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weams

Fangraphs: July 2 Prospects International

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In the past, hard pools and early deals created a different problem: an unscrupulous trainer could put a child on steroids to secure a verbal deal, cycle the player off prior to a test being administered when he signed at age 16, and and successfully alter a team’s perception of the player’s true talent. That problem is largely gone, as clubs can now get steroid tests on any player they scout and, in some cases, get in a half dozen tests before signing day to allay any fears they have. This has its own drawbacks, but the threat of the test alone seems to have reduced PED use in many cases. Top players also go through multiple levels of identity and paperwork verification, often starting over a year before they are eligible to sign.

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In the past, some trainers were also known to stop training their players once a verbal deal was struck. After a few signing cycles of some clubs being displeased when they got out of shape prospects on signing day, trainers are now incentivized to keep players well-conditioned so that their bonus aren’t adjusted down. Adjusting bonuses is a rare but accepted practice if the club feels the trainer hasn’t held up his end of the bargain in training the player between a verbal deal and signing on the dotted line.

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There isn’t a clear solution for early deals that doesn’t involve a draft, but a draft would mean that players would no longer get to pick their employer, and have even less leverage in bonus negotiation. And the bust rate for players this young is too high for MLB to cry “competitive balance” without pretense.

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3 hours ago, weams said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/updated-july-2-prospect-rankings/

All signs point to the Orioles being highly involved. 

What signs are those?   Elias has pretty much said that most of the top guys for July 2, 2019 already have informal agreements with clubs.    I think we’ll be more active this year than in the past, but I’d guess there’s little chance that any of the big bonus guys will be signing with us.   

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3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What signs are those?   Elias has pretty much said that most of the top guys for July 2, 2019 already have informal agreements with clubs.    I think we’ll be more active this year than in the past, but I’d guess there’s little chance that any of the big bonus guys will be signing with us.   

Having an informal agreement in place before July 2nd doesn't mean they have an informal agreement in place on February 12th.  The O's should be able to make some noise, given their pool size.

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11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Having an informal agreement in place before July 2nd doesn't mean they have an informal agreement in place on February 12th.  The O's should be able to make some noise, given their pool size.

My impression from things I’ve read is that a lot of these guys have informal agreements even 1-2 years in advance.    But that’s not to say that (1) it’s all of them, (2) there might not be some late bloomers who nobody bothered with who reveal themselves this spring/summer, or (3) some guys might back out of their informal agreements in the face of more money.   

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5 minutes ago, jerios55 said:

So I hope the Orioles are involved, but I don't see them mentioned in this article.  Am I missing the signs?

Thats what I read too. All of the top guys are expected to sign with other clubs. Maybe the O's should top one of their offers.  

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11 minutes ago, elextrano8 said:

TBH that was a rather depressing read. It doesn't sound like we'll have a chance at any top guys for several years.

There are a good number of big name guys now that weren't the big names early.  Let's start with a few of those and I'll be happy.

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3 hours ago, weams said:

Any feedback?

1. The Orioles aren't mentioned anywhere in the article.

2. That being said, I expect us to be active with guys who aren't big names, and that's perfectly fine with me. A lot of those guys turn out to be great ball players. It just takes a while.

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