Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
wildcard

Which players in the O's organization have the highest ceiling?

Recommended Posts

9 hours ago, atomic said:

I think when you are 24 1/2 and have 20 starts at AA and have a 6.56 ERA and  in them you and trending worse should start thinking about what you are going to do after baseball.  His ceiling I think is a bad pitcher at AA.  

Would you like me to start compiling a list of good major league pitchers who hadn't established themselves in the majors at 27?  There's a lot.  There are Hall of Famers who didn't have their first MLB win until after they turned 30, and not because of the color line or wars or anything like that.  They just weren't that good.  Pitchers are not position players, they don't always come up at 22, peak at 27 and have a nice, linear decline from there.

When Doug Jones was 24 1/2 he had 15 starts in AA, a 5.80 ERA, gave up 121 hits in 90 innings, and 2/3rds of Hunter Harvey's strikeout rate.  He's 27th all time in MLB saves.

So, yes, I'm saying there's a chance.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

My point is that even really good relievers are not more valuable than mediocre (average) starters.

Obviously Hader is a unicorn and who doesn't want to watch a unicorn pitch?

Aren't we slowly approaching a point of convergence, where the better relievers will start being as valuable as average starters?  It won't be too long before an average starter throws under 150 innings a season, if we're not already there.  So a good reliever in 70 innings with both a leverage index and an ERA around 2.00 will be as or more valuable as that 4.50 ERA starter in 150.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Cy Bundy said:

 

Who thinks highly of Harvey? This is about upside, Harvey is more talented than better pitchers in our system. 

He was.    Is he still?    It’s debatable.   I think a lot of people when judging upside for a pitcher look at the velocity of his fastball and that’s where the analysis ends.      But if you are 24 and aren’t getting AA hitters out consistently, it’s questionable how much upside you have.    I make allowances in Harvey’s case because (1) his age belies his lack of experience, and (2) we have heard teammates rave about his stuff in spring training.    So, I still think he has a good bit of upside.  Exactly how much, I don’t know.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Aren't we slowly approaching a point of convergence, where the better relievers will start being as valuable as average starters?  It won't be too long before an average starter throws under 150 innings a season, if we're not already there.  So a good reliever in 70 innings with both a leverage index and an ERA around 2.00 will be as or more valuable as that 4.50 ERA starter in 150.

I don't think we are there yet.  Hopefully some point.  They need to get the relievers up around 90 innings.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
 
 
 
 
3
11 hours ago, wildcard said:

There is every reason to think it will be a long time before we know if he will ever be as good as Mancini at 1B.  Mancini has been at 1B all his playing career.  In college, in the pros.  He didn't start playing the outfield until he got to the majors.  1B is his natural position.

Mountcastle has basically no experience at 1B but 44 games this season.  He was a SS where he did have the arm to make the throws.  Then to 3B.  Same story.   So don't tell me that automately makes him as good as Mancini defensively at 1B..  Well, you can tell but you don't have a leg to stand on with the comment.   I am done  discussing that point.

Believe what you want.

What? Mancini is not a developed first baseman. There are lost of guys who play first better than Trey. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Aren't we slowly approaching a point of convergence, where the better relievers will start being as valuable as average starters?  It won't be too long before an average starter throws under 150 innings a season, if we're not already there.  So a good reliever in 70 innings with both a leverage index and an ERA around 2.00 will be as or more valuable as that 4.50 ERA starter in 150.

Not there yet. There are still good starters.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, weams said:

Not there yet. There are still good starters.

Yes, but Corn said average starter.  I think we're already to the point where a top tier 70-inning reliever is as valuable as a 150-inning fourth starter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Yes, but Corn said average starter.  I think we're already to the point where a top tier 70-inning reliever is as valuable as a 150-inning fourth starter.

By average I meant third. 1-2-3-4-5, 3 is in the middle.  😉

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Yes, but Corn said average starter.  I think we're already to the point where a top tier 70-inning reliever is as valuable as a 150-inning fourth starter.

That is possible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

By average I meant third. 1-2-3-4-5, 3 is in the middle.  😉

Everyone knows that teams use 8+ starters in a season, duh.  :)

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I saw Harvey on a bad day and came away thinking the same thing seesh and atomic are saying in this thread. Then I read Luke's comments on him and have changed. Here's my understanding of the case for Harvey.

1. His stuff is still top tier. That goes beyond his fastball.
2. As Frobby noted, his professional experience is not that of a 24 year old AA pitcher. It's more like a 21 year old Delmarva pitcher's experience.
3. Injuries are tough to come back from, not just from a stuff perspective and not just from an innings/injury perspective, but also from a mental/mechanical perspective. I don't know if the kid has rebuilt his mechanics and is working through that, or if he has injury in the back of his mind, or if he just hasn't developed the muscle memory yet to repeat his delivery and develop command, but all of those things are possible reasons why a guy with well above average stuff isn't performing.
4. He did have ability to get guys out when he was younger, which means he theoretically did and could still develop pitchability to match his stuff. If he does, watch out. That's ceiling.

None of this means he's a high probability guy. I think it just means we give the kid more time. His arm talent, even as a reliever, says that's a better bet than putting our chips in on a guy like Hess (IMO), Ynoa, Rogers, or most of the other alphabet soup of guys we've tried to run out there for a few innings this year. 

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As I’ve said a few times, my modest goal for Harvey this year is for him to pitch a reasonable number of innings and stay healthy throughout.   Right now he’s at 50 IP, which is one shy of what he threw in 2017-18 combined, and 13.2 shy of what he threw in 2015-18 combined.    Think about that.    Hopefully he’ll throw another 50-70 innings this year and learn some things along the way.     

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

I'll just rank our prospects overall by ceiling.  Note that this isn't the same as a prospect ranking--for instance, I would rank GrayRod ahead of DL Hall as a prospect right now because his performance has been better at the same age, but I think DL Hall has a higher ceiling if he can command his stuff.  

1.  Rutschman

2.  DL Hall

3.  Rodriguez

4.  Gunnar 

5.  Hays--ranks above Mountcastle because of potential for plus defense

6.  Mountcastle

7.  Diaz--I think it's time to start getting concerned that he hasn't hit a lick since being traded here.  A creature of the California and Texas Leagues, maybe?

8.  Kremer

9.  Peralta

10. Adam Hall  

 

I share the same sentiment in regards to Dias very Discouraging especially after the good spring provided hope but only to struggle so much so far hoping to see a turn arooynd the second half.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think we are there yet.  Hopefully some point.  They need to get the relievers up around 90 innings.

As I mentioned before Mike Marshall pitched 208 innings in one season in relief and won the Cy Young award. The year before he pitched 179 innings in relief and came in second for Cy Young award. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

 

7.  Diaz--I think it's time to start getting concerned that he hasn't hit a lick since being traded here.  A creature of the California and Texas Leagues, maybe?

 

I am willing to attribute his ISO drop to the switch in leagues but I am not going to attribute his .100 point drop in BABIp drop to that.

He looks a little pull happy this year.  Seems mental to me, and fixable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores

News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2018 End of Season Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2019 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats







×
×
  • Create New...