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Greg Pappas

Franchise Expectations Over the Next Four Years

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Though I understand that trying to project four years out is very difficult, with Elias and Sig in charge I'm hopeful that we may start to see a winning franchise beginning in 2023.  Many unforeseen developments will occur, as always, but if we break a .500 record any sooner than 2023, Elias could be receiving votes for best GM in baseball. I'll gladly take it.

Though @Tony-OH and others can provide a clearer idea, here is my best guess of the ETA (not a cup of coffee) of some of our top prospects:

2020: 1B Ryan Mountcastle/OF Austin Hays/LHP Keegan Akin
2021: C Adley Rutschman/RHP Dean Kremer/OF Yusniel Diaz/LHP Zac Lowther/RHP Blaine Knight
2022: RHP Grayson Rodriguez/LHP DL Hall/SS Adam Hall/OF Kyle Stowers
2023: LHP Drew Rom/SS-3B Gunnar Henderson

Many of these prospects will fail to make an impact at the big league level, if they ever even make it, but some will. For me, the development of DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez seems vital to the success of the staff down the road. These are our two ToR upside pitchers, and if we hit on both, that will go a long way to fortifying the starting staff. Even if both make it, I don't see them both here until 2022 and cannot expect a winning record until they get some experience under their belts. Of course, one or both could accelerate their progress and arrive earlier, but 2022 seems like a safe bet. As well, there's hope that we'll see an influx of international talent arriving by 2023 (or sooner).

The successful implementation and progress of Elias and Sig's overhaul of our entire system will be crucial to our franchise's fortunes as we move forward.  I'm confident they'll do a great job. 

Note: I considered posting this in the Which year will the O's next finish with a winning record? but just went with a fresh thread.  Mods could move it to the other thread though, if so desired.

Anyway, what are your franchise expectations over the next four years? 

 

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2021 - 65-69 wins

2022 -  .500

2023 - On the verge of contention

2024 - World Series, baby - book it! (or, maybe just a wild card appearance)

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2 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

2021 - 65-69 wins

2022 -  .500

2023 - On the verge of contention

2024 - World Series, baby - book it! (or, maybe just a wild card appearance)

Sign me up! :)

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I’d really like us to sign a few middle relievers to 4 year contracts and a couple aging, replacement level position players this offseason. It’ll go a long way to getting us 73-76 wins for the next decade. All I’m asking for is a real commitment to winning. 

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I’m of the camp that doubts our ability to develop talent still. Even with our #1 picks for several years running I feel we will waste them, or they will find clever ways to not pan out for us - long term injuries derail their careers, underperforming, psych issues, etc. 

I mean that’s a more likely outcome than the alternative of contending by 2023. It’s much easier and more likely to be bad than to be good, especially if you aren’t a team that can bankroll free agent acquisitions to bolster a decent young core. A decent young core alone can’t contend - you need to acquire 28-32 year old top tier performers from other teams and invest heavily in your chances for a single season. Not gonna happen in Baltimore.

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I haven't given up hope for 2022 relevance yet with Rutschman the pick.  That's the first season I feel is realistic for the last three #1 picks to be contributors (I won't say no if Grayson goes all Jose Fernandez but you can never plan for that), and by then the eventual supporting cast of Mountcastle, Diaz, Kremer, Akin, Lowther etc should be past the worst of transitioning to the show.

Heck, if next spring's 1-1 is in the position Casey Mize is in by June 9, 2021, the second half 2021 Orioles could give some people some problems.  Once whatever the baseball gods give you in your "Strasburg/Harper" moment are on the field, your window is at least cracked.

The 2021/2022 offseason litmus test I'll be rooting for to develop is that Baltimore is a reasonable destination for one of that year's top free agents ala Padres Machado.  The domino after that would be Gunnar being ready for 3B for 2022's wildcard push just like Manny in 2012.  I'll daydream about the Lindor/Correa/Seager/Story/Baez SS group until we've missed all of them, but with my orangiest glasses I'll chase a wildcard in the summer of 2022 with pitching like

"Casey Mize character"/Hall/Rodriguez/Means/"best of everyone else" and a lineup like:

SS Lindor, C Rutschman, 1B Mountcastle

DH Mancini, RF Diaz, CF Hays,

LF "best of everyone else", 2B Bannon/Hall, 3B Gunnar

If all the shortstops go, you may be able to live with Gunnar there a bit and then you can use the team's "A" salary slot on an easier position (Freeman/Rizzo/Arenado/Scherzer/Verlander?).  At mid-2010's levels, the 2022 Orioles might even be able to afford two salaries on that tier with so many pre-arb guys.

Unless Elias can really pull a rabbit out of the hat with a Bundy or Mancini trade, I think that's everyone in my mind beyond medium guys you just toss into a "best of" player development's next couple years work.

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I think I will have a better idea of how fast the team get better when I see how Elias promotes in late June and July.    

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5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think I will have a better idea of how fast the team get better when I see how Elias promotes in late June and July.    

While I hope next year's Mountcastle/Diaz/Hays/Akin/Kremer batch will flash enough to get us out of prohibitive favorite for worst record in MLB 3 years in a row next season, Kumar Rocker's no-hitter is the kind of transcendent thunder bolt I hope some of the current NCAA sophomores provide in the CWS and going into next year.

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55 minutes ago, WalkWithElias said:

I’d really like us to sign a few middle relievers to 4 year contracts and a couple aging, replacement level position players this offseason. It’ll go a long way to getting us 73-76 wins for the next decade. All I’m asking for is a real commitment to winning. 

Syd Thrift is on our board, ladies and gentlemen!  😁

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Houston lost 100 the year before Luhnow arrived...they lost 105 and 107 and 92 and then made the wildcard....so....we lost over a 100 last year, 105 this year, 105 next year, 92 losses in 2021 and then wildcard or better in 2022. 

 

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o


When I first read the title of this thread, I thought that it was going to be about MLB planning expansion.

 

o

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McKenna and Hays should be on the list of guys who should be here sooner rather than later. Same with Harvey.

Add Mason McCoy to the list of guys that we don't know what we have yet but could make an impact within

We will get some guys back from Villar at minimum and possibly Mancini (if there are good offers) and Givens (if he can pitch decently).

If I am Elias, I am targeting bullpan arms as the biggest need.

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1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

McKenna and Hays should be on the list of guys who should be here sooner rather than later. Same with Harvey.

Add Mason McCoy to the list of guys that we don't know what we have yet but could make an impact within

We will get some guys back from Villar at minimum and possibly Mancini (if there are good offers) and Givens (if he can pitch decently).

If I am Elias, I am targeting bullpan arms as the biggest need.

McKenna has regressed in Bowie. He may just end up being a fourth outfielder and I wouldn’t expect to see him before 2021.  He’s on his way to repeating Bowie in 2020 along with Diaz. 

McCoy is slowing down after a hot start. Maybe he’s in the picture next year, but he’s likely another reserve/utility guy at best.

I would look at Hays, Mountcastle, Akin and some of the Double A pitchers as players who can actually make an impact over the next year. 

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2021: Flirt with.500

2022: .500 +

2023: wildcard contention

i think the above scenario is best case if everything goes right and we get lucky with some guys.

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There is way to many questions outside even the organization to make a logical guess. Do they realign do the change the schedules to make them more fair.  Do they actually have a salary cap or can teams like Boston spend 200 million a year more then the Rays. Does the international signing rules change and we have an international draft.  Then we have ownership questions, does someone else buy the team and want to speed things up or go a different route do the angelos boys take over Aand allow them to cut Davis.  

I really think we see some major changes in the CBA and until then any time predictions are a huge guess just in baseball in general let alone the Orioles.  

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