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Lowther vs. Wells: Tale of the Tape

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Lowther (age 23): 14 starts, 75.1 IP, 47 H, 19 R, 17 ER, 4 HR, 36 BB, 70 K’s, 2.03 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 1.9 K/BB

Wells (age 22): 12 starts, 68.2 IP, 55 H, 17 R, 15 ER, 2 HR, 17 BB, 48 K’s, 1.97 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 2.8 K/BB

Lowther has limited hits more and strikes out more hitters.   Wells limits walks better and gets deeper into games because he’s more pitch-efficient.    Both have been terrific at keeping the ball in the yard.   

I think the conventional wisdom is that Lowther’s fastball plays better than Wells’ even though they’re close in velocity, and he may have a bit more bite on his curve.   Wells seems to have better feel for the change up.    Tony, Luke and others can correct or update me if any of this is wrong or if their profiles have changed as the year has progressed.    

It’s interesting that we have two somewhat similar soft-tossing lefties pitching back-to-back in the Bowie rotation.    Wells has thrived despite being preceded by a pretty similar pitcher.    

Both will have their skeptics despite their impressive numbers, Wells probably moreso since he doesn’t miss as many bats.   But I’m excited to see how both progress.   

It should be noted that the Eastern League is very much a pitcher’s league this year, with a 3.53 ERA league wide.    

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I have Lowther as the 5th best prospect right now.  Passing Diaz, Hays, Akins and McKenna on the Orioles.con  prospect list.

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Remember when Means was considered a soft tosser? Now he’s “crafty.”  He did hit 95 in the 5th last night.  I think there is a great deal to be said for life on your fastball and ability to hide the ball.  Guess analytics/trackman are better quantifying the former but not sure how you use analytics to quantify a pitcher’s deception.  

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Too many walks for Lowther.  I see him as a reliever.  Wells might not even be a ML pitcher but he's a strike thrower so he has a chance.  Wells and Kremer throw strikes.  I like their chances as starters over Akin, Lowther, Baumann.

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17 hours ago, wildcard said:

I have Lowther as the 5th best prospect right now.  Passing Diaz, Hays, Akins and McKenna on the Orioles.con  prospect list.

I'd strongly have to disagree with you.

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16 hours ago, Punchandjudy said:

Remember when Means was considered a soft tosser? Now he’s “crafty.”  He did hit 95 in the 5th last night.  I think there is a great deal to be said for life on your fastball and ability to hide the ball.  Guess analytics/trackman are better quantifying the former but not sure how you use analytics to quantify a pitcher’s deception.  

Lowther will never throw 95 at the MLB level. 

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2 hours ago, weams said:

Lowther will never throw 95 at the MLB level. 

He’s topped out at 94 so it isn’t a huge stretch. Add the deception and I think his fastball probably grades out as good if not better than Means.

Hitters don’t seem to square him up even at 88-92. 

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4 hours ago, weams said:

Lowther will never throw 95 at the MLB level. 

they could change the gun like they did a few years ago and make him and everyone else look like they are throwing harder.  Or maybe they will juice the ball for the pitchers like they have for this hitters.  Regardless, I’ve learned in life never to say never.

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5 hours ago, ChuckS said:

He’s topped out at 94 so it isn’t a huge stretch. Add the deception and I think his fastball probably grades out as good if not better than Means.

Hitters don’t seem to square him up even at 88-92. 

Means does and always has thrown strikes. Lowther's fastball might be a better pitch but he's hitting pitch counts by the 5th inning in AA.   Unless that changes significantly, he's not ML starter material. He and Akin proved my point today.

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53 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Means does and always has thrown strikes. Lowther's fastball might be a better pitch but he's hitting pitch counts by the 5th inning in AA.   Unless that changes significantly, he's not ML starter material. He and Akin proved my point today.

They aren’t pushing these guys in the minors  past 90 pitches most of the time.

Akin and Lowther have performed considerably better than Means in the minors.  They are certainly major league starter material as much as Means was coming into the season. 

 

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Means threw strikes with mediocre stuff.  He improved his changeup significantly and there is talk that even is fastball ticked up.  Agreed that his prospects as a starter were no better than those guys.  Something significant will, IMO, have to improve for Lowther, Akin, and Baumann to stick as starters.  Right now, I would say command is the biggest issue.  The walk totals of Lowther and Akin are huge red flags and I suspect Baumann's will be poor IF he starts at AA.  

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Update:

Lowther 21 starts, 116.0 IP, 78 H, 38 R, 35 ER, 56 BB, 116 K’s, 2.72 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 2.1 K/BB

Wells 19 starts, 110.2 IP, 95 H, 29 R, 26 ER, 19 BB, 85 K’s, 2.11 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 4.5 K/BB

Lowther misses more bats and is a bit harder to hit; Wells keeps walks to a minimum and gets deeper into games.

I figure each of them have 5 starts remaining.    

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Lowther's walks are too high.  Need to come down quite a bit.  But man, they don't square him up (78 hits in 116 innings) and he misses bats.  

Regarding Wells, how many other starters in the minors have under a 2.0 BB/9?  I would think not too many at all.  

Really excited to see what these guys can do in Norfolk and Baltimore next year. 

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7 hours ago, ChuckS said:

Regarding Wells, how many other starters in the minors have under a 2.0 BB/9?  I would think not too many at all.  

Maybe more than you think.   In the Eastern League there are 12, 4 of whom qualify for the ERA title.   I expect many of the other 8 were promoted to or from the league during the season.   

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