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PressBox Article: Mancini has negligible trade value

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5 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Pretty sure Phil Bradley was a better defender and Mancini is approaching his career home run total.  

Any other random late 80s early 90s names you can throw out?  This is kinda fun.

Willie McGee

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6 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think a pretty good (though scary) comp for Mancini is Larry Sheets.   Though 3 full seasons plus a short call-up the year before, he was at 127 OPS+ (Mancini is at 117), 4.5 rWAR (Mancini is at 3.9 now).     Like Mancini, he was a bad outfielder (worse than Mancini, I’d say).    Both reached the majors in their age 24 season. 

Unfortunately, Sheets fell apart in his fourth full season in the majors and was never the same again.   He had an 88 OPS+ and was worth -2.6 rWAR over the remainder of his career.    

While I see the similarities to Sheets there are some big differences.

Sheets was a slow outfielder that was always an outfielder.  Mancini played 1B in college and in the the minors and converted to the outfield in his rookie year in the majors in order to get playing time.  Trey is a 1B by training.

Sheets was drafted out of high school by the O's and signed with them.   He played two years in the low minors before enrolling in a small private college (1200 students).   He played basketball in college while continuing to play in the minors for the O's through his 5 years of college.  Upon graduation from college he played that summer in AAA and was in the majors late that season.

Mancini went to a major college program at Notre Dame.   He was drafted after his junior year.   He spent 4 seasons in the minors before being called up in Sept.

So Mancini drafted as a college 1B.   Sheets as a high school OFer.

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4 hours ago, El Gordo said:

According to Fangraphs he's #3 in the AL for 1B and #5 for RF. Why does he have no value?

I think because we are in an era when teams don’t want to give up anything of real value to plug a hole at positions like that for just a couple months, anybody younger than Trey and with potential to one day be Trey counts as real value, and they are unconvinced that the current version of Trey is gonna last if they keep him. Plus if they are still in a pinch for an outfielder next year they can sign Adam Jones.

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15 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Pretty sure Phil Bradley was a better defender and Mancini is approaching his career home run total.  

Any other random late 80s early 90s names you can throw out?  This is kinda fun.

Orioles who were the Trey Mancini of their decade:

2010s: Mark Trumbo
2000s: Luke Scott
1990s: Bobby Bonilla
1980s: Larry Sheets
1970s: Don Baylor
1960s: Curt Blefary
1950s: Bob Nieman
1940s: Howie Moss
1930s: George Puccinelli 
1920s: Dick Porter
1910s: Butch Schmidt
1900s: Cy Seymour
1890s: George Van Haltren
1880s: Mike Griffin

Some of the comps aren't great, but you don't always have a decade with a first baseman who sometimes played the outfield poorly and also hit quite well, but not always.

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12 hours ago, vatech1994 said:

Larry Sheets was just a weird deal.  He could really rake and then suddenly he couldn’t at a prime age.  It was just odd.  I’d love to know what happened to that guy.

Yes, and I didn’t mean to suggest that I expect Mancini to flatline like Sheets did.    I was just pointing out that to this point in their careers, they were pretty similar.    

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54 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Orioles who were the Trey Mancini of their decade:

2010s: Mark Trumbo
2000s: Luke Scott

1990s: Bobby Bonilla
1980s: Larry Sheets
1970s: Don Baylor
1960s: Curt Blefary
1950s: Bob Nieman
1940s: Howie Moss
1930s: George Puccinelli 
1920s: Dick Porter
1910s: Butch Schmidt
1900s: Cy Seymour
1890s: George Van Haltren
1880s: Mike Griffin

Some of the comps aren't great, but you don't always have a decade with a first baseman who sometimes played the outfield poorly and also hit quite well, but not always.

These are both just bad comps, I don't know why folks continue to say this. Neither player can play 1B as well, neither could hit the ball to all fields, both were more pure power hitters with lesser ability to be selective and get on base. They just aren't the same type of player as Trey at all.

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3 minutes ago, interloper said:

These are both just bad comps, I don't know why folks continue to say this. Neither player can play 1B as well, neither could hit the ball to all fields, both were more pure power hitters with lesser ability to be selective and get on base. They just aren't the same type of player as Trey at all.

I disagree that Trumbo is an inferior first baseman to Mancini.  It isn't as if Mancini is a good first baseman and when he has a chance to play there regularly is isn't as if Trumbo is a bad first baseman.

As for same type of player at all?  They are bat first 1B/CO/DH types with no added value on the basepaths.  Career OPS+ of the three players?  117/117/108.  I wonder how exact a match you are requiring? 

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1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Orioles who were the Trey Mancini of their decade:

2010s: Mark Trumbo
2000s: Luke Scott
1990s: Bobby Bonilla
1980s: Larry Sheets
1970s: Don Baylor
1960s: Curt Blefary
1950s: Bob Nieman
1940s: Howie Moss
1930s: George Puccinelli 
1920s: Dick Porter
1910s: Butch Schmidt
1900s: Cy Seymour
1890s: George Van Haltren
1880s: Mike Griffin

Some of the comps aren't great, but you don't always have a decade with a first baseman who sometimes played the outfield poorly and also hit quite well, but not always.

How about Harold Baines?

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16 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think a pretty good (though scary) comp for Mancini is Larry Sheets.   Though 3 full seasons plus a short call-up the year before, he was at 127 OPS+ (Mancini is at 117), 4.5 rWAR (Mancini is at 3.9 now).     Like Mancini, he was a bad outfielder (worse than Mancini, I’d say).    Both reached the majors in their age 24 season. 

Unfortunately, Sheets fell apart in his fourth full season in the majors and was never the same again.   He had an 88 OPS+ and was worth -2.6 rWAR over the remainder of his career.    

Mancini is on track for 145 OPS+. The question with any young player trending up is whether he sustains it or regresses to the mean. If he sustains it (or even close), that would put him on an entirely different level than Sheets.

Interestingly, Sheets peaked at 143 OPS+ before collapsing.

A really, really high end comp would be Edgar Martinez, who put up 74, 133, 138, 164, 100 through age 30.

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39 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes, and I didn’t mean to suggest that I expect Mancini to flatline like Sheets did.    I was just pointing out that to this point in their careers, they were pretty similar.    

Oh, I didn’t take it that way at all.  I didn’t think you were being predictive.  I was just chiming in because Larry Sheets is still to this day one of those “what the hell happened there” situations for me.  The guy went from an All Star level hitter to a sub-replacement hitter from one season to the next from 28 to 29 and never recovered.  Just really weird.

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/player.php?p=sheetla01

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9 hours ago, Chavez Ravine said:

I think because we are in an era when teams don’t want to give up anything of real value to plug a hole at positions like that for just a couple months, anybody younger than Trey and with potential to one day be Trey counts as real value, and they are unconvinced that the current version of Trey is gonna last if they keep him. Plus if they are still in a pinch for an outfielder next year they can sign Adam Jones.

A couple months? Mancini is not a FA until 2023. He would not be a rental if traded this year or even next year.

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15 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Mancini is on track for 145 OPS+. The question with any young player trending up is whether he sustains it or regresses to the mean. If he sustains it (or even close), that would put him on an entirely different level than Sheets.

Interestingly, Sheets peaked at 143 OPS+ before collapsing.

A really, really high end comp would be Edgar Martinez, who put up 74, 133, 138, 164, 100 through age 30.

I guess those last two points are really important.

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1 hour ago, interloper said:

These are both just bad comps, I don't know why folks continue to say this. Neither player can play 1B as well, neither could hit the ball to all fields, both were more pure power hitters with lesser ability to be selective and get on base. They just aren't the same type of player as Trey at all.

Let's see... DHs, left fielders, and first basemen; all played at least a little of each.  Power hitters with career slugging marks between 460 and 480.  Listed weights between 215 and 225.  Career highs in walks of 54, 59, and 44 with Trey having worst mark of the three but makes up for that by having a little higher average.  None of them are plus fielders anywhere, although Scott was probably the best outfielder of the three and you could argue about whether Trumbo or Mancini were better first basemen.  Baserunning value for all three through age 27 was within a few runs of zero, and none of them ever stole 10 bases in a season.  None of them were MLB regulars before age 25.  8th, 9th, and 18th round picks.  All had random seasons in mid career with sub-100 OPS+es.

There are a lot more similarities here than differences.

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Yes, and I didn’t mean to suggest that I expect Mancini to flatline like Sheets did.    I was just pointing out that to this point in their careers, they were pretty similar.    

It's worth nothing/watching that Sheets had his big year in 1987, the year of the obviously juiced ball.  Mancini is having his biggest year so far in what's looking like the biggest HR season in MLB history, by far.

In 1988 MLB returned the ball to a pile of mush and Sheets was never the same.  I wonder what, if anything, MLB will do to the ball in 2020?

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