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TonySoprano

Are Baseballs "Juiced" This Season?

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David Segui says in a current USA Today article published 07/08/19  that  at least 60% of current MLB players are on the juice.

I'd disagree with him there. I think it's at least 90%,

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On 7/6/2019 at 9:20 AM, DrungoHazewood said:

Of course this assume baseball wants fewer homers.  That doesn't seem to be the case.  They could just un-juice the balls.

And baseball doesn't get it. They think that the fans want more homers. The fans think they want more homers. The problem then is that the more homers happen, the more diluted they become, and fans don't care.

I see the same problems in the NBA and NFL. The NBA is really emphasizing the 3-point shot at the expense of basic fundamentals. The NFL wants to be a pass happy league, but it leads to a lot of 2-yard dump offs.

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17 hours ago, Maverick Hiker said:

I suspect the players are juiced, rather than the baseballs.  

Remember the last time there was an unexplained surge in HR  like this in MLB.  McGwire, Canseco,, Bonds, Sosa, all of them turned out to be on the juice. As I get older, I see that history often repeats itself.

Here is what I suspect is  happening. The majority of MLB hitters and pitchers are now on PED.  Only it's different  from the old McGwire days,  today's PED don't bulk the players up to look like the Incredible Hulk.  Also the drug makers are so far ahead of the weak testing program in MLB that players will very rarely get caught.   '

The pitchers are throwing faster fastballs, because they are on PED,.  Because the batters are also on PED,  when they do connect ,the ball leaves the bat with greater velocity and often leaves  the park. Hence strikeouts are up due increased velocity of pitchers on PED,  and the HR are up due to batters on PED. 

No, the balls are 100% juiced. The numbers in A,A+ and AA haven't changed, but the numbers in AAA have gone crazy. The only thing different in AAA this year is they switched to the same ball as MLB.

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20 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

No, the balls are 100% juiced. The numbers in A,A+ and AA haven't changed, but the numbers in AAA have gone crazy. The only thing different in AAA this year is they switched to the same ball as MLB.

I think that's one of the strongest pieces of evidence for it being the primarily the ball.  We have an absolutely clear case where Ball A was used in AAA last year, and with the same basic level of play we have Ball B this year.  This year homers are up 56% in the IL, and 52% in the PCL!

You're going to have a really hard time convincing me that everyone in AAA suddenly started taking undetectable radioactive industrial steroids just this past offseason.

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45 minutes ago, Maverick Hiker said:

That's fine in laying out a theoretical case where PEDs might have an impact.  But there's no evidence.  No failed tests.  No one admitting taking anything.  Mainly a bunch of guys from the early 2000s talking about how it has to be PEDs just like back in their day.

The AAA homer rate means that perhaps PEDs are part of this, but absolutely, without any doubt the ball is a huge piece of it.

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20 hours ago, SteveA said:

Rosenthal mentions in an article in the Athletic that a lot of GMs are telling MLB they need to know, one way or the other, what the plans are going forward for baseballs next year and beyond.  Will it be status quo or will some attempt be made to de-juice them?  They need to determine the hitting environment so they can determine what types of hitters, and pitchers, to pursue as the trading deadline approaches.

A related thing to think about is if they deaden the ball, who is this era's Larry Sheets?  Players will have different reactions to playing with a juiced or un-juiced ball.  It's not going to be across the board and linear.  If we drop back 30% or 40% to a more historically normal home run rate there will be players whose careers crater.

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14 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

That's fine in laying out a theoretical case where PEDs might have an impact.  But there's no evidence.  No failed tests.  No one admitting taking anything.  Mainly a bunch of guys from the early 2000s talking about how it has to be PEDs just like back in their day.

The AAA homer rate means that perhaps PEDs are part of this, but absolutely, without any doubt the ball is a huge piece of it.

Segui seemed to indicate he keeps in touch with current players and he said easily 60% of todays players are juiced. He also indicated the ball is "hot", but that the main cause of this is players on PED.

The article also explained that players who were caught are usually not caught by MLB's testing program, but they make other mistakes that lead to them being caught.  There are so many ways to get around the MLB PED testing, it's just not working well.

 

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22 minutes ago, Maverick Hiker said:

Segui seemed to indicate he keeps in touch with current players and he said easily 60% of todays players are juiced. He also indicated the ball is "hot", but that the main cause of this is players on PED.

The article also explained that players who were caught are usually not caught by MLB's testing program, but they make other mistakes that lead to them being caught.  There are so many ways to get around the MLB PED testing, it's just not working well.

 

I agree. There's always going to be something that the tests haven't caught up to.

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26 minutes ago, Maverick Hiker said:

Segui seemed to indicate he keeps in touch with current players and he said easily 60% of todays players are juiced. He also indicated the ball is "hot", but that the main cause of this is players on PED.

The article also explained that players who were caught are usually not caught by MLB's testing program, but they make other mistakes that lead to them being caught.  There are so many ways to get around the MLB PED testing, it's just not working well.

 

I think Segui has it backwards.  Some players are on stuff, but I don't see any reason why that would change year-to-year.  But one change in the ball and immediately 50% more homers in AAA.  PEDs are the background, the ball is the overwhelming factor.

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The parameters for the co efficient of restitution of the MLB ball, allow for a variation in flight of up to 10 feet or more. So they can change the ball to increase or decrease the number of HR and still say the ball is the same. They've been doing this for years. Steroids? We don't need no stinkin' steroids!

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o

 

The AL starting pitcher for tomorrow's All-Star game is Justin Verlander.

Verlander leads the Major Leagues in Home Runs Ceded (26), but he also leads the Major Leagues in WHIP (0.813) and the American League in Hits-Per-9 Innings (5.400) ......... hence, I would presume that that is part of the reason for his very solid ERA of 2.98 (he gives up round-trippers, but not a lot of base-runners.)

 

In regard to the notion of juiced balls, Verlander's Home Run rate of 1.847 is by far the highest of his Major League career.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml

 

o

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