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Philip

Means ROY?

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1 minute ago, scOtt said:

You can tell Frobby is off work today. Plenty of time to do all this great research!

 

8f5ecf492a62664b8de1fa526e9faf7d3c36643a

He's like Jim Palmer without the pitching talent, or DrungoHazewood with a few less GB of RAM.

Seriously what even is Drungo?  Apparently he is a person but I bet you pop off that faceplate and it's nothing but circuitry and punchcards full of facts about Chris Sabo.

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6 minutes ago, scOtt said:

You can tell Frobby is off work today. Plenty of time to do all this great research!

 

8f5ecf492a62664b8de1fa526e9faf7d3c36643a

Actually, I’m on vacation in Telluride, Colorado, summoning up the energy to go out for a 2-3 hour hike.   Fantastic weather here, 71 degrees and no humidity whatsoever.    

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3 minutes ago, Barnaby Graves said:

He's like Jim Palmer without the pitching talent, or DrungoHazewood with a few less GB of RAM.

Seriously what even is Drungo?  Apparently he is a person but I bet you pop off that faceplate and it's nothing but circuitry and punchcards full of facts about Chris Sabo.

I think Drungo was the guy who hit like .475 in ST for the Orioles but didn't make the club. I may be wrong tho.

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6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Actually, I’m on vacation in Telluride, Colorado, summoning up the energy to go out for a 2-3 hour hike.   Fantastic weather here, 71 degrees and no humidity whatsoever.    

Careful, they hide it up in Telluride.

 

It's brutal down here today, had a nice lightning storm at 3AM, not sure if it even rained.

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He's looking pretty good right now. I didn't realize he was that far above some of the other candidates. There's still a lot of baseball to play,  but he's certainly sitting pretty at the moment.

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Means is starting to get noticed after being ignored in the preseason.

Quote

AL Rookie of the Half-Year

BRANDON LOWE, RAYS

I told a friend in spring training that Brandon Lowe could win the AL Rookie of the Year Award. His reaction was what you’d expect: “Wow.” Because after all …Vladdy! Eloy! Cavan Biggio! Michael Chavis! Yordan Alvarez! And not that far over the horizon … Jo Adell! Bo Bichette! Forrest Whitley! Jesus Luzardo! And more!

But this isn’t the Preseason Hype Award. This is an in-season performance award. And for half a season at least, Lowe has outproduced all of those hotshots, leading all AL rookies in homers, slugging, OPS, extra-base hits and plenty of other stuff. Is it kind of ominous that he’s on pace to strike out strike out 196 times and walk just 41 times? Uh, yeah. Is that .381 average on balls in play sustainable? Probably not.

So maybe one of America’s most famous prospects will wind up overtaking the Rays’ below-the-radar second baseman between now and the finish line, kind of like a Rookie of the Year version of racing The Flash. But for now, it’s Lowe’s award to lose.

Apologies to: John Means, Chavis, Biggio, Oscar Mercado.

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24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes, I know.    But I really wonder how much WAR dominates the debate.    Obviously it’s a useful tool.   It’s interesting to look at the cases where WAR didn’t win out.  

2009 NL, Chris Coghlan (1.1 WAR, 10th among ROY candidates).   Coghlan hit .321 with a .390 OBP, both highest among ROY candidates.  Complete fluke for a guy who finished his career with a .258 BA.   The WAR leader was Randy Wells 4.3 WAR), who went 12-10 with a 3.05 ERA for the Cubs in 27 starts.    Other notables who bested Coghlan In WAR were JA Happ (3.9), Andrew McCutchen (2.4) and Colby Rasmus (1.9). 

2010 NL, Buster Posey (3.9 rWAR, 2nd).   Posey was far behind Jason Heyward in WAR (6.4), but took 20 first place votes to Heyward’s 9.   Their offensive numbers were very similar, and both teams made the playoffs.    This probably comes down to voters thinking a good hitting catcher is a rare commodity.   

2010 AL, Naftali Feliz (2.5 rWAR, 4th).  Finished behind Austin Jackson (5.1), Brian Matusz (2.8!) and John Jaso (2.6).   Voters bought the save stat (40).

2011 NL, Craig Kimbrel (2.4 rWAR, 3rd).     He was behind Vance Worley (3.5) and Danny Espinosa (2.6), but saves (46) won out again.  

2013 AL, Wil Myers (2.2 rWAR, 2nd).   He was topped in WAR by a better defender, David Lough (2.6), but his offensive superiority (.831 vs. .724 OPS) won out.    

2015 AL, Carlos Correa (4.2 rWAR, 2nd).    Francisco Lindor edged him out in WAR (4.6), but Correa had a slightly higher OPS and more  HR and RBI.     Another case of the voters going with offense over defense.

2018 AL, Shohei Ohtani (3.9 rWAR, 2nd).    He was beaten out in WAR by Tampa’s Joey Wendle (4.6), who I quite literally have never heard of even though we play Tampa 19 times a year.   Voters went with the unicorn, and justifiably so IMO.   Wendle got no votes, with the Yankees’ Andujar picking up 5 to Ohtani’s 25.

What I take from this is that voters have not bought into the defensive component of WAR all the way, and recognize that a dominant reliever won’t earn a lot of WAR.

It is about the same in MVP voting

2018: AL  Betts 10.9, Trout 10.2 

NL Yelich 7.6*, over Baez 6.3  but , DeGrom had 10.1 and finished 5th.  

 

2017: AL  Altuve tied Judge at 8.1 . Still they finished 1 and 2 ahead of Jose Ramirez and Mike Trout 6.9 and 6.6 respectively

NL Stanton 7.9 over Votto's 7.4

 

2016:  AL Trout 10.5 over Betts 9.7

NL Bryant 7.4 over Dan Murphy 4.5, Seager 5.9

 

2015: AL Donaldson* beats Trout with a lower total, 8.5 to 9.4.  

NL Harper 10.0 over Goldschmidt 8.7

 

2014:  AL Trout 7.6 over V-Mart 5.5

NL Kershaw 8.2 over Stanton 6.5 pitcher wins!

 

2013: AL OH NO!!! Miguel Cabrera* and his Triple Crown beats Trout!  OUTRAGE!

NL McCutcheon 7.9 over Goldschmidt 7.1

 

2012:  AL Outrage again!!!  Cabrera* over Trout!

NL Posey 7.6 over Braun 6.9

 

2011: AL  Verlander 8.6 over Ellsbury (wtf) 8.3

Braun* 7.7 over  Kemp 8.0

 

2010:  AL Hamilton 8.7 over Cabrera 6.5 and Cano 8.1

Votto* 7.0 over Pujols 7.5

 

2009: Mauer 7.8 over Teixeira 5.3 and Jeter 6.6

Pujols 9.7 over HanRam 7.4

14/20 of the winners have been WAR leaders unless you count deGrom last year finishing 5th which is a real outlier for someone having a WAR like that and finishing that low.  That didn't happen any other year.  

If you count deGrom last year.....OMG 13/20!!!  SAMESIES!

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6 hours ago, Philip said:

Vlad Jr is getting all the hype and it’s easier for a position player to win the award, and the Jays are almost as bad as we are and need a Messiah almost as badly as we do, so they have the same sense of needing something special this year, but how reasonable is it to think that Means could win? Who are the other contenders?

Means has no chancec for ROY. IMO 

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11 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

Means has no chancec for ROY. IMO 

Yeah, but was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

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7 hours ago, ChuckS said:

Brandon Lowe is a bigger threat than Vlad Jr. right now.  Hype alone isn't going to win him VGJ the award.  He's just been okay so far. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/07/rays-brandon-lowe-injured-list-all-star.html

Quote

The Rays announced Wednesday that they’ve placed second baseman Brandon Lowe on the 10-day injured list due to a right shin contusion.

 

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Well, our guy also spent 10 days on the injured list. The problem is that position players play every day which means they have a chance to screw up or exel 150 odd times a year.

Pitchers MAY get 25-30 chances.

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3 minutes ago, Philip said:

Well, our guy also spent 10 days on the injured list. The problem is that position players play every day which means they have a chance to screw up or exel 150 odd times a year.

Pitchers MAY get 25-30 chances.

Means top competition for ROY is now on the injured list. Means just needs to stay healthy the rest of the season and pitch well. Vlad Jr has the hype, but he has to start hitting up to the hype. 

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Just now, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Means top competition for ROY is now on the injured list. Means just needs to stay healthy the rest of the season and pitch well. Vlad Jr has the hype, but he has to start hitting up to the hype. 

It's a shin contusion, I don't expect him to be out all that long.

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