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Cashner's Trade Value

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Just now, wildcard said:

I have no idea why you posted that in response to this post.    I said bonuses not option year.

That would be why I deleted it.  😀

I don't, however, think the potential bonuses would hurt his value much. 

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8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That would be why I deleted it.  😀

I don't, however, think the potential bonuses would hurt his value much. 

If Cashner pitches at least 20 starts and 175 innings and is traded on July 31st  he will make 2.7m in salary his last two months and 3.15m in bonuses.   That is 5.85m for two months of Cashner.   I think the O's will have to send cash with him.

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1 minute ago, wildcard said:

If Cashner pitches at least 20 starts and 175 innings and is traded on July 31st  he will make 2.7m in salary his last two months and 3.15m in bonuses.   That is 5.85m for two months of Cashner.   I think the O's will have to send cash with him.

He's on pace for 171 and it will be extremely easy for a team to keep him under the innings threshold. 

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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's on pace for 171 and it will be extremely easy for a team to keep him under the innings threshold. 

Hey, the contender that wants him bad enough to pay him will probably to need to get everything they can from him.

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6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Hey, the contender that wants him bad enough to pay him will probably to need to get everything they can from him.

Yea, I don't agree.  Not when he'd have to increase his workload to hit the threshold.  I don't think a playoff team would be expecting to get more than five out of a Cashner start.

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21 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Hey, the contender that wants him bad enough to pay him will probably to need to get everything they can from him.

So let's skip him a couple of times coming up then if that seems like a legitimate concern? 

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3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Hey, the contender that wants him bad enough to pay him will probably to need to get everything they can from him.

Part of me hopes someone gets desperate and trades for him. Philly and Milwaukee could be very nice suitors

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1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

Among qualifed starters:

4.60FIP(66th)

5.08xFIP(74th)

5.15SIERA(72nd)

Even if the Orioles ate money you'd be lucky to get a lottery ticket back. He's not the kind of guy anyone would throw in a play off game.

You have to factor in the market.   I already did this for demand, but would need to cover the supply (who else is available)

I agree the return will not be much in any case, but I think he might get a middling prospect.

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This is who else might be available from non-playoff teams who is near or above Cashner's ability, and who have starterd regularly in the majors this year, and do not have more than year left in arbitration (i.e., will reach FA either this end of this year or end of next year), or is in the last year or two of their contract 

AL

Blue Jays  Stroman (3.23).   Next year is last year of arbitration,  then hits FA in 2021. 

White Sox:  No one

Tigers: No one

Royals: Homer Bailey (4.82) hits FA next year, makes $23m/year.   Duffy (4.48) under a 5/$65m contract which runs through 2021. 

Angels: Tyler Skaggs (4.61) one more year arb, hits FA in 2021.  

Mariners: Mike Leake (4.54) has another year left of a $80m/5 year contract

NL

Nats: Sanchez (4.02):   Contract is 2 years / $19m, runs out next year

Mets: Wheeler (4.69)  1 year / $6m,    Vargas(3.75) 2 year / $16m contract runs out this year, team option for 20

Marlins:  No one 

Reds: Roark (3.47).   Signed for 1 year / $10m    DeSclafani (4.22) one more year of arb / FA 2021

Pirates:  Lyles ( 3.64 ) but he's been hurt and will need a few starts to prove effectivness

Padres: No one

Dbacks: Ray ( 3.87) 1 year arb/ FA 2021

Giants: Bumgarner (4.24) in his last contract year, thoughI find it unlikley Giants would dump him given his history    Samardjzia (4.23) in his last twp years of a 5/$90m contract 

Summary:  

There should be some decent SPs available.  But what might make Cashner stand out is his contract situation (only 1 year left at $8m), and the Orioles asking price will likely not be too high compared to younger players who still have an arbitration year left.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Might just be me but i don't want the Orioles to trade Cashner this year. The Orioles aren't going to get anything of value for him and this team needs good viable stopgap pitchers until the next wave of pitchers are ready. We've seen this organization rush young pitchers over the years and retard their development. Get Cashner to 187 innings so the vesting option for 2020 can take effect and then trade him at next year's trade deadline. 

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42 minutes ago, TINSTAAPP said:

Might just be me but i don't want the Orioles to trade Cashner this year. The Orioles aren't going to get anything of value for him and this team needs good viable stopgap pitchers until the next wave of pitchers are ready. We've seen this organization rush young pitchers over the years and retard their development. Get Cashner to 187 innings so the vesting option for 2020 can take effect and then trade him at next year's trade deadline. 

Nah. Here’s an idea....

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/05/orioles-trade-rumors-andrew-cashner-bullpen-reliever.html

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56 minutes ago, TINSTAAPP said:

Might just be me but i don't want the Orioles to trade Cashner this year. The Orioles aren't going to get anything of value for him and this team needs good viable stopgap pitchers until the next wave of pitchers are ready. We've seen this organization rush young pitchers over the years and retard their development. Get Cashner to 187 innings so the vesting option for 2020 can take effect and then trade him at next year's trade deadline. 

That is a very bad idea on a number of levels.

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3 hours ago, Big Mac said:

So let's skip him a couple of times coming up then if that seems like a legitimate concern? 

Intentionally benching a player to keep him from an option or bonus is how you make sure that no one wants to sign with you in FA down the road.

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5 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The '96 Orioles gave seven postseason starts combined to David Wells, Scott Erickson, and Rocky Coppinger, all of whom had ERAs over 5.00 and ERA+s under 100. And they won the ALDS!

🤮 I attended Coppinger’s start against the Yankees. Terrible memory. 

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We still have a ways to go till the deadline, but I don’t know if there will be enough of a demand for Cashner to get a trade done. I don’t know if it’s worth it to give him away and not win 40 games. 

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