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Ryan Mountcastle 2019

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On 7/5/2019 at 6:07 AM, RZNJ said:

This idea that Mountcastle is "mashing" in AAA is laughable.  He was 35th in OPS last time I checked.  No comparison to another player is going to determine his future.  School actually had similar BB:K ratio in AAA but he played at 21.  He also had 1:2 ratio overall as opposed to 1:4 (1:7 this year) for RM.  School has a .740 career OPS but also added some defensive value which RM is unlikely to. How about Adam Jones who played AAA at 21/22 and put up a 967 OPS good for 4th in the PCL.  His ratio was 1:3 that year.  His career OPS is .780 but he also played a key defensive position.  Schoop and Jones plate discipline numbers didn't noticeably improve in the majors.  Just because Mountcastle is hitting .300 in AAA this year is no reason to suspect he'll hit .300 in the majors.  On the contrary, I think you'll see his BA take a significant nosedive and his OPS and OBP along with it.   His home run and RBI numbers are nice but if you look a little deeper it doesn't bode well.

You make some solid points. I agree his walk rate is concerning, while his strikeouts are not. A few thoughts:

The biggest difference there is Mountcastle uses the entire field much more. Schoop and Jones are extreme pull hitters, for the most part. Both were at their best when they used RF more, though. Buck mentioned it many many times over the years. Ryan’s ability to use the whole field may help him avoid some of the same pitfalls of those two. 

Norfolk is an notorious extreme pitchers park. I would love to see what Ryan’s day to day trackman data is, his exit velocities and what his barrel % is. I would like to know what the % of balls he swings at, and how many swing and misses he has. I would like to know how many pitches he sees in each at bat. How is his pitch recognition? Is he able to make solid adjustments in his approach? I would want to know all of that before I read too much into what the numbers mean for a 21 year old in AAA. Overall, I find it quite encouraging when I look at his numbers. And I think he’ll continue to fill out some and add more power. 

And perhaps he ends up in LF, so there can be some defensive value. He is a pretty solid athlete. 

My thought, hope, is he will become more and more selective. I wonder if he is a victim of his aggressiveness and barrel ability. For instance, does he swing at and hit pitches that he cannot do damage with early in counts. He certainly has not shown any signs of improving his walk rate, but it can certainly be done. We’ll see. 

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On 7/5/2019 at 6:07 AM, RZNJ said:

This idea that Mountcastle is "mashing" in AAA is laughable.  He was 35th in OPS last time I checked.  No comparison to another player is going to determine his future.  School actually had similar BB:K ratio in AAA but he played at 21.  He also had 1:2 ratio overall as opposed to 1:4 (1:7 this year) for RM.  School has a .740 career OPS but also added some defensive value which RM is unlikely to. How about Adam Jones who played AAA at 21/22 and put up a 967 OPS good for 4th in the PCL.  His ratio was 1:3 that year.  His career OPS is .780 but he also played a key defensive position.  Schoop and Jones plate discipline numbers didn't noticeably improve in the majors.  Just because Mountcastle is hitting .300 in AAA this year is no reason to suspect he'll hit .300 in the majors.  On the contrary, I think you'll see his BA take a significant nosedive and his OPS and OBP along with it.   His home run and RBI numbers are nice but if you look a little deeper it doesn't bode well.

Thank you. I don't want to see Mountcastle at all in 2019. 

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Hit his 16th homer yesterday.  3 walks and 44 strikeouts since June 1.  

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I feel like the conversation about Mountcastle is almost too binary. My concern isn't that he'll come to the majors and be a scrub, it's just that I don't think he'll come to the majors and become an all-league player. I don't know how the scouting types characterize what I'm thinking, but I'm basically predicting he'll be a C+/B- type of player. He won't have a ton of positional value. His hit tool will be advanced, but his strike zone management will limit his OPS upside. I'll be happy to have in on the field, but don't expect any top 10 MVP seasons even at his peak. He'll essentially be Renato Nunez with a higher BA and maybe a little higher OBP, as driven by BA.

I like that player, but I'm not going to over value it. That's why I'm not bullish on him in prospect rankings even though I do like his production. If you use Tony's criteria of who I'd rather have in the org, I think it would actually sink him even farther because I think his profile is relatively easy to replace. Just see Mancini, Nunez and Trumbo, when healthy for somewhat comparable guys.

 

[Edit: I should add that his profile really does improve for me if he can be an above average OFer. In that case, you start to compare him to a guy like Diaz and weigh the pros/cons of each w/r/t rankings.]

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13 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

Mountcastle hit his 17th homer today, but no walks and he struck out once so we should probably release him. 😂

 

I can't wait for OH to complain that he doesn't take walks just like they did with AJ. 

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3 hours ago, MDtransplant757 said:

I can't wait for OH to complain that he doesn't take walks just like they did with AJ. 

The complaints about Mountcastle’s walk rate started on page two of this thread, and were in conjunction with his being named the International League Player of the Week. I’d bet drachmas to Danish pastries that you can find critiques of his walk rate in plenty of prior threads besides.

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I will point out his walk rate forever. It’s the difference between a #2/3 hitter and a #6/7 on a good team. I’ll take a home grown #6/7 hitter any day and twice on Sunday, but that and his lack of position temper enthusiasm.

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5 hours ago, MDtransplant757 said:

I can't wait for OH to complain that he doesn't take walks just like they did with AJ. 

They’re already doing it.    

Truth is, Mountcastle walks less than AJ did, and he’s got less room  than AJ for those kinds of flaws since he doesn’t play a premium defensive position.    

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15 hours ago, Frobby said:

They’re already doing it.    

Truth is, Mountcastle walks less than AJ did, and he’s got less room  than AJ for those kinds of flaws since he doesn’t play a premium defensive position.    

Adam Jones was a six time all star.  I don’t think Mountcastle has to be as good as Adam Jones to be a productive player.

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5 hours ago, atomic said:

Adam Jones was a six time all star.  I don’t think Mountcastle has to be as good as Adam Jones to be a productive player.

My point is, an .800ish CF is an all star.   An .800ish 1B/DH is a guy who’s just a so-so player.    And I’m hoping for more than that from Mountcastle, but his lack of plate discipline may limit him to that.    

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4 hours ago, Frobby said:

My point is, an .800ish CF is an all star.   An .800ish 1B/DH is a guy who’s just a so-so player.    And I’m hoping for more than that from Mountcastle, but his lack of plate discipline may limit him to that.    

I know this is the standard line that you really need to mash to be an important contributor at first base, but there are very few players who can be viewed in that way. Just checked the 2019 first basemen and there are only 6-7 guys I’d call real difference makers (Bell, Freeman, Alonso, Hoskins, Rizzo, Santana, Muncy) who are all OPSing north of .880. The next group of guys are Vogelbach, Voit and Christian Walker, all of whom two years ago you’d assume were nothing more than filler and could just as easily disappear into obscurity next season. 

After that, the rest of the league has what we’d then call a so-so player. This isn’t a golden age of power hitting first basemen maulers. If Mountcastle produces 6-8 years of .800-.850 OPS, he’d be in the top 10 first basemen in baseball and I’d happily sign on for that. 

 

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Guys are always looking for perfect players. There are only a few truly complete players. I think it’s fine to discuss prospects and their flaws but some posters take it way too far and constantly beat them up. I usually just ignore their posts. I am very much looking forward to seeing RM succeed in ML

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On 7/19/2019 at 10:01 AM, Frobby said:

They’re already doing it.    

Truth is, Mountcastle walks less than AJ did, and he’s got less room  than AJ for those kinds of flaws since he doesn’t play a premium defensive position.    

Adam Jones had a 7.1% walk rate and Jonathan Schoop had a 7.8% walk rate in the minors. Mountcastle has a career walk rate of 4.4%. Jones and Schoop are two of the more impatient hitters the Orioles have had in recent years yet their walk rate in the minors was still significantly higher than Mountcastle's current walk rate. Plus Mountcastle has a 20% strikeout rate for his career. How many players struck out four and a half times as often as they walked in the minors and went on to be a successful major league hitter? i bet that list is very short. There are a lot of red signs about his offensive skills translating to the majors. 

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4 hours ago, WalkWithElias said:

I know this is the standard line that you really need to mash to be an important contributor at first base, but there are very few players who can be viewed in that way. Just checked the 2019 first basemen and there are only 6-7 guys I’d call real difference makers (Bell, Freeman, Alonso, Hoskins, Rizzo, Santana, Muncy) who are all OPSing north of .880. The next group of guys are Vogelbach, Voit and Christian Walker, all of whom two years ago you’d assume were nothing more than filler and could just as easily disappear into obscurity next season. 

After that, the rest of the league has what we’d then call a so-so player. This isn’t a golden age of power hitting first basemen maulers. If Mountcastle produces 6-8 years of .800-.850 OPS, he’d be in the top 10 first basemen in baseball and I’d happily sign on for that. 

 

I would sign up for that as well.  I think we need to see significant improvement before I would expect those kinds of results.

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