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Cashner's Trade Value

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13 hours ago, GuidoSarducci said:

This is who else might be available from non-playoff teams who is near or above Cashner's ability, and who have starterd regularly in the majors this year, and do not have more than year left in arbitration (i.e., will reach FA either this end of this year or end of next year), or is in the last year or two of their contract 

AL

Blue Jays  Stroman (3.23).   Next year is last year of arbitration,  then hits FA in 2021. 

White Sox:  No one

Tigers: No one

Royals: Homer Bailey (4.82) hits FA next year, makes $23m/year.   Duffy (4.48) under a 5/$65m contract which runs through 2021. 

Angels: Tyler Skaggs (4.61) one more year arb, hits FA in 2021.  

Mariners: Mike Leake (4.54) has another year left of a $80m/5 year contract

NL

Nats: Sanchez (4.02):   Contract is 2 years / $19m, runs out next year

Mets: Wheeler (4.69)  1 year / $6m,    Vargas(3.75) 2 year / $16m contract runs out this year, team option for 20

Marlins:  No one 

Reds: Roark (3.47).   Signed for 1 year / $10m    DeSclafani (4.22) one more year of arb / FA 2021

Pirates:  Lyles ( 3.64 ) but he's been hurt and will need a few starts to prove effectivness

Padres: No one

Dbacks: Ray ( 3.87) 1 year arb/ FA 2021

Giants: Bumgarner (4.24) in his last contract year, thoughI find it unlikley Giants would dump him given his history    Samardjzia (4.23) in his last twp years of a 5/$90m contract 

Summary:  

There should be some decent SPs available.  But what might make Cashner stand out is his contract situation (only 1 year left at $8m), and the Orioles asking price will likely not be too high compared to younger players who still have an arbitration year left.

Cashner could cost 5.85m for the last two months on 2019 if bonuses are considered.

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13 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Intentionally benching a player to keep him from an option or bonus is how you make sure that no one wants to sign with you in FA down the road.

Obviously do it subtly. He has been having issues with blisters, seems like a good enough excuse for me. 

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5 hours ago, wildcard said:

Cashner could cost 5.85m for the last two months on 2019 if bonuses are considered.

He'd still be cheaper than alot of guys up there with expiring contracts, and cost less in a trade than the guys with arbitration left  (if they are even going to be available). 
The competitors are Roark, Wheeler and Vargas.  The Nats may just hang on to Sanchez, try to shore up the bullpen this offseason and try for another run next year.   

But still they will probably have to send money if they want a prospect back.   $5m is alot for two months of pitching. 

Edited by GuidoSarducci

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5 hours ago, wildcard said:

Cashner could cost 5.85m for the last two months on 2019 if bonuses are considered.

That’s pretty expensive for a guy that contending teams will only want to go 5IP. I don’t think we get much in return and we’ll have to kick in money. 

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21 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's on pace for 171 and it will be extremely easy for a team to keep him under the innings threshold. 

 

20 hours ago, wildcard said:

Hey, the contender that wants him bad enough to pay him will probably to need to get everything they can from him.

 

20 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yea, I don't agree.  Not when he'd have to increase his workload to hit the threshold.  I don't think a playoff team would be expecting to get more than five out of a Cashner start.

I think it just depends how he’s pitching.    Put it this way, if they are a contending team, I doubt they would artificially contrain Cashner’s starts or innings to keep him under some contractual threshold.   He’ll either pitch well enough and stay healthy enough to earn those incentives, or he won’t.   

By the way, at this time last year, Cashner had made 15 starts and thrown 82.1 innings — literally exactly what he has right now.    He ended up missing some starts in the second half and only reached 28 starts and 153 innings - not because the team tried to hold him down, he just wore down.   So, I’m not betting on him reaching 175 innings.   

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5 hours ago, Frobby said:

 

 

I think it just depends how he’s pitching.    Put it this way, if they are a contending team, I doubt they would artificially contrain Cashner’s starts or innings to keep him under some contractual threshold.   He’ll either pitch well enough and stay healthy enough to earn those incentives, or he won’t.   

By the way, at this time last year, Cashner had made 15 starts and thrown 82.1 innings — literally exactly what he has right now.    He ended up missing some starts in the second half and only reached 28 starts and 153 innings - not because the team tried to hold him down, he just wore down.   So, I’m not betting on him reaching 175 innings.   

It’s truly “good news money.” If he pitches well enough to earn the incentives, then I’m sure a team in the hunt would be thrilled. Better to spend $10 for a difference maker than $5 for meh. 

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On 6/23/2019 at 3:52 PM, TINSTAAPP said:

Might just be me but i don't want the Orioles to trade Cashner this year. The Orioles aren't going to get anything of value for him and this team needs good viable stopgap pitchers until the next wave of pitchers are ready. We've seen this organization rush young pitchers over the years and retard their development. Get Cashner to 187 innings so the vesting option for 2020 can take effect and then trade him at next year's trade deadline. 

This is silly. 

If the O's aren't going to get anything of value for him this year, chances are they won't get anything next year either.   He's pitching probably about his ceiling now (at leas for the Os). 

And there is no conceivable reason we want his 2020 $10m option to kick in.

We will likely not get much for Cashner, but whatever it is its better than zero, which is what we will get when he walks in FA next year.

As for the need for stopgap pitchers, there's no reason they have to be any good, as this is a lost season.   We could sign guys off the street like Shields to finish the year if necessary. 

 

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11 hours ago, GuidoSarducci said:

This is silly. 

If the O's aren't going to get anything of value for him this year, chances are they won't get anything next year either.   He's pitching probably about his ceiling now (at leas for the Os). 

And there is no conceivable reason we want his 2020 $10m option to kick in.

We will likely not get much for Cashner, but whatever it is its better than zero, which is what we will get when he walks in FA next year.

As for the need for stopgap pitchers, there's no reason they have to be any good, as this is a lost season.   We could sign guys off the street like Shields to finish the year if necessary. 

 

We might need to start signing those guys off the street now. We have half a season left and two SP. 

I agree with what the poster said above about this being Cashner’s ceiling right now. I don’t think he has much trade value and the option is scary. He’s going to push hard for that. I think we’re going to have to trade Cashner + Cash(maybe his remaining salary)just to get rid of him and his option. Some team might be doing us a favor by taking him off our hands and then sticking him in the bullpen. 

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6 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We might need to start signing those guys off the street now. We have half a season left and two SP. 

I agree with what the poster said above about this being Cashner’s ceiling right now. I don’t think he has much trade value and the option is scary. He’s going to push hard for that. I think we’re going to have to trade Cashner + Cash(maybe his remaining salary)just to get rid of him and his option. Some team might be doing us a favor by taking him off our hands and then sticking him in the bullpen. 

He can try all he likes but he isn't in charge of his starts or his innings.

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6 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

He can try all he likes but he isn't in charge of his starts or his innings.

Has there been a situation where management was suspected of preventing a player from reaching a performance threshold in order to prevent them from earning a bonus?  If so had there ever been a grievance filed?

I didn't think bonus money was common in the MLB.  (OTOH, its everywhere in the NFL)

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Call me sentimental, but I hope the O's keep Cashner and Bundy, unless they can get a top 100 type prospect (which seems unlikely).  I'm OK with the O's being the worst team in baseball this season.   I'm even OK with them flirting with being 2003 Tigers bad or 1962 Mets bad, but I don't want to see them play like the 1899 Cleveland Spiders in the second half, and I think there's a real possibility things could get that bad if the team trades one or two of its remaining viable major league starters.  It's bad enough having to start guys like Rogers, Gilmartin, Yacabonis and Ynoa three games out of five--the O's are getting clobbered almost every time one of them has to start.  Now imagine having guys like that starting four games out of five, or more.  

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6 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

Call me sentimental, but I hope the O's keep Cashner and Bundy, unless they can get a top 100 type prospect (which seems unlikely).  I'm OK with the O's being the worst team in baseball this season.   I'm even OK with them flirting with being 2003 Tigers bad or 1962 Mets bad, but I don't want to see them play like the 1899 Cleveland Spiders in the second half, and I think there's a real possibility things could get that bad if the team trades one or two of its remaining viable major league starters.  It's bad enough having to start guys like Rogers, Gilmartin, Yacabonis and Ynoa three games out of five--the O's are getting clobbered almost every time one of them has to start.  Now imagine having guys like that starting four games out of five, or more.  

Yeah if not for Cashner we would have lost 13 straight and counting.  

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Cashner doesn’t get the Orioles a prospect worth having. There’s no reason to trade him. Someone has to pitch this team’s innings. It might as well be him.

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1 minute ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Cashner doesn’t get the Orioles a prospect worth having. There’s no reason to trade him. Someone has to pitch this team’s innings. It might as well be him.

I think you are understating Cashners value.

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3 minutes ago, atomic said:

I think you are understating Cashners value.

I’ve seen this movie too many times. This is a nothingburger.

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