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Luke-OH

Ryan McKenna 2019

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30 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

His OPS was 1.023 in 67 games at Frederick last season. .900 the rest of the way is attainable 

I enjoy that a couple of you guys really like McKenna, but those 67 games are a huge outlier for his career. McKenna has a .393 slugging percentage at Bowie this year. His career slugging percentage in 1720 PA is .395. Outside of those 67 games at Frederick, his highest OPS at any level was .712. I see something very different when I look at McKenna's performance than you see. 1720 PA's is a pretty significant sample size. For comparison Mountcastle has 1990 PA's. Trey Mancini had 2053 minor league PA's. I hope that McKenna stays hot and starts to look intriguing again, but when you are approaching 2000 minor league PA's it seems like what you see is what you get for the vast majority of players. Yes, he's still relatively young, but he's not younger than other true prospects at AA. I hope he becomes a major league regular, but at this point I would definitely bet against it if I had to put money on it. 

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Just now, Ohfan67 said:

I enjoy that a couple of you guys really like McKenna, but those 67 games are a huge outlier for his career. McKenna has a .393 slugging percentage at Bowie this year. His career slugging percentage in 1720 PA is .395. Outside of those 67 games at Frederick, his highest OPS at any level was .712. I see something very different when I look at McKenna's performance than you see. 1720 PA's is a pretty significant sample size. For comparison Mountcastle has 1990 PA's. Trey Mancini had 2053 minor league PA's. I hope that McKenna stays hot and starts to look intriguing again, but when you are approaching 2000 minor league PA's it seems like what you see is what you get for the vast majority of players. Yes, he's still relatively young, but he's not younger than other true prospects at AA. I hope he becomes a major league regular, but at this point I would definitely bet against it if I had to put money on it. 

He's one year older than Kyle Stowers

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5 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

He's one year older than Kyle Stowers

And four days older than Mountcastle. I can play that game too. :)

 

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1 minute ago, Ohfan67 said:

And four days older than Mountcastle. I can play that game too. :)

 

Mountcastle, the 1st Rd Pick designated hitter?

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3 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Mountcastle, the 1st Rd Pick designated hitter?

Kyle Stowers, the college junior? Again, I can play that game too. 

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But seriously, I should have said "many" real prospects are similar age at AA. The Baysox have four or so players that are 21-22 and another four or so that are 23. Austin Hays is 23, for example. 22 is not super young for a prospect at AA...as in, not young enough that you can make it a big excuse for lack of performance or make it a huge qualifier for poor performance. 

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3 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Kyle Stowers, the college junior? Again, I can play that game too. 

Kyle Stowers the 21 year old center fielder in the O’s organization, currently playing short season A ball.

i don’t believe he’s in college right now.

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2 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

Kyle Stowers the 21 year old center fielder in the O’s organization, currently playing short season A ball.

i don’t believe he’s in college right now.

Edit: if you want to discuss McKenna, then I would enjoy  reading that discussion. 

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1 hour ago, DirtyBird said:

Kyle Stowers the 21 year old center fielder in the O’s organization, currently playing short season A ball.

i don’t believe he’s in college right now.

By the way, I'm not trying to be overly negative or tickle all over your enthusiasm for McKenna. It's definitely a glass half full/empty thing.

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8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

He still profiles as a 4th outfielder for me due to his defensive skills, speed and a little pop. 

I feel like that’s less than his mid case scenario, which is more like a cup of coffee but never a contributor who really sticks. It is nice for him to have that defensive profile though. That will afford him more opportunities than most get.

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2 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

Kyle Stowers the 21 year old center fielder in the O’s organization, currently playing short season A ball.

i don’t believe he’s in college right now.

Dude. That’s the same Kyle Stowers. He was drafted as a junior in college. That’s why he’s 21. 

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Another good game for McKenna yesterday, 3 for 5 with two doubles.   OPS up to .710.   In his last 13 games he’s hitting .340/.400/.720 with 10 extra base hits.    

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On ‎7‎/‎3‎/‎2019 at 10:17 AM, Ohfan67 said:

I enjoy that a couple of you guys really like McKenna, but those 67 games are a huge outlier for his career. McKenna has a .393 slugging percentage at Bowie this year. His career slugging percentage in 1720 PA is .395. Outside of those 67 games at Frederick, his highest OPS at any level was .712. I see something very different when I look at McKenna's performance than you see. 1720 PA's is a pretty significant sample size. For comparison Mountcastle has 1990 PA's. Trey Mancini had 2053 minor league PA's. I hope that McKenna stays hot and starts to look intriguing again, but when you are approaching 2000 minor league PA's it seems like what you see is what you get for the vast majority of players. Yes, he's still relatively young, but he's not younger than other true prospects at AA. I hope he becomes a major league regular, but at this point I would definitely bet against it if I had to put money on it. 

There are multiple ways to look at McKenna's stats.  He has been young for his age at every stop in some cases 3.3 years below league average.  Also, at several stops, despite mediocre looking numbers, McKenna has actually performed better than league average.  In particular, I would point out his 500+ PAs in Delmarva in 2017 when he was 1.5 years younger than league average - McKenna 256/331/380/712 while league average was 250/317/369/686 - and I would venture that average numbers at Delmarva were below league average because of that stadium.  And McKenna was 3.3 years below league average when he put up below league average numbers in Bowie last year after the hot half season in Frederick.  McKenna is putting up above league average numbers in Bowie this year - due to higher slugging at the moment - while 2.2 years below league average age.

A couple thoughts:

 - Delmarva in particular can really skew results for our hitters, particularly challenged high school hitters who are still developing power.

 - McKenna has actually been better than league average while being 1.5-3.3 years below league average for a majority of his minor league PAs.  Comparing RM to a a college draft pick like Mancini - who was older than league average at several stops - is not a good comp for me.  Further, Mountcastle, like Mancini, is a 1B power profile.

We will have to see how McKenna finishes up the season and whether this is just a hot streak or if he has figured things out at AA and will produce well-above average numbers the rest of the way.  Not going to put a bow on this with some end of post sunshine, but I think the minor league numbers in the post above lack the required context for this particular player.

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