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Is this team worse than last year?

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5 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Because the Orioles probably won't be good until he's 30 or so, and a 2ish-win first baseman/OF/DH entering his 30s isn't going to be a very valuable player.  He'll be an average player, he won't be pushing the O's to the playoffs.  If they can get someone for him with a chance to be an impact player in 3-4 years they should do it.

It's exactly the reason why re-signing Mark Trumbo was a mistake.

You know what the Mariners got when they traded Trumbo?  A third string catcher. I think you are underestimating other teams.  They know Mancini is a bad fielder.  They know he is not that great of a hitter.   They know guys like him are a dime a dozen.  They aren't going to give us much for him.  Would you give an impact player for him if he was on another team and the Orioles were contending?

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Just now, atomic said:

Recent bad Oriole outfielders: Felix Pie, Nolan Reimold.  Mancini is worse.  

If you say Mancini is worse than Trumbo or Delmon Young we'll know this has all been a big prank.

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2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Because the Orioles probably won't be good until he's 30 or so, and a 2ish-win first baseman/OF/DH entering his 30s isn't going to be a very valuable player.  He'll be an average player, he won't be pushing the O's to the playoffs.  If they can get someone for him with a chance to be an impact player in 3-4 years they should do it.

It's exactly the reason why re-signing Mark Trumbo was a mistake.

That and the fact that the Trumbo deal was a huge overpay given the market. 

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2 minutes ago, atomic said:

Recent bad Oriole outfielders: Felix Pie, Nolan Reimold.  Mancini is worse.  

For one thing, both of those guys spent their MiL careers as outfielders.    For another, Pie was extremely speedy, and Reimold was certainly faster than Mancini.   But I don’t those two are close to being the worst Orioles outfielders I’ve seen.

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Just now, atomic said:

You know what the Mariners got when they traded Trumbo?  A third string catcher. I think you are underestimating other teams.  They know Mancini is a bad fielder.  They know he is not that great of a hitter.   They know guys like him are a dime a dozen.  They aren't going to give us much for him.  Would you give an impact player for him if he was on another team and the Orioles were contending?

"Impact" was an overstatement.  I should have said "prospect".

Trumbo was traded when he was about to turn 30, coming off a three-year run with a .742 OPS, and had a year left on $9M contract.  He had zero surplus value.  Mancini is younger, has a .794 OPS over the past three years, and makes $500k a year and is under team control for three more years.  There's a massive difference in value.

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23 minutes ago, atomic said:

Except defensive metrics say Mancini is a worse outfielder than when Cruz played the outfield regularly.  Mancini already has more negative D-WAr than the Cruz had in the entire season he played with the Orioles. And was actually considered a plus defender statistically that year. 

I’m going to have to study up more on this. But just watching Cruz with the Rangers and Orioles playing the outfield, he looks worse and always made me nervous as a fan. 

Manicini needs to play 1B, but he does not cause the same level of worry when the ball his hit his way. 

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6 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

"Impact" was an overstatement.  I should have said "prospect".

Trumbo was traded when he was about to turn 30, coming off a three-year run with a .742 OPS, and had a year left on $9M contract.  He had zero surplus value.  Mancini is younger, has a .794 OPS over the past three years, and makes $500k a year and is under team control for three more years.  There's a massive difference in value.

Ok which one of our impact prospects would you trade for him if he were on another team and were in contention?  

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5 minutes ago, atomic said:

Ok which one of our impact prospects would you trade for him if he were on another team and were in contention?  

I should say what prospects of ours would you be willing to trade for him?  DJ Stewart and Zac Lowther combination?

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6 minutes ago, atomic said:

You know what the Mariners got when they traded Trumbo?  A third string catcher. I think you are underestimating other teams.  They know Mancini is a bad fielder.  They know he is not that great of a hitter.   They know guys like him are a dime a dozen.  They aren't going to give us much for him.  Would you give an impact player for him if he was on another team and the Orioles were contending?

When the O’s acquired Trumbo, he was due to make about $9 mm, would be a free agent in a year, he was a career .758 OPS hitter, and he was turning 30.    Mancini will be due to make maybe $3 mm next year, is under team control for three seasons after this one, is a career .794 OPS hitter, and will be 28 next season.    Do you understand the difference?     Saying that, Mancini has to keep hitting to have any significant value, and it’s not like anyone thinks we’ll get a giant haul for him.   Just 1-2 respectable future pieces.     

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9 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

If you say Mancini is worse than Trumbo or Delmon Young we'll know this has all been a big prank.

The Orioles laundry list of poor defensive outfielders in the last 10 years is exhaustive. Delmon is another one I forgot about.

And I know they experimented with Pedro Alvarez playing the outfield too, but if I’m remembering correctly he never played outfield in any games that counted. 

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42 minutes ago, jerios55 said:

I think most know we're in the hunt for the #1 pick.  While some may hope for mediocre, I doubt many people expect much more than really really bad.  It's part of why the silver linings thread exists.  It was known from day one we'd be terrible and picking out positives to keep us all from losing our minds. 

That doesn't mean seeing 3 OFers means you can call Mancini the worst outfielder ever and not expect people to call you out on your BS.

I never said Mancini was the worst outfielder. I said he was the worst regular outfielder I have ever seen.   

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6 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I’m going to have to study up more on this. But just watching Cruz with the Rangers and Orioles playing the outfield, he looks worse and always made me nervous as a fan. 

Manicini needs to play 1B, but he does not cause the same level of worry when the ball his hit his way. 

Cruz was an average RFer in his mid 20s.  By age 30 he was dropping significantly.  Teams including the Orioles started DHing him more and more.  The one year in Baltimore he rated by DRS as a +4 in 580 innings in the OF.  But in the surrounding seasons he was below average even while DHing much/most of the time.  The last 3-4 years he's barely played the field at all.  From age 30-35 he was a -26 OFer in something like 3600 innings, which works out to roughly -9 runs per 150 games.

He was in the same general grouping as Mancini.  

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8 minutes ago, atomic said:

I should say what prospects of ours would you be willing to trade for him?  DJ Stewart and Zac Lowther combination?

It depends on a lot of things.  But DJ Stewart hopes one day he's as good as Mancini, and odds aren't looking great at 25 although he's hitting well so far this year.   Lowther is a AA starter who has a decent track record.  That might be a decent package.  

Mancini's current surplus value is very roughly 2 wins times 3.5 years at $8M per win = $56M, minus roughly $10M in salary over the next 3+ years.... so something like $45M.  Can you project 7 wins out of Stewart and Lowther, just shifted a few years into the future?  Maybe.

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31 minutes ago, atomic said:

You know what the Mariners got when they traded Trumbo?  A third string catcher. I think you are underestimating other teams.  They know Mancini is a bad fielder.  They know he is not that great of a hitter.   They know guys like him are a dime a dozen.  They aren't going to give us much for him.  Would you give an impact player for him if he was on another team and the Orioles were contending?

No.

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2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It depends on a lot of things.  But DJ Stewart hopes one day he's as good as Mancini, and odds aren't looking great at 25 although he's hitting well so far this year.   Lowther is a AA starter who has a decent track record.  That might be a decent package.  

Mancini's current surplus value is very roughly 2 wins times 3.5 years at $8M per win = $56M, minus roughly $10M in salary over the next 3+ years.... so something like $45M.  Can you project 7 wins out of Stewart and Lowther, just shifted a few years into the future?  Maybe.

He was more valuable than Mancini last season...

Hard to put up numbers if you don't get to play.

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