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How good can the 2019 Orioles be?

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On 2/14/2019 at 11:24 AM, jjnono said:

I think this team will be hard pressed NOT to lose 100 games or more.  I'm not expecting any sort of meaningful improvement in the Win/Loss columns.  That said, I would like to see improvement over the course of the season, especially from players that figure to be part of the next 3-5 years of the team's future.  I'd be willing to split the season into thirds and see how we progress... or don't.  Ultimately I would just like to see us establish some positive talent progression, regardless of where we wind up in the standings.  If at the end of the next 2-3 seasons we can be increasingly excited for the next season, I'm good....

Well said - particularly because I agree with everything you said.  

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10 minutes ago, jtschrei said:

Right. I'm criticizing the union.

Everyone should benefit from the union, not just the high earners.  

Well who are we defining as the high earners here?  Obviously the remaining guys like Bryce, Manny, Kimbrel, Keuchel...but are you considering a guy like Jones a high earner?

I think the union thinks (probably correctly) that a rising tide raises all boats.  They want to be able to say that new records are being set for highest salaries but also want to know that the mid-tier players are getting theirs, too.  

But you are correct, it's reapportioning resources.  It's spending money more efficiently, which the union is not interested in.  The owners and fans care about a guy like Pujols or Davis not even coming remotely close to living up to their contracts.  Owners and fans recognize that Pujols and Davis are a waste and that money could have been better spent elsewhere.  The union doesn't care about that at all.

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46 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I highly doubt the money is getting spent. Some is, for sure, but we're not pouring the extra $50 million we're not spending on this season's payroll into minor league statistical analyses and international bonuses. 

A couple years ago the O's payroll was over $150M.  This year it'll probably be around... what... $70M?  My guess is that at best case they'll bump up spending on infrastructure and scouting and analytics by $15-20M.  They're probably pocketing $50M they would have spent with 2017's payroll.  Then using Paul Beeston's "standard accounting practices" to claim a small annual profit.

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1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

I highly doubt the money is getting spent. Some is, for sure, but we're not pouring the extra $50 million we're not spending on this season's payroll into minor league statistical analyses and international bonuses. 

Here’s the thing people miss: just because the team spends less money in 2019 doesn’t mean that any unspent money disappears.    It can be used in subsequent years, when it will make a difference.   Just look at the Astros, who never had a payroll higher than $105 mm before Jeff Luhnow arrived.   He pared the payroll down to $38 mm and $15 mm his first two years, but the last two years he’s spent $157 mm and $172 mm and this year it’s looking about $157 mm again.   Basically, he’s taking a big chunk of the money saved in the early years and spending it now.    

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23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here’s the thing people miss: just because the team spends less money in 2019 doesn’t mean that any unspent money disappears.    It can be used in subsequent years, when it will make a difference.   Just look at the Astros, who never had a payroll higher than $105 mm before Jeff Luhnow arrived.   He pared the payroll down to $38 mm and $15 mm his first two years, but the last two years he’s spent $157 mm and $172 mm and this year it’s looking about $157 mm again.   Basically, he’s taking a big chunk of the money saved in the early years and spending it now.    

That's a generous interpretation. The rebuild no doubt generated significant new revenue as well. There's no doubt (in my mind at least) that ownership could both spend some of that saved money at a later date AND pocket a fair proportion of it. In the context of this discussion, I can definitely understand why the union/players don't like the approach.

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Here’s the thing people miss: just because the team spends less money in 2019 doesn’t mean that any unspent money disappears.    It can be used in subsequent years, when it will make a difference.   Just look at the Astros, who never had a payroll higher than $105 mm before Jeff Luhnow arrived.   He pared the payroll down to $38 mm and $15 mm his first two years, but the last two years he’s spent $157 mm and $172 mm and this year it’s looking about $157 mm again.   Basically, he’s taking a big chunk of the money saved in the early years and spending it now.    

I kind of doubt that's what happens.  I think they scale payroll to more-or-less what that year's revenues are projected to be.  Maybe they have a contingency fund.  But I don't think they have $160M sitting in some investment account and earmarked for $40M in extra payroll beyond revenues in the next four years.  I think the Astros are bringing in about $170M annually that they can devote to payroll.

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Interesting article from the Athletic talking with Alex Cobb...pretty realistic.

 

“I know this is a hard question to answer, but if you could have seen into the future and seen the rebuild coming, would you have signed a long-term deal with the Orioles in 2018?

It is a tough question to answer, because you don’t know the facts. I was told we were going to compete every year I was here. Nothing I can do but take that for what it is and think that I’m being told the truth. But I don’t regret anything. Like I said, I’m very thankful for the opportunity I have right now. I’ll be honest. If I pitched better last year, I’m not here. They are going to trade me. So, I have nobody to be upset with about that. And, so, I don’t regret anything. I really don’t. It’s hard to say I could regret anything when I look around at the life that I have right now.”

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9 hours ago, Frobby said:

Didn’t work so well last year.   

And I was actually optimistic about last season...Thats why we were so bad...thats DEFINITELY the reason.

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8 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

And I was actually optimistic about last season...Thats why we were so bad...thats DEFINITELY the reason.

Just a few more sacrifice fly balls and they would of been right back in a few games.

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11 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

A couple years ago the O's payroll was over $150M.  This year it'll probably be around... what... $70M?  My guess is that at best case they'll bump up spending on infrastructure and scouting and analytics by $15-20M.  They're probably pocketing $50M they would have spent with 2017's payroll.  Then using Paul Beeston's "standard accounting practices" to claim a small annual profit.

There is the "owner's fee".  Is that going to Peter or the sons now?

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5 hours ago, tntoriole said:

Interesting article from the Athletic talking with Alex Cobb...pretty realistic.

 

“I know this is a hard question to answer, but if you could have seen into the future and seen the rebuild coming, would you have signed a long-term deal with the Orioles in 2018?

 

Would he still take the O's 4 year/$60 mill deal over another team's 3 year/$36 mill or less.  He would have done that for sure.

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