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Tanner Scott Prefers the Bullpen

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I don’t quite know what to make of Scott.    In the minors he was a high strikeout, very high walk, very low hit guy.    In the majors so far he’s getting plenty of strikeouts and has managed to move the walks down from very high to just high.   But at the same time he’s allowing way more hits.   Overall he drives me a bit nuts, but I think we need to be patient because there’s a 25% chance he could turn into something pretty special.   

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3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t quite know what to make of Scott.    In the minors he was a high strikeout, very high walk, very low hit guy.    In the majors so far he’s getting plenty of strikeouts and has managed to move the walks down from very high to just high.   But at the same time he’s allowing way more hits.   Overall he drives me a bit nuts, but I think we need to be patient because there’s a 25% chance he could turn into something pretty special.   

Better defense behind him would help. His FIP is 3.49 and his xFIP is 2.99. He needs to limit the homeruns, too, though.

I know he had a big uptick in the quality of his slider this year but something does seem to be up with his fastball. It's either a lack of movement or he is still figuring out how to pitch effectively with this new 2 pitch arsenal.

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4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t quite know what to make of Scott.    In the minors he was a high strikeout, very high walk, very low hit guy.    In the majors so far he’s getting plenty of strikeouts and has managed to move the walks down from very high to just high.   But at the same time he’s allowing way more hits.   Overall he drives me a bit nuts, but I think we need to be patient because there’s a 25% chance he could turn into something pretty special.   

I’d move him to the minors and have him start all year. The two pitch combination he has is good enough to make him an excellent starter, get a change up and you can trade him for anything you want in 2 years. It’s absurd, to me, to do anything else. All we are doing for the next 3 years is trying to maximize assets.

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His slider got an honorable mention here in chase rate:

https://www.pitcherlist.com/going-deep-the-10-most-chased-pitches-of-2018/

Quote

Tanner Scott’s slider (51.1 percent)

If you’re not really sure who Tanner Scott is, I don’t blame you. Not too many people were paying attention to the Baltimore Orioles last year outside of how awful they were, and probably even fewer were paying attention to their bullpen.

But if you’re an Orioles fan like myself (and if you are, I’m sorry), you know Scott from his time as a dominant reliever in the minors in 2017, with a fastball that tends to sit around 97 MPH and a wicked slider. That slider was on full display last year, logging a 51.1 percent chase rate, 29 percent whiff rate, 59.6 percent strikeout rate, and a .202 wOBA against.

So why wasn’t Scott one of the best relievers in baseball last year? Because his fastball was godawful. Seriously, it had a .200 ISO and .499 wOBA against it with a -13.1 pVAL. His slider? A 7.4 pVAL. So if he can get that fastball under control, he could be a dangerous reliever.

 

Edited by SilverRocket

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On 9/21/2018 at 4:08 PM, Cy Bundy said:

I’d move him to the minors and have him start all year. The two pitch combination he has is good enough to make him an excellent starter, get a change up and you can trade him for anything you want in 2 years. It’s absurd, to me, to do anything else. All we are doing for the next 3 years is trying to maximize assets.

What's the thought on Scott here now (this post was made 5 months ago)? I tend to agree with this line of thinking and would imagine the new regime would, but I don't know nearly enough about Scott to know if it's viable. 

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15 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

What's the thought on Scott here now (this post was made 5 months ago)? I tend to agree with this line of thinking and would imagine the new regime would, but I don't know nearly enough about Scott to know if it's viable. 

It's not viable, he doesn't have a starter's command or depth of repertoire. He can be a really good controllable relief trade asset very soon if he can continue with the progress he made from 2017 to 2018. 

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40 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

What's the thought on Scott here now (this post was made 5 months ago)? I tend to agree with this line of thinking and would imagine the new regime would, but I don't know nearly enough about Scott to know if it's viable. 

I'm not so sure taking a guy, stretching him out when he has poor command and only a couple of pitches is a wise idea going forward. If we want to maximize our assets, you make him the best damn reliever you can and flip him.

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29 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

It's not viable, he doesn't have a starter's command or depth of repertoire. He can be a really good controllable relief trade asset very soon if he can continue with the progress he made from 2017 to 2018. 

Curious is you see him in the 1-inning pigeonhole for 60 innings, or with medium good development a candidate for a Miller/Hader/Hand type 80+ inning season.  Last year his appearances of more than 1 inning by month were:

April - 2 of 3

May - 3 of 8

June - 1 of 10

July - 1 of 10

August - 4 of 11

Sept - 1 of 11

I imagine Hyde will use every inning he can get trying to make it to 1500 next season.  If Bundy, Cobb and Cashner all do enough to somehow get traded, we're going to make a run at some all time anonymous pitcher records.

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Just now, OrioleDog said:

Curious is you see him in the 1-inning pigeonhole for 60 innings, or with medium good development a candidate for a Miller/Hader/Hand type 80+ inning season.  Last year his appearances of more than 1 inning by month were:

 April - 2 of 3

May - 3 of 8

June - 1 of 10

July - 1 of 10

August - 4 of 11

Sept - 1 of 11

 I imagine Hyde will use every inning he can get trying to make it to 1500 next season.  If Bundy, Cobb and Cashner all do enough to somehow get traded, we're going to make a run at some all time anonymous pitcher records.

I want to see him throwing full effort again before being aggressive with his role. His fastball was a weapon that was near impossible to barrel, it's lost that umph.

He is throwing with less intent and intensity to get more control. I'd like to see him gradually ramp it back up. Check out the difference.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/videos?video_id=2369709883 - 2018

2017

 

Now he wasn't repeating that higher effort delivery well at all, I'm not saying I want him to use a delivery he can't repeat, I just want him to get comfortable enough throwing strikes that he can up the intensity (and velocity + movement/spin with it).

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1 hour ago, LookitsPuck said:

I'm not so sure taking a guy, stretching him out when he has poor command and only a couple of pitches is a wise idea going forward. If we want to maximize our assets, you make him the best damn reliever you can and flip him.

Paxton and Snell used to have the same criticisms, with lesser breaking balls. Patrick Corbin was a bum at 27 years old, then he reduced his arsenal and became an ace, at 29. You put the hard throwing lefty, with ++ slider, in the rotation and let your coaches work with him for 2 years if need be. That’s how you get the most out of that arm.

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5 minutes ago, Cy Bundy said:

Paxton and Snell used to have the same criticisms, with lesser breaking balls. Patrick Corbin was a bum at 27 years old, then he reduced his arsenal and became an ace, at 29. You put the hard throwing lefty, with ++ slider, in the rotation and let your coaches work with him for 2 years if need be. That’s how you get the most out of that arm.

Paxton and Snell have 4 quality MLB pitches and have been starters their entire career. 

Corbin has plus command and also has been a starter his entire career.

Name one 2 pitch guy with less than average command who made a successful transition to starting pitcher at age 24.

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14 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Paxton and Snell have 4 quality MLB pitches and have been starters their entire career. 

Corbin has plus command and also has been a starter his entire career.

Name one 2 pitch guy with less than average command who made a successful transition to starting pitcher at age 24.

Paxton has never had 4 quality MLB pitches, in real life — even counting two good fastballs, which is obviously fine, he doesn’t get to 4. Paxton threw a 4 seamer or a curve 85+% of the time in each of the past 2 seasons, ditched his change, and improved his cutter. 85-87% of his pitches are fastballs or curve balls, the only other pitch he throws is a cutter, and he just broke through, in the easiest division to pitch in; Paxton is 30 years old. Perhaps they should have moved him to the penn—— though, working on him, until he was 30, seemed to work out. 

Corbin barely got the 5th spot in AZ 2 years ago. Corbin ditched his change and added a slow curve, one of the easiest pitches to throw in baseball, as illustrated here:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/patrick-corbins-game-changing-tweak/

In a season that is about nothing other than development, there is no reason not to have Scott work as a starter, work on trusting a get-me-over curve and/or slider. Corbin and Paxton had to drop their change ups, Corbin throws a fastball/slider 90% of the time, the change he made was adding this little breaking ball 9% of the time — — he is 29. 

Paxton and Corbin didn’t just succeed, but thrived on using their two dominant pitches 85-90%, and sorting out a 3rd pitch, by age 28/29, to throw 10-15%. I find it hard to believe anyone would be adamant that Scott not invest a year, or two, in attempting to see what new eyes/coaches could get out of him as a starter. These guys (Corbin/Pacton) became elite by age 29 — 29. As nice as it would be to have a sweet 7th inning guy in 2019, I’d much prefer we see if Elias & Co. can’t find a bit of control, along with 9-14% success with a cutter or get-me-over curve ....in the next 24 months.

Name one 2 pitch guy with less than average command who made a successful transition to starting pitcher at age 24.

David Wells

 

How long after this draft did Snell start his Cy Young campaign? Scott has the swing & miss breaking ball already. 

 

 

Quote

 

Blake Snell gave up seven hits and three runs over four innings in a no-decision Thursday against the Astros.

If it's not one thing, it's another with the young lefty -- the walk issues that often plague Snell didn't surface Thursday, but the seven hits allowed were the most since May 8. Of course, there were still some familiar aspects, mostly the homer allowed to Jose Altuve in the third inning, the eighth time in his last nine starts he's given up a dinger. With the no-decision, Snell remained 0-6 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.58 WHIP through 14 starts overall. A date with the Red Sox on Wednesday doesn't promise to be much friendlier to the 24-year-old.
 
 
 
Fri, Aug 4, 2017 12:55:00 AM
 

 

 

 

 

Quote

 

Blake Snell, Rays | 4.3% to 15%

Snell pushed away from his slider (-5 pts to 9%) and shaved a bit off his fastball and changeup in order to double his curve usage to 20%. That added volume plus a 5-point jump in SwStr% to 25% along with a 4-point jump to 10% SwStr% from the fastball fueled his overall gains. Strikeouts have been a part of his game from day one and it definitely felt like he had a 200+ strikeout season in his game. His Cy Young-winning 2018 might’ve been the first of many such seasons.

 

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/10-biggest-swinging-strike-rate-gainers-of-2018/

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Ok, Paxton has 3 quality pitches, the changeup is lackluster. 

You realize Wells was a starter for the majority of his time in the minors, right? He had a 150+ inning minor league season. He had a changeup too, he didn’t throw it more than 5-10% but he had it.

I haven’t even mentioned the command differences.

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11 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I want to see him throwing full effort again before being aggressive with his role. His fastball was a weapon that was near impossible to barrel, it's lost that umph.

He is throwing with less intent and intensity to get more control. I'd like to see him gradually ramp it back up. Check out the difference.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/videos?video_id=2369709883 - 2018

2017

 

Now he wasn't repeating that higher effort delivery well at all, I'm not saying I want him to use a delivery he can't repeat, I just want him to get comfortable enough throwing strikes that he can up the intensity (and velocity + movement/spin with it).

You beat me to it.

In the minors, Scott was THROWING. In the MLB, Scott is PITCHING.

He sacrificed velocity for control.

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38 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

You beat me to it.

In the minors, Scott was THROWING. In the MLB, Scott is PITCHING.

He sacrificed velocity for control.

But is it a good tradeoff?

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