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OrioleDog

Wieters and Rutschman

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There's a season yet to play, but I heard Razzball's podcast guys report this weekend Rutschman is solidifying in the echo chambers at 1-1.  Enough so that I guess I'll start my exploration here.

Wieters NCAA, Ages 19-21

Freshman 366/470/581 in 227 AB's

Sophomore 355/480/606 in 259 ABs

Junior 358/480/592 in 218 ABs

152 Walks and 108 Strikeouts in his college career.

Gosh those were carbon copy seasons.

Rutschman NCAA, Ages 19-21

Freshman 234/322/306 in 209 AB's

Sophomore 408/505/628 in 250 AB's

Career BB/K ratio's dead even - 80 BB and 79 K

Rutschman is a February 6 birthday, and Wieters is May 21.

 

 

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IMO, the idea of drafting a catcher who projects somewhere between better than league average and all-star for at least six years will be very, very difficult to pass on.  Never say never, but as we sit here today, with a full season of amateur baseball to play before the draft, it is also difficult to imagine someone knocking Rutschmann off 1-1.

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4 hours ago, hoosiers said:

IMO, the idea of drafting a catcher who projects somewhere between better than league average and all-star for at least six years will be very, very difficult to pass on.  Never say never, but as we sit here today, with a full season of amateur baseball to play before the draft, it is also difficult to imagine someone knocking Rutschmann off 1-1.

I think I position player could knock him off, it'd be hard for a HS pitcher to do it given the associated risks and there aren't any college arms with the kind of track record for 1-1. Stinson has the stuff but too much relief risk for 1-1. 

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6 hours ago, hoosiers said:

IMO, the idea of drafting a catcher who projects somewhere between better than league average and all-star for at least six years will be very, very difficult to pass on.  Never say never, but as we sit here today, with a full season of amateur baseball to play before the draft, it is also difficult to imagine someone knocking Rutschmann off 1-1.

Considering there was about a 500 point gap between his freshman and sophomore OPS, I’d just as soon wait until his junior season is well along before judging whether Rutschman goes 1-1.    If he hits similarly to last year, then it seems like a no brainer.    (Yes, I know that these judgments aren’t made based primarily on stats.)

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12 hours ago, hoosiers said:

IMO, the idea of drafting a catcher who projects somewhere between better than league average and all-star for at least six years will be very, very difficult to pass on.  Never say never, but as we sit here today, with a full season of amateur baseball to play before the draft, it is also difficult to imagine someone knocking Rutschmann off 1-1.

I tend to agree with Frobby. Let’s see him this season with similar success, or hopefully better. Catchers are very risky due to the injuries and physical demands of the position. It’s a tough call no matter how many people say it’s a no brainer. 

Witt could show more refinement in some things, and be more than worthy. The guy I keep coming back to is CJ Abrams. If he shows a bit more consistency driving the baseball, and just a little more polish at SS, he’s hard to pass up for me. 

Another factor to consider is which is more valuable: 100-110 games a year with Rutschman or 150 games a year with Witt or Abrams? Assuming they develop and become major leaguers that produce in the top 5-10 of their respective positions. It’s a big assumption, but a valid question. You could say Rutschman could impact a staff in many ways that help them even when he’s got a day off. Or you could say that he would play some 1B or DH. And some may say that all we need is 6 years out of him. 

Rutschman is impressive. And if he is the pick, I will be excited. But I don’t think you can just point to some college numbers and say that it’s a no brainer before the spring season gets started. The new regime has certainly not made up their minds yet. Whatever their pick is, they will have thoroughly investigated every aspect of it and made an educated decision a short time before the draft.

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I once read a projection that Wieters was 50/50 to be in the hall of fame. Then I saw him hit. Slow swing. Very slow swing. Makes me really wonder how he ever posted the college and MiL numbers he did.

 

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1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

I once read a projection that Wieters was 50/50 to be in the hall of fame. Then I saw him hit. Slow swing. Very slow swing. Makes me really wonder how he ever posted the college and MiL numbers he did.

 

The bats were much hotter then. The pitching was inferior to today as well.

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Count me as pretty much terrified of drafting a catcher pegged in some publications as a "potential middle of the order bat". 

/looks around the league to find catchers in the middle of the order

/a tumbleweed blows by

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1 hour ago, interloper said:

Count me as pretty much terrified of drafting a catcher pegged in some publications as a "potential middle of the order bat". 

/looks around the league to find catchers in the middle of the order

/a tumbleweed blows by

Just to be devil's advocate, Posey and Salvador Perez do have about half the WS rings this decade. 

I remember Bryce Harper as a semi-catching prospect, and think you can hit too much to be a catcher.

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11 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Just to be devil's advocate, Posey and Salvador Perez do have about half the WS rings this decade. 

I remember Bryce Harper as a semi-catching prospect, and think you can hit too much to be a catcher.

They didn't want to wait the extra year or so it would have taken to develop him as a catcher.

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23 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

They didn't want to wait the extra year or so it would have taken to develop him as a catcher.

Yes, and I suspect they also didn't want to suppress his offensive development through the physical toll of playing catcher.  If you have a prospect with a special bat and who is an average defensive catcher, it would be silly not to move him off catcher.

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1 minute ago, Otter said:

Yes, and I suspect they also didn't want to suppress his offensive development through the physical toll of playing catcher.  If you have a prospect with a special bat and who is an average defensive catcher, it would be silly not to move him off catcher.

Piazza wasn't even average was he?

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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Piazza wasn't even average was he?

Yeah, but he's an exception to the rule, as the greatest hitting catcher ever and a Hall of Famer.  Not many human beings can catch 150 pitches a game in 90 degree heat and humidity, endure bumps and bruises and other injuries, and maintain hitting at a high level for many years like Piazza.  

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18 minutes ago, Otter said:

Yeah, but he's an exception to the rule, as the greatest hitting catcher ever and a Hall of Famer.  Not many human beings can catch 150 pitches a game in 90 degree heat and humidity, endure bumps and bruises and other injuries, and maintain hitting at a high level for many years like Piazza.  

How about for 6.8 years?  😀

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