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Do Long Term FA Contracts Ever Work Out?

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3 minutes ago, murph said:

2.3 and 6.0 bWar so far on the current deal too.  But no way that one works out in the end, right?

Greinke knows how to pitch so I wouldn’t rule out there being positive value at the end of the deal. But I think he’s an exception to the rule that players rapidly decline with age. There will be decline but his ability to adjust his arsenal based on his ability is impressive.

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1 minute ago, Il BuonO said:

Greinke knows how to pitch so I wouldn’t rule out there being positive value at the end of the deal. But I think he’s an exception to the rule that players rapidly decline with age. There will be decline but his ability to adjust his arsenal based on his ability is impressive.

And if he does make that contract worth its value, he has to be in the HOF conversation, I would think. 

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3 minutes ago, cimota said:

Bonds first free agency contract seemed to work out rather well.

So did Rafael Palmeiro's first two free agent contracts.

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4 minutes ago, murph said:

And if he does make that contract worth its value, he has to be in the HOF conversation, I would think. 

Yes, I’d say so.   He’d be up around 75 WAR in that scenario.   

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29 minutes ago, murph said:

And if he does make that contract worth its value, he has to be in the HOF conversation, I would think. 

 

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes, I’d say so.   He’d be up around 75 WAR in that scenario.   

He’s currently at 60.7 rWAR. Through the life of the contract if he averages 3 WAR I’d say he’s definitely in the conversation.

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2 hours ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

It seems rare to me that a free agent acquisition ever ends up being worth the contract they receive. Can ya'll remember many that did? Maybe some small ones, but I am thinking the really big ones, like top tier?

As far as active players and their active contracts: Buster Posey, Joey Votto, Clayton Kershaw, Mike Trout, Max Scherzer, Zach Grenkie, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester, Freddie Freeman, Cole Hamels.

But, then there are the Albert Pujols, David Price, Prince Fielder, Jason Heyward, Chris Davis, Matt Kemp, Troy Tulowitzki, David Wright, Shin-Too Choo, Josh Hamilton deals.

Seems like half and half. You could maybe also argue that long term deals are fine when you give them to a top-tier talent under 30 without an injury history. Otherwise, stay away. It seems historically that the future-"Hall-of-Famers'" first contracts are great, but the the second contracts are rough (Miguel Cabrera, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, etc.)

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35 minutes ago, theocean said:

As far as active players and their active contracts: Buster Posey, Joey Votto, Clayton Kershaw, Mike Trout, Max Scherzer, Zach Grenkie, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester, Freddie Freeman, Cole Hamels.

But, then there are the Albert Pujols, David Price, Prince Fielder, Jason Heyward, Chris Davis, Matt Kemp, Troy Tulowitzki, David Wright, Shin-Too Choo, Josh Hamilton deals.

Seems like half and half. You could maybe also argue that long term deals are fine when you give them to a top-tier talent under 30 without an injury history. Otherwise, stay away. It seems historically that the future-"Hall-of-Famers'" first contracts are great, but the the second contracts are rough (Miguel Cabrera, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, etc.)

I'd quibble with the Bonds second contract as not being good.  5/90 and about 30 rWAR.

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3 hours ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

It seems rare to me that a free agent acquisition ever ends up being worth the contract they receive. Can ya'll remember many that did? Maybe some small ones, but I am thinking the really big ones, like top tier?

I don't know. I have never thought about it. 

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Raphael Palmerio first stint with the Orioles. Matt Holliday with the Cards. Manny Ramirez with Boston. Nelson Cruz with the Mariners. Greg Maddux with the Braves. Jim Thome with the Phillies. Vlad Guerrero with the Angels...just to name a few.

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2 hours ago, Il BuonO said:

Greinke knows how to pitch so I wouldn’t rule out there being positive value at the end of the deal. But I think he’s an exception to the rule that players rapidly decline with age. There will be decline but his ability to adjust his arsenal based on his ability is impressive.

He doesn't rely on velocity. He knows how to pitch. He's like Greg Maddux, and I firmly believe Greinke can and will be successful late into his 30's. If the Orioles could get him for some marginal prospects I'd be all over it.

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3 minutes ago, Dark Helmet said:

He doesn't rely on velocity. He knows how to pitch. He's like Greg Maddux, and I firmly believe Greinke can and will be successful late into his 30's. If the Orioles could get him for some marginal prospects I'd be all over it.

A lot of the time it is the guys that don't rely on velocity that are most damaged by a loss of velocity. 

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22 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

A lot of the time it is the guys that don't rely on velocity that are most damaged by a loss of velocity. 

Glavine and Maddux worked out. Greinke is in that category imo.

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Everyone is so into velocity and stats. Grienke has some of the best stuff in the ML. He has since KC. If it moves it's hard to hit. Throwing hard doesn't matter.

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9 minutes ago, Dark Helmet said:

Glavine and Maddux worked out. Greinke is in that category imo.

Odd, Maddux in his prime worked in the 90's.  The only two years I have velocity data for, in which his ERA+ was under 100,  he was in the upper 80's.

There exists a point where command and movement do not compensate for a lack of velocity.  For one pitcher that point might be 93 MPH, for another 87.

I'm not saying that velocity is all important but it does have to be present to some degree.  (knuckleball of course excluded)

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