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NCRaven

Fangraphs KATOH Projections for Top 100 Prospects

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Fangraphs - "KATOH produces a WAR forecast for a player’s first six major-league seasons. It incorporates age, offensive performance, defensive performance, and other characteristics from the past two seasons. There are certainly drawbacks to scouting the stat line, but due to their objectivity, the projections can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated."

The Orioles had five in the top 100 although all were between 50 and 100.  Interestingly, the top Oriole prospect was D.J. Stewart at #56 with a projected WAR of 5.0.  Followed by Tanner Scott (#60 and 5.0), Austin Hays (#74 and 4.4), Zac Lowther (#78 and 4.4) and Chance Sisco (#85 and 4.3).

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3 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

Five in the top 100 is nice, but that Hays WAR would be very disappointing.

Honestly so would Stewart and Sisco.

If they can't squeeze more than a win a year out of these guys it isn't going to be pretty.

Of course #1 on their list is only at 13.3 WAR and they have Vlad Jr down at #15 at 8.8.

They don't seem to project anyone as a true star.

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2 minutes ago, birdwatcher55 said:

I'm pissing my pants laughing at these clowns. Where is Mountcastle?

It is hard to find him since he doesn't have a position.

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2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It is hard to find him since he doesn't have a position.

LOL..yes but he definitely has a bat. This is analysis at its worst.

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9 hours ago, birdwatcher55 said:

LOL..yes but he definitely has a bat. This is analysis at its worst.

It's not analysis at all, it's a projection system.  No one said "hey, let's discount Mountcastle".  The numbers were plugged into a system and out comes a projection and the players were ranked that way.  Mountcastle is likely hurt by poor defensive numbers and his struggles initially in AA.  

I like Mountcastle as a prospect, but it's not worth getting upset about one projection system not liking him.

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7 minutes ago, birdwatcher55 said:

Call it what you want but this kid seems pretty solid. If he's an average fielder, so what. There are a lot of those guys in MLB.

Sure.  There is no doubt he's a solid prospect if he can be an average fielder at second or third.  The question is, can he be an average fielder?

On a side note, it is odd to me as a layman that someone who is large, strong, fit, young and healthy can have throwing issues that can not be fixed through a change in workout or technique.

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2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

On a side note, it is odd to me as a layman that someone who is large, strong, fit, young and healthy can have throwing issues that can not be fixed through a change in workout or technique.

My guess is that the Orioles believe that the issues can be fixed adequately for him to stay in the infield.  If they're wrong, I think the bat still plays in left field.

Having said that, it was surprising to me that DJ Stewart was highest and Mountcastle didn't make it at all.

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1 minute ago, NCRaven said:

My guess is that the Orioles believe that the issues can be fixed adequately for him to stay in the infield.  If they're wrong, I think the bat still plays in left field.

I think it does as well, the problem is the O's already have a number of guys who should be playing left/first/dh.

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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think it does as well, the problem is the O's already have a number of guys who should be playing left/first/dh.

So trade someone.   Problem solved.    

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On 2/9/2018 at 7:23 PM, Can_of_corn said:

Honestly so would Stewart and Sisco.

If they can't squeeze more than a win a year out of these guys it isn't going to be pretty.

Of course #1 on their list is only at 13.3 WAR and they have Vlad Jr down at #15 at 8.8.

They don't seem to project anyone as a true star.

That’s the nature of KATOH, since everything’s based on the law of averages.    In reality, there probably will be about 20 players a year who debut in the majors and top 13 WAR in their years under team control.   See, for example, the class of 2011: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2011-debuts.shtml.  22 guys over 13 WAR and all of them were under team control through 2017.

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I know KATOH is fairly new, but I'd like to see how players that have reached the majors have performed relative to their prospect status. 

I'm guessing favorable.  

I have nothing to base this on rather than I believe in performance (especially in the upper minors) over unrealized tools/potential.  They also had Mancini in their top 100 last year where as no other major publication had him in there. 

I like Lowther.  Command and just misses bats, stuff aside.  

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