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Orioles sign Nate Karns

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1 hour ago, Tx Oriole said:

DD got a new GM job?

It was a joke. No, he hasn’t, and lots of people strongly feel he never will.

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1 hour ago, Philip said:

It was a joke. No, he hasn’t, and lots of people strongly feel he never will.

He may not. He's 60. Maybe this is getting to be a younger mans position. 

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I like this signing. Especially since we essentially have an option because of his team control that his left. However the thoracic injury is scary. He’s basically in the same situation that Tillman was at in 2017 after his WC game start. Pretty much the same age even. Hopefully Karns is good to go. 

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1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I like this signing. Especially since we essentially have an option because of his team control that his left. However the thoracic injury is scary. He’s basically in the same situation that Tillman was at in 2017 after his WC game start. Pretty much the same age even. Hopefully Karns is good to go. 

If Karns cannot go, he is only costing the O's $800K compared to the $3 million they gave Tillman.

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4 hours ago, Chromehill said:

If Karns cannot go, he is only costing the O's $800K compared to the $3 million they gave Tillman.

I think another difference between Karns and Tillman (also Jurrjens and Garcia mentioned elsewhere in this thread) is that while all of those guys were broken junkballers at the time, Karns still averages 93-94mph on the FB as a starter.

 

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26 minutes ago, Chromehill said:

If Karns cannot go, he is only costing the O's $800K compared to the $3 million they gave Tillman.

It’s not a bad signing. They literally had to pay him something. 800k is probably pretty darn close to the minimum for his service time. Anything he gives us is a plus. Plus we can always DFA him if he is struggling and he’d likely go unclaimed. 

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1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

It’s not a bad signing. They literally had to pay him something. 800k is probably pretty darn close to the minimum for his service time. Anything he gives us is a plus. Plus we can always DFA him if he is struggling and he’d likely go unclaimed. 

The minimum for any MLB salary regardless of service time is 555k, so they are just paying him 245k more than they'd have to pay any random warm body to occupy a 25 man spot. 

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What kind of production do you expect from Karns?

His three year avg is  8 starts. 46 IP, 4.83 ERA,    

That sounds about right to me.

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1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

I think another difference between Karns and Tillman (also Jurrjens and Garcia mentioned elsewhere in this thread) is that while all of those guys where broken junkballers at the time, Karns still averages 93-94mph on the FB as a starter.

 

Absolutely. He has good stuff and an excellent curve/knuckle-curve. 

 

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47 minutes ago, wildcard said:

What kind of production do you expect from Karns?

His three year avg is  8 starts. 46 IP, 4.83 ERA,    

That sounds about right to me.

PECOTA has him at 8 starts, 4.06 ERA in 52 innings. With those numbers, PECOTA has him tied as the second most valuable Orioles pitcher by WAR. I don't think you can really use three year averages when he missed a year and a half after surgery. $800K would be a reasonable value for just those 52 innings. And if he ends up healthy he could have trade value at some point in the next two years.

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3 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

PECOTA has him at 8 starts, 4.06 ERA in 52 innings. I don't think you can really use three year averages when he missed a year and a half after surgery. $800K would be a reasonable value for just those 52 innings. And if he ends up healthy he could have trade value at some point in the next two years.

Since there is a chance he will not be able to start a game in 2019, I think the 3 year avg is as good an estimate as any.

At any rate the two estimates are close.

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Just now, wildcard said:

Since there is a chance he will not be able to start a game in 2019, I think the 3 year is as good an estimate as any.

I guess so. I just think any estimate is pretty much worthless.

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1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Since there is a chance he will not be able to start a game in 2019, I think the 3 year avg is as good an estimate as any.

At any rate the two estimates are close.

I'm guessing this is not the type of signing you'd hoped from Elias? Haha. IMO it's pretty much a perfect signing.

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I guess so. I just think any estimate is pretty much worthless.

It's probably #1 with a bullet on the early spring training interest list.  Can he keep up the milestones with the rest of the healthy rotation regulars?  The relatively innocent sounding elbow inflammation at the end of last spring followed by out for the season is a puzzle.

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