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Tony-OH

2018 Orioles Top Prospect List

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think our deepest list preceded the 2009 season.   I don’t recall the whole list, but the top 4 were Wieters, Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta.    Britton I think was somewhere in the top 10.   Down in the teens or low 20’s were guys like Bergesen, Hernandez and Berken.     Reimold was somewhere.   I’d love to dig that list up if Tony has it stored away somewhere.  

My computer died that had all my old lists, but I have them backed up on some external harddrive but don't really have the time to go an find them. I did find this though:

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2009/12/composite-orioles-top-10.html

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12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

My computer died that had all my old lists, but I have them backed up on some external harddrive but don't really have the time to go an find them. I did find this though:

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2009/12/composite-orioles-top-10.html

Yeah, that was a year later and the talent a lot thinner after numerous 2009 graduations.

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3 minutes ago, weams said:

 

Imagine having 10 top 100 prospects, and a pretty good major league team, like Atlanta.    

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37 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Imagine having 10 top 100 prospects, and a pretty good major league team, like Atlanta.    

And they are defending division champs!  

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Random thought:

I was just looking at the number ratings in the OP of this thread. Man, an evaluator would really have to have some cajones to grade someone as a 75 or 80. I suppose certain tools, like speed, could be graded there, but I can't even imagine a prospect being graded that highly. Not Harper. Not Machado. Trout maybe? 

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1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

Random thought:

I was just looking at the number ratings in the OP of this thread. Man, an evaluator would really have to have some cajones to grade someone as a 75 or 80. I suppose certain tools, like speed, could be graded there, but I can't even imagine a prospect being graded that highly. Not Harper. Not Machado. Trout maybe? 

According to this from May 2012, BA had Harper at 80 and Trout at 75.   https://www.google.com/amp/s/mlbreports.com/2012/05/03/trout-harper/amp/

I think grades above 70 are exceedingly rare for a prospect, though.   

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

According to this from May 2012, BA had Harper at 80 and Trout at 75.   https://www.google.com/amp/s/mlbreports.com/2012/05/03/trout-harper/amp/

I think grades above 70 are exceedingly rare for a prospect, though.   

Baseball America's grades are generally higher than other publications because they don't bake risk into the equation. They often rank lower grades above higher grades that have more risk. 

 

3 hours ago, LookinUp said:

Random thought:

I was just looking at the number ratings in the OP of this thread. Man, an evaluator would really have to have some cajones to grade someone as a 75 or 80. I suppose certain tools, like speed, could be graded there, but I can't even imagine a prospect being graded that highly. Not Harper. Not Machado. Trout maybe? 

The issue is that an 80 means that the median outcome for a player is a top 5 player in baseball. I'm not sure if you can reasonably say that's the median outcome for anyone. There are a few prospects who have a reasonable 80 ceiling, Vlad Jr, Forrest Whitley, and Royce Lewis come to mind. 

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It's anyone's guess what this list might look like at the end of this year, but it sure would be nice if we could add a new #1 (Rutschman), another top 10 guy from the draft and a third top 10 guy from the international market. I don't know if that's at all likely (probably not, particularly internationally), but that sure would be a nice piggy back on top of what has already been a good year for many of our prospects.

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7 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

It's anyone's guess what this list might look like at the end of this year, but it sure would be nice if we could add a new #1 (Rutschman), another top 10 guy from the draft and a third top 10 guy from the international market. I don't know if that's at all likely (probably not, particularly internationally), but that sure would be a nice piggy back on top of what has already been a good year for many of our prospects.

I'm thinking the 2018 list isn't going to change.  😛

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On 11/5/2018 at 11:57 AM, Tony-OH said:
Rank Name Current Grade Future Grade Ceiling Grade
1 DL Hall – LHP 25 60 65
2 Grayson Rodriguez – RHP 20 60 60
3 Ryan Mountcastle – 3B 40 55 60
4 Dean Kremer- RHP 45 55 60
5 Yusniel Diaz – OF  40 55 60
6 Austin Hays – OF 40 50 55
7 Hunter Harvey – RHP 35 50 60
8 Zac Lowther – LHP 35 50 55
9 Blaine Knight – RHP 25 50 55
10 Brenan Hanifee – RHP 25 50 55
11 Keegan Akin – LHP 40 50 50
12 Luis Ortiz – RHP 40 45 50
13 Ryan McKenna – OF 35 45 50
14 Branden Kline – RHP 40 45 55
15 Drew Rom – LHP 20 45 55
16 Zach Pop 40 45 50
17 Dillon Tate 40 45 50
18 Rylan Bannon 35 45 50
19 Adam Hall 20 45 50
20 Michael Baumann 25 45 50
21 Alex Wells 25 45 50
22 Jean Carlos Encarnacion 20 45 55
23 Cadyn Grenier 20 45 50
24 DJ Stewart 45 45 45
25 Jean Carmona 20 45 50
26 Cody Carroll 40 40 45
27 Brett Cumberland 30 40 45
28 John Means 40 40 45
29 Cameron Bishop 20 40 45
30 Matthias Dietz 20 40 50

To me the big upward movers in the first half were Rom (15), Wells (21) and Stewart (24), all of whom had great first halves.   Probably Baumann (20) too, not purely on numbers but also reports on uptick in his stuff. Then there’s Means (28), who moved himself right off the list by sticking in the majors all season so far and doing extremely well!

A number of guys have been minor or major disappointments, too, but I won’t dwell on them.    

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I think the biggest mover (up) is Baumann unless they decide Rom moves above Lowther, which I doubt. I'm guessing Rom will be rated higher than Baumann, but am not sure and, if so, don't think it'll be more than a few spots unless they really love Rom. 

Just reading the posts here, I think Luke really loves Baumann and Rom. Encouraging for both, for sure.

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Ortiz, Tate, and Kline (if eligible) are big fallers for me. Also JC Encarnacion, who is probably outside of the top 30 at this point.   Doesn't bode well for our return on the trades from last July.  McKenna's stock has to be down as well, but I thought he was ranked a bit lower than he should have been to start the season.  I'd still put him in the top 20.  

I'd add Adam Hall to the list of guys who should get a nice bump up the list. 

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Post draft, the top 30 is going to pretty solid when compared to other organizations, but where I think are system is viewed as below average is in that top 31-75 range. Not saying that there are systems out there with 75-100 “prospects” but they got “guys”.

Having the #1 pick and the top bonus pool, should really help out our top 40. However, as much ground on the other MLB orgs as we just gained, we’re probably going to lose just as much when the international signings are announced. 

I don’t know what the trade outlook is going to look for us, but that could be another potential way to add to the top 75. 

Until the draft next year, we have a few ways to add talent. Intl signings. Trades. Waiver wire. Rule 5 MLB and MILB portions. 

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