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Frobby

Alex Wells 2019

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6 minutes ago, Punchandjudy said:

If I need to explain what a non sequitur is please let me know.  I usually think people know what google is, and should not need to explain it.  In the above “debate,” introducing the ML baseball into the argument is a non sequitur.  It does not change the argument as it applies to everyone equally; but again if you think it makes your point fine, you win.  Except that you don’t, unless you are comparing apples to oranges. 

I like Alex Wells.  I wish he had a higher K rate but I will say his success at a young age relative to his competition warrants another look as to his prospect status as John Means has shown us all.

 

When Wells can show me his pitch to contact approach can work with ML balls is when I will consider him a prospect.  His current game does not appear to translate well to the ML level.

 

 

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57 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

When Wells can show me his pitch to contact approach can work with ML balls is when I will consider him a prospect.  His current game does not appear to translate well to the ML level.

 

 

I think he can still be a successful back end starter at the major league level without having a high strikeout rate. 

Extremely low walk rate throughout his minor league career and they aren't squaring him up.  0.97 WHIP.  Only 37 hits in 50 innings. 1 HR allowed on the season.  He wasn't dominant last season and I think we forgot how good he was in Delmarva as a 20 year old.  Looks like Frederick was the outlier.  

His strikeout rate isn't even that bad.  Averaging around 7 K per 9.  If this was ten years ago, maybe even five years ago that would be considered fine.  Chris Tillman's K/9 was 6.7 for his career and he was considered a power pitcher. 

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9 hours ago, Punchandjudy said:

I like Alex Wells.  I wish he had a higher K rate but I will say his success at a young age relative to his competition warrants another look as to his prospect status as John Means has shown us all.

Wells has been more successful throughout his MiL career than Means ever was.

Means

Aberdeen (age 21): 3.65 ERA

Delmarva (age 22): 3.50 ERA

Frederick (age 22😞 6.41 ERA

Frederick (age 23): 1.80 ERA

Bowie (age 23): 4.69 ERA

Bowie (age 24): 4.11 ERA

Bowie (age 25): 4.30 ERA

Norfolk (age 25): 3.48 ERA

Wells

Aberdeen (age 19): 2.15 ERA

Delmarva (age 20): 2.38 ERA

Frederick (age 21): 3.47 ERA 

Bowie (age 22): 1.61 ERA

I see Wells as a very different case than Means.    He’s been much more successful, at younger ages, than Means was.    In Wells’ case you have to look past his impressive stats and worry about whether his stuff will play at higher levels; in Means’ case he never had impressive stats to begin with.  But, his fastball always was a bit faster than Wells’ (and has ticked up further this year), and he improved his change-up immensely over the off-season.    So his success doesn’t tell me much about Wells’ chances.      Wells’ chances stand on their own merits.     That said, he keeps having success and what he’s done at Bowie so far is very impressive.     I wouldn’t mind promoting him to Norfolk at the all star break.

 

 

 

 

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I don't know what the numbers say, but it seems to me that pitchers who can't throw hard are even less likely than ever to be successful in the majors.  

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We've been waiting for Wells to reach a level where hitters figure out his stuff for 4 seasons... and he's having the best season of his career. Best ERA, WHIP under 1, lowest batting average against. He's allowed 1 home run this season. Hi-A to Double-A is supposed to be the biggest jump when working through the farm system and he's seemingly getting better. 

Keep giving him the ball and we'll see how long before hitters finally figure him out. 

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12 hours ago, 52520Andrew said:

He is our 21st ranked prospect according to the site and has taken a step forward according to this:

http://www.orioleshangout.com/2019/06/02/pre-draft-orioles-prospect-update/

I'd say he has gotten a little prospect love and likely will continue to if he keeps his production up. 

I think this is right. Assuming he keeps it up, his overall ranking will go up by a fair amount. I'm guessing he'd be low-mid teens in an improved system. That's a good thing.

I want to believe there's still plenty of room for a guy like this in the majors. I feel like sometimes we compare a guy like Wells to a guy like Hall. They're two totally different types of pitchers though. How does Wells compare to the few successful soft tossers that are out there? In the absence of physical projection, that would be what I'd like to see to help me understand better whether his odds are good or whether his ceiling is something less than a ML-caliber starting pitcher.

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On 5/20/2019 at 10:13 PM, Frobby said:

You know what’s annoying?   The Baysox have a twitter feed where they post game updates about once an inning, but they didn’t even mention that Wells had been pulled, much less explain what happened or give any other information about his condition.   

I stopped following several minor league affiliates on twitter because most of the posts were just promotions related. 

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Wells wasn’t really at the top of his game today, but managed to go 6 innings, allowing 3 runs on 10 hits and a walk (and one HBP), striking out 2.   Despite all the baserunners, Wells only threw 86 pitches in 6 innings.   

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Wells began his second half by throwing 5.1 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K’s.    His ERA stands at 1.90.    

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On 6/9/2019 at 11:51 PM, ChuckS said:

I think he can still be a successful back end starter at the major league level without having a high strikeout rate. 

Extremely low walk rate throughout his minor league career and they aren't squaring him up.  0.97 WHIP.  Only 37 hits in 50 innings. 1 HR allowed on the season.  He wasn't dominant last season and I think we forgot how good he was in Delmarva as a 20 year old.  Looks like Frederick was the outlier.  

His strikeout rate isn't even that bad.  Averaging around 7 K per 9.  If this was ten years ago, maybe even five years ago that would be considered fine.  Chris Tillman's K/9 was 6.7 for his career and he was considered a power pitcher. 

Low walk rate and very low home run rate is a good alternate path to major league success.  I wish Bundy could learn this path.  Something close to 50% of runs are now scored by HR.  Surrendering almost no HR is a huge advantage as a pitcher.  I would propose it is almost as big an advantage as striking out a large number of hitters.

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Great report, Tony.   I’ve always rooted hard for this kid.   Hopefully he makes the Show and proves his stuff will play up there.   

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7/6, another impressive start.  5 IP in a rain shortened game.  1 unearned run on 2 hits, 0 walks, 6 Ks.  66 pitches, 54 strikes.  ERA down to 1.92.  From a purely statistical standpoint he has little left to prove at AA.  I know this regime has been really guarded with the promotions but I've gotta think he's due for AAA soon.

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9 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

7/6, another impressive start.  5 IP in a rain shortened game.  1 unearned run on 2 hits, 0 walks, 6 Ks.  66 pitches, 54 strikes.  ERA down to 1.92.  From a purely statistical standpoint he has little left to prove at AA.  I know this regime has been really guarded with the promotions but I've gotta think he's due for AAA soon.

You're saying he threw only 12 balls in 5 innings!? I want to see what he can do in Norfolk, and now.

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