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Best of Statcast: 2018 Orioles

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I’m surprised Rickard’s catch had only a 21% catch probability.    It didn’t even seem to me that he was running full speed.   

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11 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m surprised Rickard’s catch had only a 21% catch probability.    It didn’t even seem to me that he was running full speed.   

Yea and Valera's catch actually seemed the more difficult catch, especially with being over the shoulder like that, but no catch probability listed.  So would that be like 10%?

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15 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m surprised Rickard’s catch had only a 21% catch probability.    It didn’t even seem to me that he was running full speed.   

Well more fielder's can potentially make that play (Valera's.) No one else is catching Richard's ball.

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28 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Well more fielder's can potentially make that play (Valera's.) No one else is catching Richard's ball.

Why do you say that?    It didn’t look crazy hard to me, that’s my point.   (Mind you, I’m not saying it wasn’t an outstanding catch.)

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4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Why do you say that?    It didn’t look crazy hard to me, that’s my point.   

Yea, I actually saw it the other way around.  Valera was in a dead sprint and it was over his shoulder. 

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5 hours ago, Frobby said:

Why do you say that?    It didn’t look crazy hard to me, that’s my point.   (Mind you, I’m not saying it wasn’t an outstanding catch.)

Let me rephrase, there are more players on the field that can potentially make Valera's catch on similarly-hit balls.  The RF, 1B, and 2B all could potentially make that play.  (Usually the RF or 2B's ball.)

Rickard's ball is in no-man's land, so another player won't catch that if Rickard doesn't.  Hence the low catch probability.

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1 hour ago, Cy Bundy said:

That was supremely underwhelming. Looked like the OH All Stars statcast superlatives. @Moose Milligan makes both of those catches, with his feet.

 

 

Yes.  Yes, I do.

What does catch probability mean? Does it mean that only 21% of outfielders could get to that ball?  Or that Rickard only catches that ball 21% of the time?

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19 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yes.  Yes, I do.

What does catch probability mean? Does it mean that only 21% of outfielders could get to that ball?  Or that Rickard only catches that ball 21% of the time?

It means that if a ball is hit that far from where the fielder was originally positioned, with that much hang time, an outfielder will catch it only 21% of the time.    Not specific to Rickard, nor are they saying what percentage of outfielders would catch it.     Some might get to it 60% of the time, others 5%.     But all together it will be caught 21% of the time.     And I would have guessed higher.   

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Some might get to it 60% of the time, others 5%.     But all together it will be caught 21% of the time.     And I would have guessed higher.   

I'm sure Mullins will get a better best next year if he can hit enough to keep his spot in the lineup.  He was a full foot per second better than Rickard at sprint speed (29.3 to 28.2), and so much of it is range driven.

The spread between fastest and slowest CF's was less than 4 feet per second - Buxton's 30.5 to Jones's 26.7.  If I'm remembering area of a circle right, that makes the Buxton catch area about 30% bigger than Jones's.  It would only be 8% bigger than Mullins's.

A well-hit ball requiring the CF to go 90 feet in 3 seconds to change an extra base hit into an out is most likely 10 feet beyond Jones, a dive for Mullins and in stride for Buxton. 

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11 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

I'm sure Mullins will get a better best next year if he can hit enough to keep his spot in the lineup.  He was a full foot per second better than Rickard at sprint speed (29.3 to 28.2), and so much of it is range driven.

The spread between fastest and slowest CF's was less than 4 feet per second - Buxton's 30.5 to Jones's 26.7.  If I'm remembering area of a circle right, that makes the Buxton catch area about 30% bigger than Jones's.  It would only be 8% bigger than Mullins's.

A well-hit ball requiring the CF to go 90 feet in 3 seconds to change an extra base hit into an out is most likely 10 feet beyond Jones, a dive for Mullins and in stride for Buxton. 

There’s a couple of fallacies in your middle paragraph.    It assumes that players can maintain their top sprint speed no matter the distance they are running, and it assumes they all get the same jump.     

Another question is how often do plays come up where the maximum speed is required.  Jones made 309 putouts last year.   Per Statcast, he was involved in 118 plays where the catch probability was 95% or lower, and caught 53 of those (13 below average).   So that means he also caught 256 fly outs that could be considered routine.   

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

There’s a couple of fallacies in your middle paragraph.    It assumes that players can maintain their top sprint speed no matter the distance they are running, and it assumes they all get the same jump.     

Another question is how often do plays come up where the maximum speed is required.  Jones made 309 putouts last year.   Per Statcast, he was involved in 118 plays where the catch probability was 95% or lower, and caught 53 of those (13 below average).   So that means he also caught 256 fly outs that could be considered routine.   

Fair points.  I just checked the Sprint Speed details on baseballsavant and was a bit surprised to see it only counts base running plays:

* Runs of two bases or more on non-homers, excluding being a runner on second base when an extra base hit happens
* Home to first on “topped” or “weakly hit” balls.

It is a little curious to me fly ball chases aren't included for outfielders.

Jump and route efficiency are real skills, which I suppose get crunched on the actual play results that go into an OF's Outs Above Average rating.

I guess that Catch Probability uses only distance and time as variables pushes me to think Sprint Speed is the biggest requirement for a very improbable catch.  I think since speed is also just distance over time that you could make a conversion chart of Catch Probabilities and Speeds.  At a guess it might look like:

30+ feet/second allows achievement of balls with catch probabilities down to 1%

28 feet/second allows achievement of balls with catch probabilities down to 20%

26 feet/second is insufficient to even catch a 50% ball.  Jones at 26.7 last year was 1-for-48 on 5-Star and 4-Star attempts, the two buckets that include all the catch opportunities tougher than 50%.

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