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Frobby

Austin Hays 2019

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28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Funny, I could have sworn that Hays was universally higher rated after the 2017 season.    

I like both players.    In both cases, I wish they had better plate discipline, and believe that could be an impediment to their becoming major league regulars, or at least, it could limit their upside.    But, they will get their opportunities, and deservedly so.

No doubt. I would like them both to start walking alot more. If you play a premium defensive position like CF or SS, a lack of walks is acceptable, but not so much anywhere else. 

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Just now, jabba72 said:

No doubt. I would like them both to start walking alot more. If you play a premium defensive position like CF or SS, a lack of walks is acceptable, but not so much anywhere else. 

So that rules out them moving to catcher. 😉

I hope the instructors have moved away from forcing aggression on the young hitters.

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52 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Luke seems to think Mountcastle has the talent to overcome his "over aggressiveness".  I find his walk totals amazingly low.  Guilty on the zero scouting part. Guilty of mentioning Mountcastle in an Austin Hays thread.  I don't see how any of it is delusional though.

Nice shot across my bow. Subtle. I can appreciate this kind of passive aggressiveness.

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9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Nice shot across my bow. Subtle. I can appreciate this kind of passive aggressiveness.

I didn't know I was being passive aggressive.  That is good.

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There is no doubt that the lack of walks limits the upside of both Hays and Mountcastle, but we can probably stop acting like Tony and Luke don't know about the issue. They're obviously weighing everything, including age, position, hit tool, power, etc. along with the walks.

I think Hays, if healthy, can be better than Adam Jones. That's pretty darn good, but not Mookie Betts good. I think Mountcastle would be worse, mostly because he doesn't have defensive value. I don't think the walks will be fatal to their profiles, but admit that I am concerned it will be a very big issue in the majors.

 

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7 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

There is no doubt that the lack of walks limits the upside of both Hays and Mountcastle, but we can probably stop acting like Tony and Luke don't know about the issue. They're obviously weighing everything, including age, position, hit tool, power, etc. along with the walks.

I think Hays, if healthy, can be better than Adam Jones. That's pretty darn good, but not Mookie Betts good. I think Mountcastle would be worse, mostly because he doesn't have defensive value. I don't think the walks will be fatal to their profiles, but admit that I am concerned it will be a very big issue in the majors.

 

Don't get me wrong, I would love if Mountcastle was more patient and drew more walks, but he hits for a high average and some power which means he gets good contact on pitches he can hit. If he were undisciplined and chasing pitches he couldn't hit well often, his power and average numbers wouldn't be there. some guys foul off or miss hittable pitches that extend at bats and may lead to a walk. Mountcastle doesn't miss that many of those pitches. 

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Let me put it this way on Mountcastle. Imagine a world where Mountcastle went to college and the Orioles drafted him in the first round last year (would have been his Junior year) instead of Grayson Rodriguez. Let's say the Orioles were so enamored with him that they sent him right to Bowie and he slashed .297/.341/.464/.806.

Then in his first full season in the minors at 22-years of age (Mancini started  in Delmarva at 22), they sent him to AAA and he slashed .297/.320/.493/.813. Are you telling me people wouldn't be flipping out over this kid?

Mountcastle had a bad night last night where he wasn't seeing the ball well and is in a bit of a funk over his last 12 games (.204/.235/.388/.623), but he's 22-years old and has as much upside offensively as anyone in the organization not named Adley Rutschman.

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I agree. Let's get him in left and Hays in center the rest of the year and hope they can fill those roles in April in Baltimore.

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18 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Imagine a world where Mountcastle went to college and the Orioles drafted him in the first round last year ... Let's say the Orioles were so enamored with him that they sent him right to Bowie and he slashed .297/.341/.464/.806.

Then in his first full season in the minors at 22-years of age ..., they sent him to AAA and he slashed .297/.320/.493/.813. Are you telling me people wouldn't be flipping out over this kid?

There's no doubt that's true, but we always hope that professional instruction will improve the warts of guys we draft. Mountcastle has had that instruction for years now and still has that same wart. That makes me less bullish that he'll be able to improve upon this one aspect of his game than I might be if he were just leaving college.

I'm not speaking for RZNJ, but maybe that's where the disconnect is between me and you guys. I really do value the age/level thing, but I think I'm discounting it a bit because he's already been in the system for so long. I feel like age/level is the reason he's rated higher than guys like Diaz and Hays, but I don't like the profile as much as those guys, so I'd personally rate him below them.

It's also worth noting that I think we're arguing on the margins here. I like Mountcastle, but am sympathetic to RZNJ's position too.

 

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2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

There's no doubt that's true, but we always hope that professional instruction will improve the warts of guys we draft. Mountcastle has had that instruction for years now and still has that same wart. That makes me less bullish that he'll be able to improve upon this one aspect of his game than I might be if he were just leaving college.

I'm not speaking for RZNJ, but maybe that's where the disconnect is between me and you guys. I really do value the age/level thing, but I think I'm discounting it a bit because he's already been in the system for so long. I feel like age/level is the reason he's rated higher than guys like Diaz and Hays, but I don't like the profile as much as those guys, so I'd personally rate him below them.

It's also worth noting that I think we're arguing on the margins here. I like Mountcastle, but am sympathetic to RZNJ's position too.

 

Real question, why are you bullish on Hays more than Mountcastle when he has similar aggressive tendencies and has been older at the same levels and has struggled with injuries over his career?

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4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

There's no doubt that's true, but we always hope that professional instruction will improve the warts of guys we draft. Mountcastle has had that instruction for years now and still has that same wart. That makes me less bullish that he'll be able to improve upon this one aspect of his game than I might be if he were just leaving college.

I'm not speaking for RZNJ, but maybe that's where the disconnect is between me and you guys. I really do value the age/level thing, but I think I'm discounting it a bit because he's already been in the system for so long. I feel like age/level is the reason he's rated higher than guys like Diaz and Hays, but I don't like the profile as much as those guys, so I'd personally rate him below them.

It's also worth noting that I think we're arguing on the margins here. I like Mountcastle, but am sympathetic to RZNJ's position too.

 

Part of Mountcastle's instruction was "Learn what you can't hit".  The O's under Buck and Dan were not exactly teaching patience in the minors.  Weren't Hays' walk numbers a lot better in college?

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15 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Real question, why are you bullish on Hays more than Mountcastle when he has similar aggressive tendencies and has been older at the same levels and has struggled with injuries over his career?

Because his walk numbers aren't as bad and he has genuine defensive value. I think their hit tools are similar, with a bit less power for Hays.

For me, I don't like that either's walk rates are low, but I really worry about just how low Mountcastle's are. They're pretty extreme.

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16 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Real question, why are you bullish on Hays more than Mountcastle when he has similar aggressive tendencies and has been older at the same levels and has struggled with injuries over his career?

I’m not LookinUp, but it seems to me Hays’ advantage is on the defensive side, where he can handle CF if needed and has an above average arm.     Offensively they are pretty similar.   

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I remember being really pumped when the O's got Hays in the 3rd round in the 2016 draft. He was pretty close to a 5 tool player out of college. I just couldn't believe the O's got lucky enough to nab him. Didn't see the injury bug hitting him this hard though. Hope he can shake it off soon.

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