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Frobby

Alex Wells 2018

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16 hours ago, Frobby said:

I never heard of Nick Stevens or baltimoresportsnut.com.    I don’t get the impression he’s a practiced evaluator.   

Need Tony to chime in, but that might be a former OHer.

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With Wells, the biggest showcase will be AA and AAA/Spring Training against MLB players.

I hope he has a great season and moves to AA by the end, if for no other reason than to send him to the Arizona Fall League. I want to see how he does there too.

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33 minutes ago, birdwatcher55 said:

I'm not excited about Wells. 

I don't know that I'm excited, but I am very interested.  One concern that has come up for me is the Nestor Cortes experiment.  They seem to have similar profiles and in a very small sample, Cortes' "stuff" did not play at the ML level.  Will Wells'?

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5 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I don't know that I'm excited, but I am very interested.  One concern that has come up for me is the Nestor Cortes experiment.  They seem to have similar profiles and in a very small sample, Cortes' "stuff" did not play at the ML level.  Will Wells'?

When I was talking about Nestor Cortes leading up to the rule 5 draft, I remember making a comparison to Wells (at least in my head, but I think I posted about it too). I thought that Cortes is what Wells would look like if Wells lost stuff and tried to compensate by trickery (delivery change of pace, different arm slots). 

Now a couple important things to point out, Cortes did not use all the tricks he used in AAA last year. He simplified things greatly, would that have made a difference, I don't know, but it's a stark difference and worth mentioning. Also, I had a 55 command grade on Cortes from what I saw watching every one of his AAA innings from last season. He did not show grade 55 command this spring. Was he off, or was my eye fooled? I don't know. If he had of shown 55 command, would his stuff have played? I don't know, but it sure would have had a better chance.

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4 hours ago, NCRaven said:

I don't know that I'm excited, but I am very interested.  One concern that has come up for me is the Nestor Cortes experiment.  They seem to have similar profiles and in a very small sample, Cortes' "stuff" did not play at the ML level.  Will Wells'?

Other than the fact they are both left-handed and throw around 90 MPH, they are very different pitchers. Wells is not using trickery to get batters out like Cortes. Now I didn't see Cortes in the low minors and only saw a few videos of him in AAA, but the stuff I saw from him this spring and in those videos is definitely a step below Wells. Wells has a sneaky fast, fastball that he hides well and batters don't pick up. His fastball remind me of Wei-Yin Chen when it comes to batters swinging through high fastballs. Wells can command his fastball in all quadrants of the strikezone and is not afraid to pitch inside to both righties and lefties. I didn't see that kind of command from Cortes.

Wells' breaking ball looked more sharp in the outing I saw this year and flashed plus several times. He tightened it up and it didn't roll up there. The curveball I saw from Cortes was a below average curveball with little bite and he couldn't command the pitch.

Now what Wells still needs to be able to do is develop his changeup more. Right now it's pretty straight though he does gets some fade occasionally. For me, that pitch will decide whether he's a back of the rotation guy or a number three guy. I think Wells has an upside of Mark Buehrle. 

Remember, Cortes was a reliever, spot starter most of his minor league career. Wells has been and will be a starter as he goes up the chain. 

Wells is a much better prosect then Cortes ever was in my opinion. I think he's highly underrated by many. 

The last guy I felt this strongly about being under rated by evaluators was Zach Davies. But what do I know? ;)

 

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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Other than the fact they are both left-handed and throw around 90 MPH, they are very different pitchers. Wells is not using trickery to get batters out like Cortes. Now I didn't see Cortes in the low minors and only saw a few videos of him in AAA, but the stuff I saw from him this spring and in those videos is definitely a step below Wells. Wells has a sneaky fast, fastball that he hides well and batters don't pick up. His fastball remind me of Wei-Yin Chen when it comes to batters swinging through high fastballs. Wells can command his fastball in all quadrants of the strikezone and is not afraid to pitch inside to both righties and lefties. I didn't see that kind of command from Cortes.

Wells' breaking ball looked more sharp in the outing I saw this year and flashed plus several times. He tightened it up and it didn't roll up there. The curveball I saw from Cortes was a below average curveball with little bite and he couldn't command the pitch.

Now what Wells still needs to be able to do is develop his changeup more. Right now it's pretty straight though he does gets some fade occasionally. For me, that pitch will decide whether he's a back of the rotation guy or a number three guy. I think Wells has an upside of Mark Buehrle.

Remember, Cortes was a reliever, spot starter most of his minor league career. Wells has been and will be a starter as he goes up the chain. 

Wells is a much better prosect then Cortes ever was in my opinion. I think he's highly underrated by many.

The last guy I felt this strongly about being under rated by evaluators was Zach Davies. But what do I know?  ;)

 

I love that Buehrle comp.   Probably the most underrated pitcher of his generation, so a good target for Wells to emulate.   And I hear you on the Davies comp, too.

As to Cortes, my impression is he simply never showed anywhere near the command that he’s exhibited in the past.   Maybe he’ll rediscover it and we’ll hear from him again someday.     But I agree Wells is the better prospect.

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Wells with something of an off-night tonight: 4.2 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K’s.   He threw 97 pitches in 4.2 innings, so I’m guessing Lynchburg was fouling off a lot of pitches.   

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7 hours ago, Frobby said:

Wells with something of an off-night tonight: 4.2 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K’s.   He threw 97 pitches in 4.2 innings, so I’m guessing Lynchburg was fouling off a lot of pitches.   

I wonder if he was getting deep into counts?

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