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Ten for 10 years

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If you could have any ten players in baseball over the next 10 years, who would they be?    Don’t worry about whether you have duplicates at certain positions, just pick the guys you think will be the best ten.   Don’t consider salary or contract status, time to free agency, or anything other than who would be the best ten players for the next 10 years.

While this is not intended to be exclusive or exhaustive, here are some players to consider.  (Don’t assume I’m putting them in the order I think they belong in.   I’m just listing them in the order they popped into my head.)

1.   Mike Trout.   He’ll be 27-36 the next 10 years.   64.3 rWAR in 7+ years so far.

2.   Bryce Harper, 26-35, 27.4 rWAR in 6+ years.

3.   Manny Machado, 26-35, 33.8 rWAR in 6+ years.

4.   Mookie Betts, 26-35, 35.2 rWAR in 4+ years.

5.   Aaron Judge, 27-36, 13.2 rWAR in 2+ years.

6.   Giancarlo Stanton, 29-38, 39.2 rWAR in 8+ years.

7.   Carlos Correa, 24-33, 18.2 rWAR in 3+ years.

8.   Francisco Lindor, 25-34, 23.9 rWAR in 3+ years.

9.   Jose Altuve, 29-38, 35.2 rWAR in 7+ years.

10. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 20-29, never played in the majors.

11.  Nolan Arenado, 28-37, 33.1 rWAR in 5+ years.   

12.  Alex Bregman, 25-34, 12.7 rWAR in 2+ years.

13.   Jose Ramirez, 26-35, 22.0 rWAR in 5+ years.

14.   Christian Yelich, 27-36, 26.2 rWAR in 5+ years.

15.   Matt Chapman, 26-35, 11.7 rWAR in 1+ years.

16.   Juan Soto, 20-29, 3.0 rWAR in 3/4 of a year.

17.   Ronald Acuna, 21-30, 4.1 rWAR in 3/4 of a year.

18.   Trea Turner, 26-35, 10.4 rWAR in 2+ years.

19.  Andrew Benintendi, 24-33, 7.0 rWAR in 2+ years.

20.   Ozzie Albies, Braves, 22-31, 5.2 rWAR in 1+ years.

Two points:

1.   I have no doubt there are some other guys who haven’t played in the majors yet, or who are just getting started, who deserve consideration for the ten.    These are just the guys who came to mind for me.

2.   You’ll notice there are no pitchers on this list.    Partially, that’s because 10 years is a very long time for a pitcher, and guessing who gets hurt is such a crapshoot.    But some probably do belong in a top 10.    I’ll probably post a second list of possible pitcher candidates when I have time to think of it, but please include pitchers on your list if you think they belong.

 

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Trout, Acuna, Soto, Vlad, Lindor, Bregman, Harper, Machado, Betts, Yelich

First 2 Out: Correa and Benintendi

Albies young enough but not good enough, all the other 26+ year olds it is too long.

Thinking about pitchers, the thought that hit me the most is in a parallel universe, the answer might still be Jose Fernandez.  Nola and Buehler were the first guys I thought about - everyone else better than them is down to their last few years of excellence.  I'm open to Forrest Whitley changing my mind on this in about 2-3 MLB months.

 

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Trout, Acuna, Vlad, Lindor, Machado, Yelich, Betts, Ramirez, Soto, Harper

Ramirez is the sleeper here, he has skills that age very well. He is a skills over tools guy whose best tool is his hit tool. He steals a ton of bases despite not being much faster than Mancini, he hits a ton of home runs despite having average max and avg exit velocities. He had the best BB/K ratio in baseball and had the 7th best wRC+ despite a .252 BABIP.     

First two out are Bregman and to go off the list to get a pitcher, Forrest Whitley. 

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It occurs to me that Shohei Ohtani is an option.    Among pure pitchers here are some thoughts:

Jack Flaherty, 22, 

Brad Keller, 22

Shane Bieber, 23

Walker Buehler, 23

German Marquez, 23

Jose Berrios, 24

Luis Severino, 24

Aaron Nola, 25

I’ll stop there    Honestly I’d take ten hitters before guessing which pitcher would hold up over ten years.   

 

 

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Nice list. 

I think Stanton is on the decline. I think even the Yankees will regret his contract.  

Jose Ramirez really was off at the end of last year. Of course it could just have been a slump or will it carry over? 

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If I could pick one it would be Acuna. I would have Tatis Jr and Robles on my list. 

I don't think I would touch a pitcher for a ten year timeframe. They are more like NFL running backs.

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25 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Nice list. 

I think Stanton is on the decline. I think even the Yankees will regret his contract.  

Jose Ramirez really was off at the end of last year. Of course it could just have been a slump or will it carry over? 

It's pretty nice to be able to slump your way into a 8 WAR season. 

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3 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

It's pretty nice to be able to slump your way into a 8 WAR season. 

He hit only .167 with an OPS of .631 last 26 games. It was a topic during the playoffs and Houston shut him down.  

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1 minute ago, eddie83 said:

He hit only .167 with an OPS of .631 last 26 games. It was a topic during the playoffs and Houston shut him down.  

I wasn't criticizing your comment, just as pointing out how insane of a season a guy must be having to slump hard and still have a season that some HOFers would be jealous of. 

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7 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I wasn't criticizing your comment, just as pointing out how insane of a season a guy must be having to slump hard and still have a season that some HOFers would be jealous of. 

I know. I didn’t realize anything was going on with him. His numbers were so good I didn’t even take notice. It just stood out to me how during the Astros series how it was such a big topic.  

If my memory was correct he kept getting breaking balls. If he had such a hole somewhere you would think it would have showed up before now.  

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I just picked the top WAR players from BBRef. 7 hitters (that put Manny on my list) and 3 pitchers (you could easily fill in that rotation!) You said not to worry about other factors, contract status and such or I would have leaned much more heavily toward younger players. Maybe WAR divided by age.

1. Mike Trout
2. Mookie Betts
3. Alex Bregman
4. Jose Ramirez
5. Christian Yelich
6. J.D. Martinez
7. Manny Machado

1. Aaron Nola
2. Jacob de Grom
3. Max Scherzer

 

That's 82.5 WAR last year.

 

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1 hour ago, scOtt said:

I just picked the top WAR players from BBRef. 7 hitters (that put Manny on my list) and 3 pitchers (you could easily fill in that rotation!) You said not to worry about other factors, contract status and such or I would have leaned much more heavily toward younger players. Maybe WAR divided by age.

1. Mike Trout
2. Mookie Betts
3. Alex Bregman
4. Jose Ramirez
5. Christian Yelich
6. J.D. Martinez
7. Manny Machado

1. Aaron Nola
2. Jacob de Grom
3. Max Scherzer

 

That's 82.5 WAR last year.

 

I’d leave Martinez off because he’s old enough (31 this season) that the back half of the ten year period probably won’t be too pretty.

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3 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Trout, Acuna, Vlad, Lindor, Machado, Yelich, Betts, Ramirez, Soto, Harper

Ramirez is the sleeper here, he has skills that age very well. He is a skills over tools guy whose best tool is his hit tool. He steals a ton of bases despite not being much faster than Mancini, he hits a ton of home runs despite having average max and avg exit velocities. He had the best BB/K ratio in baseball and had the 7th best wRC+ despite a .252 BABIP.     

First two out are Bregman and to go off the list to get a pitcher, Forrest Whitley. 

Curious why you think Bregman is one of the first to be removed from the list...

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9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d leave Martinez off because he’s old enough (31 this season) that the back half of the ten year period probably won’t be too pretty.

Definitely. He's my first to cut off of the list.

If the NL really does adopt the DH, I think Stanton, Harper and Judge will all be leaving their gloves in their lockers by 2024.

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29 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

Curious why you think Bregman is one of the first to be removed from the list...

Meaning he'd be 11th, I think he'll be very good. 

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