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Legend_Of_Joey

Give Sisco another Chance

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1 hour ago, Philip said:

If I understand you correctly, you’re saying that if Sisco can improve his control of the running game, you would prefer him?

Or do you prefer Sisco now regardless?

I don't think Sisco is going to get any better at throwing out runners because his velocities on his throws are pretty low overall so it's not all footwork and release like we thought.

I prefer Severino overall and think he's got a nice chance to have a nice long career behind the plate, even if it will mostly be in a backup or platoon role. Sisco's bat has improved enough that I'd like to see if he's able to add to his versatility so they can find a way to get him in the lineup. 

I could be wrong, but I don't think Sisco will be a longterm major league catcher unless a team is willing to overlook the flaws in his defensive game. Good, contending teams tend to want good defensive catchers.

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People can complain about our catchers all they want but that is the only position where we are above average. And that is thanks to both Sisco and Severino. 

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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm glad you have the ability to watch the pitcher's delivery and the jump of the runner live during a game and make that assessment. All I did was go back and watch actual video of the two steals, watching while timing the pitcher's delivery and pop times and then another take to watch the jumps, but hey, you do you. 

You aren't the fist person or last person who thinks they are right, proven wrong with facts and details, and then still wants to stick to your live in game view. OldFan#5 would be proud. At least Chance Sisco sounds like a baseball name so you got that going for you.

Honestly, Tony, you sound a bit defensive (no pun intended) in this post and a few others in this thread.   I didn’t see this game, and I will acknowledge your point that Sisco has a poor arm and his pop times are slow.    But it seems to me there are four factors in whether a runner is safe or out on an accurate throw.   

1.   Pitcher’s time to the plate.

2.   Catcher’s pop time.

3.   Speed of the runner.

4.    Jump of the runner.   

Your post addressed the first two, not the last two.   You could have two pitches with the exact same TTTP, but in one case the runner is 25 feet down the line when the pitch is released and in another case he’s 35 feet down the line.    (Those numbers are made up; I don’t know how far down the line the runner would typically be.)    I don’t know what Bundy’s TTTP is, but I do know I’ve seen two or three occasions where a runner took off and he never even looked, and the runner would have been safe no matter what his TTTP was.    

Anyway, again I’m not defending Sisco or commenting on these specific steals, which I didn’t see.   Just pointing out that a bad TTTP isn’t the only factor in saying that the base was stolen on the pitcher.    

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1 hour ago, Philip said:

(Sigh) Corn Corn Corn...are you saying that a free base isn’t worth taking?

Are you saying that because the Nats lost last night, it proves that stolen bases are meaningless?

Tsk tsk.

we exploit our enemies’ weaknesses, and if our catchers are lousy throwers( combined with new pitchers every week or so, and awful pitchers every single day) well then that’s a major weakness that can be exploited. “Nobody steals bases anymore” except against the Orioles.

I'm saying that overall stolen bases are not very impactful.

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Last year he had “poor bat speed” 🙄, now he can’t throw...

If he OPSes .950 all year I don’t care if he never throws another runner out and neither should you.

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1 minute ago, El_Duderino said:

Last year he had “poor bat speed” 🙄, now he can’t throw...

If he OPSes .950 all year I don’t care if he never throws another runner out and neither should you.

It is remarkable how he fixed his poor bat speed.  He should talk to Davis.

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I generally disagree with all the "data" about how meaningless stolen bases are because I see that data as being flawed and meaningless itself. Any data that tries to tell me that getting a runner into scoring position is "marginal" or meaningless is data I disregard as flawed immediately. All that data is really doing is isolating one or two aspects of hitting with RISP based on how the runner got in scoring position in the first place which really doesn't matter at all. Once the runner is there, how he got there means nothing and has nothing to do with whether or not he scores afterwards. If it's a lead-off double and he doesn't score, is that a strike against lead-off doubles or is it just a failure of the rest of the team to hit with RISP?

Stolen bases create scoring chances. They don't create runs. Hitting with RISP after a stolen base creates runs. Getting a runner into scoring position is never "marginal" or meaningless especially if it can be done without the batter having to do anything. It's a scoring chance, not a guarantee and of course there's the risk of being thrown out, but also the risk of a double play. I'm not against the stolen base at all provided we're not throwing away too many outs. Once the stolen base is successful, the rest is up to the hitters and it is on them if the runner in scoring position doesn't score.

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4 minutes ago, Sessh said:

I generally disagree with all the "data" about how meaningless stolen bases are because I see that data as being flawed and meaningless itself. Any data that tries to tell me that getting a runner into scoring position is "marginal" or meaningless is data I disregard as flawed immediately. All that data is really doing is isolating one or two aspects of hitting with RISP based on how the runner got in scoring position in the first place which really doesn't matter at all. Once the runner is there, how he got there means nothing and has nothing to do with whether or not he scores afterwards. If it's a lead-off double and he doesn't score, is that a strike against lead-off doubles or is it just a failure of the rest of the team to hit with RISP?

Stolen bases create scoring chances. They don't create runs. Hitting with RISP after a stolen base creates runs. Getting a runner into scoring position is never "marginal" or meaningless especially if it can be done without the batter having to do anything. It's a scoring chance, not a guarantee and of course there's the risk of being thrown out, but also the risk of a double play. I'm not against the stolen base at all provided we're not throwing away too many outs. Once the stolen base is successful, the rest is up to the hitters and it is on them if the runner in scoring position doesn't score.

Stolen bases are great. The problem is outs are really terrible, so even being successful 80% of the time doesn’t buy you much over just staying put all the time. Especially as home runs become more prevalent. 

Edited by makoman
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5 minutes ago, Sessh said:

I generally disagree with all the "data" about how meaningless stolen bases are because I see that data as being flawed and meaningless itself. Any data that tries to tell me that getting a runner into scoring position is "marginal" or meaningless is data I disregard as flawed immediately. All that data is really doing is isolating one or two aspects of hitting with RISP based on how the runner got in scoring position in the first place which really doesn't matter at all. Once the runner is there, how he got there means nothing and has nothing to do with whether or not he scores afterwards. If it's a lead-off double and he doesn't score, is that a strike against lead-off doubles or is it just a failure of the rest of the team to hit with RISP?

Stolen bases create scoring chances. They don't create runs. Hitting with RISP after a stolen base creates runs. Getting a runner into scoring position is never "marginal" or meaningless especially if it can be done without the batter having to do anything. It's a scoring chance, not a guarantee and of course there's the risk of being thrown out, but also the risk of a double play. I'm not against the stolen base at all provided we're not throwing away too many outs. Once the stolen base is successful, the rest is up to the hitters and it is on them if the runner in scoring position doesn't score.

It's marginal because some runners fall down. Some get thrown out. Some get picked off. It is marginal. 

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2 minutes ago, makoman said:

Stolen bases are great. The problem is outs are really terrible, so even being successful 80% of the time doesn’t buy you much over just staying put all the time. Especially as home runs become more prevalent. 

Exactly. That's the whole thing. 

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Just now, weams said:

It's marginal because some runners fall down. Some get thrown out. Some get picked off. It is marginal. 

 

4 minutes ago, makoman said:

Stolen bases are great. The problem is outs are really terrible, so even being successful 80% of the time doesn’t buy you much over just staying put all the time. Especially as home runs become more prevalent. 

Most outs are strikeouts these days. Is that better? Plenty of guys strike out trying to hit home runs. Strikeouts buy you even less because no one reaches base at all. There's risk to everything. Isn't this just a call for more "three true outcomes" baseball? It's boring for one and probably not even good for the sport in general.

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9 minutes ago, weams said:

Exactly. That's the whole thing. 

I think Bill James wrote back in the 80’s that if a base stealers success rate was less than 80%, it really wasn’t worth the risk to attempt and steal bases. 

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Just now, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I think Bill James wrote back in the 80’s that if a base stealers success rate was less than 80%, it really wasn’t worth the risk to attempt and steal bases. 

And he did not even include pickoffs in that napkin calculation. 

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