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Philip

Means ROY?

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Vlad Jr is getting all the hype and it’s easier for a position player to win the award, and the Jays are almost as bad as we are and need a Messiah almost as badly as we do, so they have the same sense of needing something special this year, but how reasonable is it to think that Means could win? Who are the other contenders?

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Brandon Lowe is a bigger threat than Vlad Jr. right now.  Hype alone isn't going to win him VGJ the award.  He's just been okay so far. 

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Here’s a list of all rookies in the majors:   

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2019-rookies.shtml

Way more good rookies in the NL this year.    In the AL I’d say the top choices are (not necessarily in this order):

- Brandon Lowe, Tampa, .279/.339/.523, 16 HR, 49 RBI, 2.9 rWAR

- Michael Chavis, Boston, .265/.336/.470,  14 HR, 44 RBI, 1.2 rWAR

- Eloy Jimenez, White Sox, .243/.303/.468, 14 HR, 33 RBI, 0.0 rWAR

- Spencer Turnbull, Tigers, 3.31 ERA in 89.2 IP, 2.1 rWAR

- Ty Buttrey, Angels, 2.27 ERA in 39.2 innings in relief, 1.6 rWAR

- Griffin Canning, Angels, 3.79 ERA in 11 starts, 61.2 IP, 1.5 rWAR

- John Means, Orioles, 2.50 ERA in 82.2 IP, 3.2 rWAR

To me, at this point it’s pretty clearly between Means and Lowe.    But with almost half a season to play, a lot can change between now and the end of the year.    Let’s just hope Means continues to pitch well.    

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I think that this type of talk needs to wait until the end of August.  So much can happen between now and then that the cart should stay behind the horse.

 

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Well, the thing that (mostly) wins awards these days is WAR.  It's stupid because it takes any nuance and fun out of debates but it is what it is.

If Means wins the WAR race, he'll win ROY.  

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 It’s probably a little bit early to be talking about it, but the alternative Is to drink more, whine about how terrible we are, ponder replacing the big squad with the entire Bowie roster, And argue about which guys are going to come up next.

so why not?

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1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well, the thing that (mostly) wins awards these days is WAR.  It's stupid because it takes any nuance and fun out of debates but it is what it is.

If Means wins the WAR race, he'll win ROY.  

Wins above replacement. The voters would know who Means replacement would be. 

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50 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well, the thing that (mostly) wins awards these days is WAR.  It's stupid because it takes any nuance and fun out of debates but it is what it is.

If Means wins the WAR race, he'll win ROY.  

This seems like kind of a baseless statement to me.    Here are the last 10 rookies of the year in each league:

NL - Coghlan*, Posey*, Kimbrel*, Harper, Fernandez, deGrom, Bryant, Seager, Bellinger, Acuna

AL - Bailey, Feliz*, Hellickson, Trout, Myers*, Abreu, Correa*, Fulmer, Judge, Ohtani*.

* Winner did not lead his league’s rookies in WAR.

While it’s true that the player with the highest WAR won 13 times out of 20, that’s still plenty of times when the voters went a different direction.    In virtually every case where the voters chose the WAR leader, the choice would have been very obvious even if WAR didn’t exist.    

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3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

This seems like kind of a baseless statement to me.    Here are the last 10 rookies of the year in each league:

NL - Coghlan*, Posey*, Kimbrel*, Harper, Fernandez, deGrom, Bryant, Seager, Bellinger, Acuna

AL - Bailey, Feliz*, Hellickson, Trout, Myers*, Abreu, Correa*, Fulmer, Judge, Ohtani*.

* Winner did not lead his league’s rookies in WAR.

While it’s true that the player with the highest WAR won 13 times out of 20, that’s still plenty of times when the voters went a different direction.    In virtually every case where the voters chose the WAR leader, the choice would have been very obvious even if WAR didn’t exist.    

Yeah, I said "mostly," Frob.

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2 hours ago, ChuckS said:

Brandon Lowe is a bigger threat than Vlad Jr. right now.  Hype alone isn't going to win him VGJ the award.  He's just been okay so far. 

I read that as Very Good Jr.

I like it better that way

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1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah, I said "mostly," Frob.

Yes, I know.    But I really wonder how much WAR dominates the debate.    Obviously it’s a useful tool.   It’s interesting to look at the cases where WAR didn’t win out.  

2009 NL, Chris Coghlan (1.1 WAR, 10th among ROY candidates).   Coghlan hit .321 with a .390 OBP, both highest among ROY candidates.  Complete fluke for a guy who finished his career with a .258 BA.   The WAR leader was Randy Wells 4.3 WAR), who went 12-10 with a 3.05 ERA for the Cubs in 27 starts.    Other notables who bested Coghlan In WAR were JA Happ (3.9), Andrew McCutchen (2.4) and Colby Rasmus (1.9). 

2010 NL, Buster Posey (3.9 rWAR, 2nd).   Posey was far behind Jason Heyward in WAR (6.4), but took 20 first place votes to Heyward’s 9.   Their offensive numbers were very similar, and both teams made the playoffs.    This probably comes down to voters thinking a good hitting catcher is a rare commodity.   

2010 AL, Naftali Feliz (2.5 rWAR, 4th).  Finished behind Austin Jackson (5.1), Brian Matusz (2.8!) and John Jaso (2.6).   Voters bought the save stat (40).

2011 NL, Craig Kimbrel (2.4 rWAR, 3rd).     He was behind Vance Worley (3.5) and Danny Espinosa (2.6), but saves (46) won out again.  

2013 AL, Wil Myers (2.2 rWAR, 2nd).   He was topped in WAR by a better defender, David Lough (2.6), but his offensive superiority (.831 vs. .724 OPS) won out.    

2015 AL, Carlos Correa (4.2 rWAR, 2nd).    Francisco Lindor edged him out in WAR (4.6), but Correa had a slightly higher OPS and more  HR and RBI.     Another case of the voters going with offense over defense.

2018 AL, Shohei Ohtani (3.9 rWAR, 2nd).    He was beaten out in WAR by Tampa’s Joey Wendle (4.6), who I quite literally have never heard of even though we play Tampa 19 times a year.   Voters went with the unicorn, and justifiably so IMO.   Wendle got no votes, with the Yankees’ Andujar picking up 5 to Ohtani’s 25.

What I take from this is that voters have not bought into the defensive component of WAR all the way, and recognize that a dominant reliever won’t earn a lot of WAR.

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1 hour ago, Philip said:

 It’s probably a little bit early to be talking about it, but the alternative Is to drink more, whine about how terrible we are, ponder replacing the big squad with the entire Bowie roster, And argue about which guys are going to come up next.

so why not?

I'm all for drinking more. All the rest of it, it's what we do around here. Talk and argue and bemoan everything Orioles. Endlessly. :D

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You can tell Frobby is off work today. Plenty of time to do all this great research!

 

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