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Means and Straily put pressure on Bundy

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50 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I doubt they are quitting on Bundy this fast.i think it's more likely they option Hess or someone else. Perhaps Castro with Means/Hess going back to the pen

Hess has been our best starter in this short season and was our second best starter after Cobb for the second half of last season.  I don't see him going anywhere. 

Means will likely go back to long relief if we have too many healthy starters assuming Cobb doesn't suffer any setbacks. 

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8 hours ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Last year Bundy was a top 10 pitcher in terms of swinging strikes. He’s in great company on that list, but unfortunately his ERA amongst that group sticks out like a sore thumb. I think it’s because his out pitches suck. His fastball is complete trash. I dunno how he does it.

He’s one big fix away from being a top pitcher in the league. I swear someone in the Orioles org has to know this.

To me, this is the easiest sign to see that he just gasses out. Once the velo, and location drop on the FB, he’s done. 

What if he could be a Chris Devenski type reliever?  If so, he could fetch us a haul in a trade at some point. 

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I don't see them giving up on Bundy as a starter this early in the season...but if Means and Straily continue to have quality starts, I see this move happening sometime in late June or early July.

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I'd be surprised if Bundy is moved out of the rotation anytime soon unless he continues his Tillman-like demise by say Mid-May. The most likely moves are Means to the pen, Phillips to Norfolk.

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16 hours ago, Hallas said:

His career OPSa first time through the lineup is .716.  2nd time through, .852.

This year he's been absolutely atrocious after the first time through.  .514 vs 1.538.

You'd probably be right to think that this year's stats are a bit fluky.  For what it's worth, league average is .686 first time, .768 2nd time.  So the difference is decidedly worse than league average.

Is league average starter only?

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I think Bundy’s biggest problem is throwing too many center cut fastballs.    12.3% of fastballs thrown this year have been dead center:  https://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=12917&position=P&ss=2019-03-31&se=2019-04-11&type=0&hand=all&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit&pitch=FA&season=all&data=pi

Two years ago he was at 8.4%.    So to me, command is the big issue.   

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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I'd be surprised if Bundy is moved out of the rotation anytime soon unless he continues his Tillman-like demise by say Mid-May. The most likely moves are Means to the pen, Phillips to Norfolk.

I don't see Phillips going down.  He has carved out a spot in the pen.  Lucas DFA'd to Norfolk is more likely IMO.

Bundy's move depends on two things IMO.   1) how he pitches tonight.   2) How Elias/Hyde manage.   If they follow the traditional approach that Buck used then you are right.  Bundy will have to be terrible for a long time to move him out for the rotation. But if they have the approach of the starters that are pitching best and therefore help the team win stay in the rotation then Bundy goes to the pen.   We will just have to wait to see which way O's management goes.

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2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't see Phillips going down.  He has carved out a spot in the pen.  Lucas DFA'd to Norfolk is more likely IMO.

Bundy's move depends on two things IMO.   1) how he pitches tonight.   2) How Elias/Hyde manage.   If they follow the traditional approach that Buck used then you are right.  Bundy will have to be terrible for a long time to move him out for the rotation. But if they have the approach of the starters that are pitching best and therefore help the team win stay in the rotation then Bundy goes to the pen.   We will just have to wait to see which way O's management goes.

It isn't just about effectiveness.  You have to look at who is optionable, who you might replace them with and how fresh they are.

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Bundy just had his best start of the season. Straily has had one good start. Means has had 2 good starts, one of which was 3 IP. So I think we're still quite a ways from much pressure being put on Bundy. 

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I’m more than a casual fan, but not the stat driven fan like many here (just no time in a busy life) and I’m probably one of the least versed here on OH about how analytics and the modern tech advances have quickly become part of the coaching. I pick up what I can from you guys who know more and spend more time on it. I did a search and didn’t see this posted anywhere here, so if I am mistaken, my apologies. But this article in Sports Illustraed from a couple of weeks ago gives me a bit of hope regarding the development of our pitchers and hopefully correcting the ones who are already up here and struggling (like the subject here, Bundy). There’s a good bit about how The Astros were early adopters here with the super slow motion HD cameras and measuring devices, but also how The Dodgers have surpassed them. It notes what other teams are now deep into this, how other teams are playing catchup, and there’s also a bit on how Elias’ history and where he hopes to go with this in Baltimore. Lots here about the spin rate, release point, least and most effective pitches vs. specific batters, and overall body angles being coached, corrected and executed in bullpen sessions. Let’s hope this kind of thing is well underway with the Orioles. 

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/03/28/technology-revolution-baseball-trackman-edgertronic-rapsodo

Houston has been recognized as such a successful early adopter that clubs playing catch-up—such as the Angels, Orioles and Braves—hired away more than 20 executives, coaches and analysts from the Astros in just the past five months. “The gap has narrowed,” said one source from a large market club, “but we know how to use it. A lot of teams have it but don’t know how to use it, like the Marlins. They just know they have it. They don’t know what that camera does. They’ve captured [the video]. But they haven’t hired the people to interpret it, apply it to the coaches, then apply it to the players.”

... Under new GM Mike Elias, who was part of Houston’s brain drain, the Orioles hold “spin axis seminars” for pitchers—something the Astros were doing four years ago. Elias was Houston’s scouting director when, in the 2016 draft, the Astros, with the 17th overall pick, selected Forrest Whitley, a high school pitcher from San Antonio. Whitley happened to pitch a high school playoff game in Round Rock, Texas, home of Houston’s Triple A team. The Astros turned on their ballpark’s pitch-tracking device, Trackman, and learned that Whitley had an abnormally high spin rate on his four-seam fastball, a characteristic of the pitch that makes it harder to hit

Since he signed, Whitley has thrown virtually every pitch in games, bullpen sessions and sometimes even in flat-ground throwing sessions with the Edgertronic, Trackman or Rapsodo watching. Whitley, 21, is now the best pitching prospect in baseball, as well as the prototype of a generation fully immersed in technology. “I have friends in all these other organizations, and I tell them I do not throw a bullpen without Rapsodo and Edgertronic, and they think that’s the craziest thing in the whole world,” he says. “I’ve grown up in this organization, and that’s all I’ve known. So it’s hard to imagine getting anything done without them.”

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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

It isn't just about effectiveness.  You have to look at who is optionable, who you might replace them with and how fresh they are.

They have several to pick from that make Phillips safe IMO.   Lucas will probably pass through waivers.  Scott is less effective than Phillips and can be optioned.   Wright is on shaky ground and could go at some point.

I think one pen pitcher goes to get Cobb on the 25 man roster.   One goes to get Ramirez promoted.  He is a better pitcher than Wright or Lucas.  One will go on or about the 24th when I think the O's back 7 pitchers in the pen.

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28 minutes ago, interloper said:

Bundy just had his best start of the season. Straily has had one good start. Means has had 2 good starts, one of which was 3 IP. So I think we're still quite a ways from much pressure being put on Bundy. 

It’s not too encouraging that Bundy’s “best start of the season” consisted of allowing 6 runs, 7 hits and 4 homers in 5+ IP.

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48 minutes ago, NashLumber said:

I’m more than a casual fan, but not the stat driven fan like man here (just no time in a busy life) and I’m probably one of the least versed here on OH about how analytics and the modern tech advances have quickly become part of the coaching. I pick up what I can from you guys who know more and spend more time on it. I did a search and didn’t see this posted anywhere here, so if I am mistaken, my apologies. But this article in Sports Illustraed from a couple of weeks ago gives me a bit of hope regarding the development of our pitchers and hopefully correcting the ones who are already up here and struggling (like the subject here, Bundy). There’s a good bit about how The Astros were early adopters here with the super slow motion HD cameras and measuring devices, but also how The Dodgers have surpassed them. It notes what other teams are now deep into this, how other teams are playing catchup, and there’s also a bit on how Elias’ history and where he hopes to go with this in Baltimore. Lots here about the spin rate, release point, least and most effective pitches vs. specific batters, and overall body angles being coached, corrected and executed in bullpen sessions. Let’s hope this kind of thing is well underway with the Orioles. 

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/03/28/technology-revolution-baseball-trackman-edgertronic-rapsodo

Houston has been recognized as such a successful early adopter that clubs playing catch-up—such as the Angels, Orioles and Braves—hired away more than 20 executives, coaches and analysts from the Astros in just the past five months. “The gap has narrowed,” said one source from a large market club, “but we know how to use it. A lot of teams have it but don’t know how to use it, like the Marlins. They just know they have it. They don’t know what that camera does. They’ve captured [the video]. But they haven’t hired the people to interpret it, apply it to the coaches, then apply it to the players.”

... Under new GM Mike Elias, who was part of Houston’s brain drain, the Orioles hold “spin axis seminars” for pitchers—something the Astros were doing four years ago. Elias was Houston’s scouting director when, in the 2016 draft, the Astros, with the 17th overall pick, selected Forrest Whitley, a high school pitcher from San Antonio. Whitley happened to pitch a high school playoff game in Round Rock, Texas, home of Houston’s Triple A team. The Astros turned on their ballpark’s pitch-tracking device, Trackman, and learned that Whitley had an abnormally high spin rate on his four-seam fastball, a characteristic of the pitch that makes it harder to hit

Since he signed, Whitley has thrown virtually every pitch in games, bullpen sessions and sometimes even in flat-ground throwing sessions with the Edgertronic, Trackman or Rapsodo watching. Whitley, 21, is now the best pitching prospect in baseball, as well as the prototype of a generation fully immersed in technology. “I have friends in all these other organizations, and I tell them I do not throw a bullpen without Rapsodo and Edgertronic, and they think that’s the craziest thing in the whole world,” he says. “I’ve grown up in this organization, and that’s all I’ve known. So it’s hard to imagine getting anything done without them.”

Great bits here. Thanks for sharing. 

I think Bundy has a very long leash, just because of his draft pick status and previous success. 

I wonder if Bundy has embraced the analytics. Does he have Rapsodo and Edgertronic in all his BP sessions? 

I have faith in this coaching staff to help Bundy. 

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3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

It isn't just about effectiveness.  You have to look at who is optionable, who you might replace them with and how fresh they are.

I'd agree with that. Honestly Lucas and Phillips are interchangeable to a point. Whatever one is least fresh probably goes, but if the same, Phillips probably because he can be optioned.

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By the way, I read yesterday that next year the minimum period for optioning a player will increase from 10 to 15 days.     So it’s going to be harder to apply the Norfolk shuttle strategy.   

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