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interloper

Connolly/Elias interview: Dominican facility upgrades, etc

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14 minutes ago, LTO's said:

The Mesa brothers, only one of which is an actual prospect, are gone. They are of no importance to what's left on the market. How much do you think the Orioles should spend on Sanchez? If you think they should spend the majority of what they have then I'm thankful you are not running things. Outside of him, there's nothing left. Elias in his Q&A said teams aren't expecting any other Cubans to hit the market this cycle. So the O's currently have 6 MM, Sanchez is worth around 2MM. What would you suggest they do with the 4 MM they'd have left? I'd much rather see them fix their facilities/begin to have a presence in VZ. There simply aren't any players left worth spending the money on. You can criticize the previous regime but it seems like spilled milk at this point.

How much money do the Marlins have now? Some team has offered 2 million to Sanchez if he waits until July to sign.  So probably would cost more than $2 million.  I am not sure why they can't build a facility in the Dominican and sign Sanchez.  I am sure you could get a loan to build a decent facility like most every other team has.  And spread the cost over the next 20 years and then the cost is negligible. 

The fact that we are limited so much financially that we can't sign a guy for $2.5 million and also invest in scouts and analytics after shedding so much salaries from last season.  I am not sure why no one is questioning anything the club had done.

Salaries shed: Beckham, Gausman, O'Day, Jones, Tillman, Machado, Schoop, Brach and Rasmus.  Plus I am sure Hyde is making at least a couple million less than Buck. Tons of money yet but it is strange that no one cares how cheap the team has become. 

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1 minute ago, atomic said:

How much money do the Marlins have now? Some team has offered 2 million to Sanchez if he waits until July to sign.  So probably would cost more than $2 million.  I am not sure why they can't build a facility in the Dominican and sign Sanchez.  I am sure you could get a loan to build a decent facility like most every other team has.  And spread the cost over the next 20 years and then the cost is negligible. 

The fact that we are limited so much financially that we can't sign a guy for $2.5 million and also invest in scouts and analytics after shedding so much salaries from last season.  I am not sure why no one is questioning anything the club had done.

Salaries shed: Beckham, Gausman, O'Day, Jones, Tillman, Machado, Schoop, Brach and Rasmus.  Plus I am sure Hyde is making at least a couple million less than Buck. Tons of money yet but it is strange that no one cares how cheap the team has become. 

So building the infrastructure, hiring scouts, etc  to do all these new things is cheap? 

No team has $2M other than the Orioles. 

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I just keep coming back to "nowhere near up to the standards that I want" in re: to the DR facility. Strong words. Reminds me of the MacPhail/ST facilities thing. 

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2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Right, more biometrics than in-game performance data.  I could certainly see the usefulness there.  I almost see that more as scouting than statistics.

It’s a blend, the trick is figuring out what can currently be measured objectively that has predictive value and what a human scout can provide subjective data on that has predictive value and combining those things into your player acquisition model.

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11 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

So building the infrastructure, hiring scouts, etc  to do all these new things is cheap? 

No team has $2M other than the Orioles

Yeah but other teams have offered Sanchez $2 million if he waits until next year.   

Yes hiring scouts is very cheap. You would be surprised how little they make. Even a top programmer is going to cost you less than $200k a year.   I am not sure what infrastructure they have but as I posted from the article in 2015 that 15 teams had recently built new facilities in DR for an average cost of $4 million. The most expensive facility was only $8 million So yes that is cheap.   It isn't something you only use one year like a Trumbo salary.  So if you get 25 years use out of the building the costs are next to nothing per year.  

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My note on the signing or subsequent failure to sign Yolbert Sanchez.

Yes, the Orioles have enough money that if they wanted to back up the truck they could be 99.9% certain of signing him.

But think of it this way, what if the they scout him and assess the reports and data and determine that a player of that caliber is worth a 1.75M bonus. Let’s say another team assessed him move favorably and is willing to offer 2-2.5M if he waits until July 2. Sanchez tells the O’s 2.5M or I wait. 

This is obviously hypothetical, but in that situation and you are Elias, let’s just say given the green light to spend freely internationally on a team the historically has refused to do so and been skeptical of the market in general. Do you want your first move to be overpaying a guy the you see as a lower bonus talent?

That may not be what’s happening here, but that’s a realistic explanation if he’s not signed given everything we know.

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16 minutes ago, interloper said:

I just keep coming back to "nowhere near up to the standards that I want" in re: to the DR facility. Strong words. Reminds me of the MacPhail/ST facilities thing. 

I can't even find a photo of the Orioles facility. The Yankees facility looks nice.

The Phillies and Twins just opened a joint facility that cost $18 million:

https://www.mlb.com/phillies/news/phillies-open-baseball-academy-in-dominican/c-213691822


 

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10 minutes ago, atomic said:

Tons of money yet but it is strange that no one cares how cheap the team has become. 

I think it's strange that you take this position having lived through the 1998-2011 period where the Orioles were above-average in payroll but had a comically inept farm system, horrid infrastructure, and were 69-93 every year.

Actually it's not that strange, you just like being the guy who knows the current plan (whatever that is) is wrong.  What percentage of Duquette moves did you cheer?  10%?  Were you happy with the endless string of Danys Baez signings a dozen years ago because it kept the team from losing 100?  I'm sure you weren't, even though that's exactly what you're asking for now.

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1 minute ago, atomic said:

Yeah but other teams have offered Sanchez $2 million if he waits until next year.   

Yes hiring scouts is very cheap. You would be surprised how little they make. Even a top programmer is going to cost you less than $200k a year.   I am not sure what infrastructure they have but as I posted from the article in 2015 that 15 teams had recently built new facilities in DR for an average cost of $4 million. The most expensive facility was only $8 million So yes that is cheap.   It isn't something you only use one year like a Trumbo salary.  So if you get 25 years use out of the building the costs are next to nothing per year.  

So what is your point?  Just because teams have more money next year does that mean Sanchez will get that much? The last thing the Orioles should do is let his agent control things. If he thinks he will get more elsewhere good for him. 

I was using scouts as an example of increased costs. They are rebuilding the entire organization.

I really don’t know what you are getting at. Should they waste money on FA’s? 

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10 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

My note on the signing or subsequent failure to sign Yolbert Sanchez.

Yes, the Orioles have enough money that if they wanted to back up the truck they could be 99.9% certain of signing him.

 But think of it this way, what if the they scout him and assess the reports and data and determine that a player of that caliber is worth a 1.75M bonus. Let’s say another team assessed him move favorably and is willing to offer 2-2.5M if he waits until July 2. Sanchez tells the O’s 2.5M or I wait. 

 This is obviously hypothetical, but in that situation and you are Elias, let’s just say given the green light to spend freely internationally on a team the historically has refused to do so and been skeptical of the market in general. Do you want your first move to be overpaying a guy the you see as a lower bonus talent?

 That may not be what’s happening here, but that’s a realistic explanation if he’s not signed given everything we know.

If Sanchez is worth 1.75 million he is worth 2.5 million.  Really if you think he can contribute at the major league level you give him the 2.5 million.   He is 21.  This isn't a 16 or 18 year old player you are talking about.  

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2 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Should they waste money on FA’s? 

The gist of atomic's position is yes, the O's should waste money on FAs. He doesn't have any opinion on the marginal value of a $ spent by the Orioles. It matters not if our $ have the financial value of a Venezuelan bolivar, we should spend whatever it takes on whoever will take it, right now. 

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