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2019 3rd round pick (79): Zach Watson - CF - LSU

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2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I thought this guy said likely no slot savings on Watson.  Now he's suggesting at least 280K?  Or is this a different guy?  Or maybe he digs my logic on this one?

Let me find where he said that. 

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9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I thought this guy said likely no slot savings on Watson.  Now he's suggesting at least 280K?  Or is this a different guy?  Or maybe he digs my logic on this one?

He is here all the time. So you must have convinced him.

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6 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

If he doesn't sign the slot money is lost.

Ok, thanks for the clarification on that.  So, a follow up question:  would you rather sign this guy for slot (assuming that's what he's holding out for), or let him go and take someone else in the 3rd round next year?  

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24 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

Ok, thanks for the clarification on that.  So, a follow up question:  would you rather sign this guy for slot (assuming that's what he's holding out for), or let him go and take someone else in the 3rd round next year?  

.I'd rather have a pick today over a future pick.

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9 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

.I'd rather have a pick today over a future pick.

Makes the most sense. Plus we’d be losing the top pick of the 3rd rd this year and gaining a pick after the 3rd rd next year. 

We can play hardball with Watson, and he doesn’t have much leverage, but it would a big drop in position and slot value next year. 

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15 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I thought this guy said likely no slot savings on Watson.  Now he's suggesting at least 280K?  Or is this a different guy?  Or maybe he digs my logic on this one?

Why did I say 500k and slot before?

It is discussing a couple different scenarios.  If Orioles come in and say 500k and he wants a full 775k or so, he has a hard time using leverage in getting paid more.  What leverage he does have is that the Orioles will be compensated with a couple hundred grand less bonus slot in the 2020 draft.

So...it is hard to see Watson refuse 500k ultimately, but it also seems hard to see the Orioles refuse 775k ultimately.  Neither scenario works well for either party.  So 500k is if Watson blinks, 775k is if the Orioles blink, and my guess is that the extra 275k is worth more for Watson to hold out on for as long as possible than it is for the Orioles to hold firm on.

Does that help?  Good thing to remember whenever looking at a tweet with projected numbers that I write up is that those numbers are context based and part of the distribution of outcomes.

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18 hours ago, weams said:

 

Would it be a comp pick after the third round next year?  I thought it would be one pick later in the same round, which would be pick 3.2.  Anyone know for sure?

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12 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Would it be a comp pick after the third round next year?  I thought it would be one pick later in the same round, which would be pick 3.2.  Anyone know for sure?

First two rounds, it is one pick behind.

Third round is comped at the end of the round.

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1 hour ago, jsbearr said:

Why did I say 500k and slot before?

It is discussing a couple different scenarios.  If Orioles come in and say 500k and he wants a full 775k or so, he has a hard time using leverage in getting paid more.  What leverage he does have is that the Orioles will be compensated with a couple hundred grand less bonus slot in the 2020 draft.

So...it is hard to see Watson refuse 500k ultimately, but it also seems hard to see the Orioles refuse 775k ultimately.  Neither scenario works well for either party.  So 500k is if Watson blinks, 775k is if the Orioles blink, and my guess is that the extra 275k is worth more for Watson to hold out on for as long as possible than it is for the Orioles to hold firm on.

Does that help?  Good thing to remember whenever looking at a tweet with projected numbers that I write up is that those numbers are context based and part of the distribution of outcomes.

Good clarification. I was confused when you said slot signing in response to me. Thanks. 

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I wasn’t that excited about the Watson pick, but I’d rather sign him than get a comp pick at the end of the 3rd round next year.   

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I have zero doubt that he will sign and that it will be for below slot. He has no leverage here. I doubt it will be as cheap as $500k though. Something like $575-$600 is my guess.

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Whether we think Watson is a great pick or not is only part of the equations.  If our GM was counting on slot savings with this pick is just as important.  

The interesting aspect of not yet signing Watson and Daschbach is that these two were the first picks of the second and third days of the draft.  Presumably, we knew their signing bonus numbers before the draft and would have confirmed those numbers overnight before picking these guys.  

I am sure there are other scenarios, but I think the most likely situation we now face involves the following two possibilities:

 - one of these guys changed their number.  Most scenarios likely involve signing Watson for below slot so one would expect Watson to be the first to sign - unless the Os need to squeeze him for an additional $50k or $100k - another possibility that is difficult to understand - why not just pay a nominal tax and get everything done.  

 - Henderson signed for less than expected and we have the opportunity to sign a different, perhaps better, combination of prospects.  Similarly, but slightly different, maybe the signing bonus request from one of the late HSers has dropped.

 - the old Orioles physical issues are rearing their ugly head again.

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19 hours ago, hoosiers said:

Whether we think Watson is a great pick or not is only part of the equations.  If our GM was counting on slot savings with this pick is just as important.  

The interesting aspect of not yet signing Watson and Daschbach is that these two were the first picks of the second and third days of the draft.  Presumably, we knew their signing bonus numbers before the draft and would have confirmed those numbers overnight before picking these guys.  

I am sure there are other scenarios, but I think the most likely situation we now face involves the following two possibilities:

 - one of these guys changed their number.  Most scenarios likely involve signing Watson for below slot so one would expect Watson to be the first to sign - unless the Os need to squeeze him for an additional $50k or $100k - another possibility that is difficult to understand - why not just pay a nominal tax and get everything done.  

 - Henderson signed for less than expected and we have the opportunity to sign a different, perhaps better, combination of prospects.  Similarly, but slightly different, maybe the signing bonus request from one of the late HSers has dropped.

 - the old Orioles physical issues are rearing their ugly head again.

Not sure exactly what you mean here but the O's doctors have been right virtually every time and have saved the team from several mistakes. Too bad they didn't find anything wrong with Davis or Cobb.

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