHP: .208/.277/.327/.604
2016 vs LHP: .217/.282/.350/.632 
2015 vs LHP: .181/.272/.278/.549

See a trend? Every scout we talked to outside of the organization told us platoon outfielder. His defense is very good and his speed and power should give him a great opportunity to at least be a platoon outfielder. That's a great 13th round pick. 

BTW, a blog is something a writer posts his thoughts too. We are an actual website for a sports media company that has covered the Orioles and since 1996. I've been scouting the minor leagues since 1997. You can certainly disagree all you like and you can think we undervalued him, but it's pretty disrespectful to try and degrade us because you have a differing opinion. 

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10 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

2017 vs LHP: .208/.277/.327/.604
2016 vs LHP: .217/.282/.350/.632 
2015 vs LHP: .181/.272/.278/.549

See a trend? Every scout we talked to outside of the organization told us platoon outfielder. His defense is very good and his speed and power should give him a great opportunity to at least be a platoon outfielder. That's a great 13th round pick. 

BTW, a blog is something a writer posts his thoughts too. We are an actual website for a sports media company that has covered the Orioles and since 1996. I've been scouting the minor leagues since 1997. You can certainly disagree all you like and you can think we undervalued him, but it's pretty disrespectful to try and degrade us because you have a differing opinion. 

Disappointed that you believe there is any disrespect intended by my comments. Glad I learned early that thick skin is required in life or that may have really hurt my feelings. I did notice that you said outside of the organization and if they are judging or "scouting" him based on the needs of their organization that may be a somewhat true statement. Personally I don't believe so in talking to people from other organizations as well. There was a comment that you made that had me thinking on a statement Bobby Valentine made to a group of us years ago. If scouting was such an exact science the draft wouldn't need to be as big as it is. Opinions is what makes sports such a great avenue of discussion because you can always come back and brag about being right or suffer the consequences of being wrong. Time always will make people the hero or the goat.

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2 minutes ago, Thats Baseball said:

Disappointed that you believe there is any disrespect intended by my comments. Glad I learned early that thick skin is required in life or that may have really hurt my feelings. I did notice that you said outside of the organization and if they are judging or "scouting" him based on the needs of their organization that may be a somewhat true statement. Personally I don't believe so in talking to people from other organizations as well. There was a comment that you made that had me thinking on a statement Bobby Valentine made to a group of us years ago. If scouting was such an exact science the draft wouldn't need to be as big as it is. Opinions is what makes sports such a great avenue of discussion because you can always come back and brag about being right or suffer the consequences of being wrong. Time always will make people the hero or the goat.

Being someone who doesn't like prospect reports or rankings from people who haven't actually seen the prospects, I see why Tony would feel disrespected by lumping his work with that type of thing.   I was part of the process in creating this list and my takes come from directly seeing the players involved (except Adam and DL Hall, who I saw pre-draft video, but no pro footage). Tony sees many of the players and gets a ton of info from insiders and scouts.  I for one (and I'm sure Tony as well) don't mind constructive criticism or disagreements.  I'm more than happy to defend my takes on any player I've seen.  Just understand you'll get more helpful responses by asking nicely.

I can assure you that Cedric Mullins wasn't written off and that the opinions of him varied.  

There was agreement that something needed to change about his RHed swing, it's longer to the ball than his LHed swing and it doesn't look like it's going to play.  Could he make mechanical changes? Could he just hit LHed and drop the switch hitting?  I don't know, but those unknowns will determine whether he's a platoon player or not.  I'm pretty high on Mullins personally, but being the strong side of a platoon with CF defense is a good player and a fair assessment.  A player like that (Jarrod Dyson with less defense, more pop, for example) can be quite valuable and play a lot.

 

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2 hours ago, Thats Baseball said:

Disappointed that you believe there is any disrespect intended by my comments. Glad I learned early that thick skin is required in life or that may have really hurt my feelings. I did notice that you said outside of the organization and if they are judging or "scouting" him based on the needs of their organization that may be a somewhat true statement. Personally I don't believe so in talking to people from other organizations as well. There was a comment that you made that had me thinking on a statement Bobby Valentine made to a group of us years ago. If scouting was such an exact science the draft wouldn't need to be as big as it is. Opinions is what makes sports such a great avenue of discussion because you can always come back and brag about being right or suffer the consequences of being wrong. Time always will make people the hero or the goat.

First off, you were being condescending by making us sound like we were a no nothing blog, so stop with all of the hard-ache. Secondly, if you are in baseball and you don't take as many opinions as you can then I would look inward at yourself. Scouts outside the organization have zero to gain by down grading a player to us. The guys I talk to I've had relationships for years. They are an opinion to be added in with other opinions within the organization as well as our scouting.

You are 100% correct that opinions are just that. I'm completely fine with anyone having a differing opinion than me, and I don't take offense at someone who says that they don't agree, but there is absolutely no need to disparage someone's opinion as being lesser because you don't agree. I've been doing this for 20 plus years. That doesn't make me infallible or never wrong, but I'll lay my process down against anyone including professional baseball people. That doesn't make me right, but it sure should mean I deserve a little respect and don't get called "blog pages ", whatever the heck that means.

It doesn't matter what the team has in store. I feel his most likely outcome is a platoon outfielder because of his inability to hit lefties. Doesn't mean that he might not improve or a team might live with it and play him every day, 

 

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38 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It doesn't matter what the team has in store. I feel his most likely outcome is a platoon outfielder because of his inability to hit lefties. Doesn't mean that he might not improve or a team might live with it and play him every day, 

 

Do you think if he shortens his swing from the right side (since its a bit of a longer one than what he does on the left), he might be able to get more contact and become more than a potential platoon player?

Now I really wished I had ignored the call from work so I could have been on this conference and learned...

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12 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Do you think if he shortens his swing from the right side (since its a bit of a longer one than what he does on the left), he might be able to get more contact and become more than a potential platoon player?

Now I really wished I had ignored the call from work so I could have been on this conference and learned...

Maybe, who knows, it's hard to predict benefits from swing adjustments.  He does a late shift with his hands that makes it harder to hit velocity from the right side.  Adjustments can always be made, will it sap his already limited power from that side, I don't know.  

My thought for switch hitters that struggle from one side of the plate is to just drop the switch hitting.  

Don't get caught up in the platoon label.  75% of pitchers are RHP, add in using him as a defensive replacement/ pinch runner and you have a player who is on the field 80+% of the time.

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5 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

Don't get caught up in the platoon label.  75% of pitchers are RHP, add in using him as a defensive replacement/ pinch runner and you have a player who is on the field 80+% of the time.

This.   A LH platoon player can start 110-120 times a year, and in Mullins’ case, probably get into half the remaining games as a late inning replacement.    The only thing that’s tricky is we’d need a RH outfielder who’s capable of playing a decent CF, but Hays may fill that bill for us.

It’s a shame Mullins was hurt so often in 2017.    We’d have a better read on him if he’d been in the lineup all year.     But we should know what we have by the end of 2018, just in time for Jones’ contract to expire.

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On 11/15/2017 at 12:56 PM, glenn__davis said:

We all know that wins are a very flawed stat, but in this context I think they work well to show a point.  Since 1991 (post Mussina) - that's 27 years of drafting - the O's have drafted 6 players that have come through their system and won 10 games for the Orioles.  There are of course a few that came up here and were traded (John Maine was one I had forgotten about), but this is the Sensational 6:

Rocky Coppinger (once)

Erik Bedard (twice)

Zach Britton (once)

Brian Matusz (once)

Dylan Bundy (twice so far)

Kevin Gausman (once so far)

 

So in 27 years of drafting the O's have managed to produce 8 seasons of a pitcher with double digit wins.  

 

You left off Jake Arrieta, who won 10 games for us in 2011.

Still, that does seem pretty pathetic.   Of course, in addition to guys who were traded, there’s also international players that we signed and developed who won 10 games for us (Cabrera, Ponson).

It would be interesting to run this exercise for a few other teams for comparison.    We’d probably be surprised at how many pitchers don’t win 10 games with their original team but have success elsewhere later, as Rodrigo Lopez and Jeremy Guthrie did for us.

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57 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

Maybe, who knows, it's hard to predict benefits from swing adjustments.  He does a late shift with his hands that makes it harder to hit velocity from the right side.  Adjustments can always be made, will it sap his already limited power from that side, I don't know.  

My thought for switch hitters that struggle from one side of the plate is to just drop the switch hitting.  

Don't get caught up in the platoon label.  75% of pitchers are RHP, add in using him as a defensive replacement/ pinch runner and you have a player who is on the field 80+% of the time.

Exactly. i think some are focusing on the label of a left-handed part of platoon as a bad thing. Mullins has an opportunity to have a nice long career because of his speed defense combination. At the same time, people also need realize he has some shortcomings and he although he had a nice Double-A season, his late season struggles have to be taken into consideration.  His career .268/.323/.441/.764 slash line is nice, but he still has things to prove before he gets anointed as the next Orioles everyday starting center fielder.

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43 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It would be interesting to run this exercise for a few other teams for comparison.    We’d probably be surprised at how many pitchers don’t win 10 games with their original team but have success elsewhere later, as Rodrigo Lopez and Jeremy Guthrie did for us.

So, I just did this exercise for the Red Sox.   Since 1991, they’ve drafted a grand total of three pitchers who won ten games for them: Aaron Sele (1 time), Jon Lester (7 times) and Clay Buchholz (3 times).    So, it probably isn’t as common as one would think.    That said, I bet if I did Tampa the number would be a lot higher.

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