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Machado Trade Expectations

Machado Trade Expectations  

287 members have voted

  1. 1. Regarding the return we receive, what are your expectations of whatever Machado trade takes place?

    • The return will be outstanding.
    • The return will be solid.
    • The return will be merely decent.
    • The return will be poor.
    • The return will be just terrible.
    • I expect we will not trade him at all, getting only a compensation pick in next year's draft.


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Perspective: 25% on the poll thought the O's would get poor pieces or a draft pick.  Jumps to ~60% for decent return or worse. 

Diaz seems like a pretty strong piece.  So the details after that (while we all dream bigger) shouldn't be too upsetting.  Getting May/Lux or others you guys are excited about would certainly be nicer.

As for the "Rule V" guys.  I get that they are more likely fringe than stars, getting 2-3 flyers from a team that has near 25% chance of winning the WS (according to stat nerds) likely has some decent talent that is on the cusp.  The 38-40 guys on the Dodgers will be a bit better than the 41-42 that would be available in the Rule V draft.  Add to it that we can send those guys to the minors (just need to be on our 40 man) should make a big difference.  How many rule V guys would develop better if they simply played every day and with lower competition as they learn. 

Our season has been a dumpster fire.  We're fighting for last place (and losing at that too, ironically).  Manny was gone one way or the other.  I will hope for more, like everyone else.  Just keep in mind, Diaz + 2-4 guys is at least solid.  Progress over what many on this board expected even a few weeks ago.

 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, jtschrei said:

Got you. I'm just saying. I feel like in 3 days, there are going to be 2 top pitchers from the Phillies taking physicals at Camden Yards. And then the Oriole doctors will find something wrong with their elbows and then we try to circle back with the Dodgers. Meanwhile, there will be continued unsubstantiated reports about what was possibly offered by the Dodgers and Brewers, sending all Orioles fans into that same old feeling of frustration and despondence. 

Starting to smell fishy (Angelos-y) to me. That's all I'm saying. I don't expect anything to be done today or tomorrow. 

You DO know that it's 630 in the morning in Los Angeles right now?  

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Plus if someone ranked 38-42nd from the Dodgers HAS to be better than basically anyone in the 30-40 range on the O's. That's the difference of systems in play.

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This topic has devolved in the School of Roch forum territory.  The only thing missing is talk about politics and then I think the thread will have totally jumped the shark. 

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1 minute ago, jerios55 said:

Perspective: 25% on the poll thought the O's would get poor pieces or a draft pick.  Jumps to ~60% for decent return or worse. 

Diaz seems like a pretty strong piece.  So the details after that (while we all dream bigger) shouldn't be too upsetting.  Getting May/Lux or others you guys are excited about would certainly be nicer.

As for the "Rule V" guys.  I get that they are more likely fringe than stars, getting 2-3 flyers from a team that has near 25% chance of winning the WS (according to stat nerds) likely has some decent talent that is on the cusp.  The 38-40 guys on the Dodgers will be a bit better than the 41-42 that would be available in the Rule V draft.  Add to it that we can send those guys to the minors (just need to be on our 40 man) should make a big difference.  How many rule V guys would develop better if they simply played every day and with lower competition as they learn. 

Our season has been a dumpster fire.  We're fighting for last place (and losing at that too, ironically).  Manny was gone one way or the other.  I will hope for more, like everyone else.  Just keep in mind, Diaz + 2-4 guys is at least solid.  Progress over what many on this board expected even a few weeks ago.

 

 

 

It's not like Machado is the only tradeable asset either.  You can get your other prospects from say the Britton trade (1 top 50 + 2 filler) and Jones/Givens to Cleveland for say Nolan Jones and/or Triston McKenzie.  Brach, Trumbo, Valencia - maybe even Cashner can fetch pieces as well.

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2 minutes ago, Dipper9 said:

You DO know that it's 630 in the morning in Los Angeles right now?  

 

4 minutes ago, jerios55 said:

Perspective: 25% on the poll thought the O's would get poor pieces or a draft pick.  Jumps to ~60% for decent return or worse. 

 Diaz seems like a pretty strong piece.  So the details after that (while we all dream bigger) shouldn't be too upsetting.  Getting May/Lux or others you guys are excited about would certainly be nicer.

 As for the "Rule V" guys.  I get that they are more likely fringe than stars, getting 2-3 flyers from a team that has near 25% chance of winning the WS (according to stat nerds) likely has some decent talent that is on the cusp.  The 38-40 guys on the Dodgers will be a bit better than the 41-42 that would be available in the Rule V draft.  Add to it that we can send those guys to the minors (just need to be on our 40 man) should make a big difference.  How many rule V guys would develop better if they simply played every day and with lower competition as they learn. 

 Our season has been a dumpster fire.  We're fighting for last place (and losing at that too, ironically).  Manny was gone one way or the other.  I will hope for more, like everyone else.  Just keep in mind, Diaz + 2-4 guys is at least solid.  Progress over what many on this board expected even a few weeks ago.

 

 

 

The rates are even higher if you exclude people who voted in the last 3 days.  People were pretty pessimistic but I don't know why as these same people were calling Manny a generational talent for the last 6 years. 

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15 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I hope it's true.  You hope it's true.  We all hope it's true.  

But just as recently as the Britton trade to Houston, he wasn't.  Squashed that thing like a bug.

So...you never can tell.  I'd love to be surprised though.

I have no knowledge on Mr. Angelos' role with the team anymore, but, right or wrongly, Angelos made that decision last year because the Orioles were still right in the wild card race...all the way up until the epic September collapse that has continued into this year.  The situation is completely different this year.  We're 40 games out.  These players are leaving at the end of the season.  There is not one single reason for Angelos to step into this.  

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2 minutes ago, Nite said:

Plus if someone ranked 38-42nd from the Dodgers HAS to be better than basically anyone in the 30-40 range on the O's. That's the difference of systems in play.

 

This makes sense.  

1 minute ago, Punchandjudy said:

This topic has devolved in the School of Roch forum territory.  The only thing missing is talk about politics and then I think the thread will have totally jumped the shark. 

I voted for Nader, screw you.

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Just now, orioles119 said:

It's not like Machado is the only tradeable asset either.  You can get your other prospects from say the Britton trade (1 top 50 + 2 filler) and Jones/Givens to Cleveland for say Nolan Jones and/or Triston McKenzie.  Brach, Trumbo, Valencia - maybe even Cashner can fetch pieces as well.

You forgot Gausman and Bundy. 

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2 minutes ago, Punchandjudy said:

This topic has devolved in the School of Roch forum territory.  The only thing missing is talk about politics and then I think the thread will have totally jumped the shark. 

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Just now, Dipper9 said:

I have no knowledge on Mr. Angelos' role with the team anymore, but, right or wrongly, Angelos made that decision last year because the Orioles were still right in the wild card race...all the way up until the epic September collapse that has continued into this year.  The situation is completely different this year.  We're 40 games out.  These players are leaving at the end of the season.  There is not one single reason for Angelos to step into this.  

This is a very fair and valid point.  

 

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33 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

There is another quote from a LA writer essentially the same thing. I believe around page 307 at about 1AM or so that said the same thing.

As I said I hope it's wrong but I have a bad feeling. 

Im still hopeful it's wrong and we make out better but Im stoked about Dial. Just really wanted May or Lux.

The repeated bashing I'm taking here sucks! 

 

A couple thoughts:

first - you (Roll Tide) have kept the board well informed of the latest rumors - so kudos for that.  I don't know why folks like Luke and Brooksie and Gator can't find this information on their own on the internet (or simply read the thread) and yet find fun in mocking it when someone else puts forward that information.  Instead, I guess some find it funny to post something like - so the speculator is speculating about others speculating.

And I post that last sentence especially because there appears to be some consistent consensus (despite Luke posting about vastly different rumors) falling in line with Heyman's tweet about Diaz plus four without May.  Anyone can go to nypost.com and see that site has an article in line here.  Also, our own OH insider also popped in last night to say May was not in the deal.

Second, I agree with ISU94 that Roll Tide has really set up and posted frequently unrealistic expectations of a return including Diaz with May and Lux plus one - which literally might be 2X to 3X the value of the rumored Philly offer of Medina/Gamboa plus one/other.  Even if LAD had to beat out a Brewer offer better than the Philly one, that advocated package is …. way too much.

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6 minutes ago, Punchandjudy said:

This topic has devolved in the School of Roch forum territory.  The only thing missing is talk about politics and then I think the thread will have totally jumped the shark. 

I don't understand the question. Would you or wouldn't you make the trade? 😀Maybe should look at your notes.

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Just now, orioles119 said:

True, but I don't see them being traded.

A rival GM said the Orioles weren't hanging up when they asked about Gausman and Bundy. I see no reason to keep Gausman and Bundy if you are doing a rebuild. 

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