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Mancini Drawing Interest

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On 7/7/2019 at 12:26 PM, SteveA said:

I'll modify that slightly: "Mancini is not old, not overpriced, and offers plenty of control.  If you don't get good Vale for him, simply don't deal him".

I don't consider him "young" anymore.  He won't be "cheap" in arbitration either.  But he won't be super expensive.  I agree we shouldn't trade him for peanuts.  It has to be a good deal.

This is how I look at the situation. I'm not giving Mancini away, but if the right deal was offered I'd move him. Cashner is the only guy that needs to be moved because he's a pending free agent. You move Villar, Mancini, Bundy and Givens in the right deals.

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2 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

Are the Brewers an option? Aguilar has been better lately and Thames is an option at 1B, but we saw them acquire Schoop and Moustakas last year without a clear position for either. With Lorenzo Cain not hitting, would they limit his playing time despite the defense and slide Yelich to CF (where he played before in Miami)? If that's the case, Mancini could go to RF. The team is sputtering and could use an extra bat. It's not conventional nor what I would do, but given what the team did last year--and still got to the NLCS--I wouldn't be shocked if they made a play.

 

 I really doubt that anybody in this particular universe would actually trade for Mancini for the purpose of putting him in right field. The Brewers are fine. And Lorenzo Cain could hit like Chris Davis and still be an asset.

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1 minute ago, Philip said:

 I really doubt that anybody in this particular universe would actually trade for Mancini for the purpose of putting him in right field. The Brewers are fine. And Lorenzo Cain could hit like Chris Davis and still be an asset.

I didn't think anyone would trade for Schoop and play him at SS in a third of the teams he played the rest of the way either. While it obviously didn't work out, it was because of the bat more than anything. In this scenario, I don't see them playing him at RF exclusively, but they've done some weird things playing guys out of position recently. Schoop to Milwaukee came out of nowhere last year. All I'm saying is I wouldn't be shocked if Milwaukee or another team that's not a seeming fit comes out of nowhere again this year. The question is: will the offer be enough for Elias who would obviously value a different type of return than DD.

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1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

This is how I look at the situation. I'm not giving Mancini away, but if the right deal was offered I'd move him. Cashner is the only guy that needs to be moved because he's a pending free agent. You move Villar, Mancini, Bundy and Givens in the right deals.

“Who bells the cat?”

Perhaps instead of discussing whether he will be traded, or should be traded, We discuss what the three teams( Boston, Tampa and The Indians) would be likely to offer and whether that would be enough.

I think 1)his value, such as it is, is peak right now 2) Moving him would open up a very important roster spot, allow Nunez to play first daily, keep Sisco in the lineup, and call up a real outfielder to handle RF. 

So there would be benefits beyond any trade return.

Dont give him away, But be realistic.

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2 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I didn't think anyone would trade for Schoop and play him at SS in a third of the teams he played the rest of the way either. While it obviously didn't work out, it was because of the bat more than anything. In this scenario, I don't see them playing him at RF exclusively, but they've done some weird things playing guys out of position recently. Schoop to Milwaukee came out of nowhere last year. All I'm saying is I wouldn't be shocked if Milwaukee or another team that's not a seeming fit comes out of nowhere again this year. The question is: will the offer be enough for Elias who would obviously value a different type of return than DD.

 That’s an excellent point, but Milwaukee’s logic, whatever it was, obviously failed miserably. Do you think they’re prone to that kind of move again this year?

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8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

This is how I look at the situation. I'm not giving Mancini away, but if the right deal was offered I'd move him. Cashner is the only guy that needs to be moved because he's a pending free agent. You move Villar, Mancini, Bundy and Givens in the right deals.

The option of walking away from the bargaining table always strengthens one's position.

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3 hours ago, atomic said:

Looking at contenders rosters, teams that have guys struggling at DH or 1B have guys on the bench that can step in and get more playing time.  The problem with these positions is anyone can play them.  If Mancini was just a bad outfielder he could be much more valuable.  But as he is absolutely horrible in the outfield his value is very low. 

Mancini has actually improved while playing RF this year. He's been just -2 OOA and -2% catch added (his rookie year he was -3 and last year was -5 catch % added), which is the same as Santander (in much less time out there) and Wilkerson. Dwight Smith Jr. has put up a -7 OOA.

So while Mancini is not a plus defender out there, he not so bad where he kills a team in RF. His route running is solid average and his jumps have actually improved to 0.3 (0.0 is MLB average). His problem is he has poor burst speed (-2.0) but that has improved from -3.1 his rookie year and -2.7 last year. His -1 OAA on 2-star catches is in the 47.6 percentile in baseball which makes him a slightly below average outfielder on routine catches.

In other words, Mancini has actually improved defensively since moving out there and although I would still prefer him at 1B, he's not so bad in RF that it hurts his value, unless of course you want use the severely flawwed dWAR metric to define his worth. BTW, I don't think any teams uses dWar any longer now that the statcast information truly measures defensive ability in outfield.

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19 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

This is how I look at the situation. I'm not giving Mancini away, but if the right deal was offered I'd move him. Cashner is the only guy that needs to be moved because he's a pending free agent. You move Villar, Mancini, Bundy and Givens in the right deals.

I'm not sure I'd group Villar with the other three, but otherwise agree. Lots of teams could use bullpen help though so this might be the time to trade Givens.  

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1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Maybe we all just misread the headline of this post. Maybe it was "Mancini's Drawing Interests". Is he into charcoal? or pens? or maybe he's more of a water color kinda guy. 

Can someone please photoshop Trey Mancini's head onto Bob Ross' body? 

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Just now, wildbillhiccup said:

I'm not sure I'd group Villar with the other three, but otherwise agree. Lots of teams could use bullpen help though so this might be the time to trade Givens.  

I don't necessarily believe Villar will fetch much right now which is why it would take the right deal. The Orioles are able to afford him next year and hope he has a good walk year and provide more value at next year's trading deadline.

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18 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't necessarily believe Villar will fetch much right now which is why it would take the right deal. The Orioles are able to afford him next year and hope he has a good walk year and provide more value at next year's trading deadline.

I’m going to sound like a broken record here but I just don’t see the point of a 45-50 win team spending $2+ million on Villar the rest of this season, and then watching him get $6 million in arb next year. 

I say take what you can get for him now, even if the market isn’t there. Might as well give Martin all the ABs at SS and pray he can turn into something. Plus that then opens up 2B for Wilkerson to get ABs. We have my boy Jace Peterson for 2B if need be. Haha. 

Bottomline... this team shouldn’t be spending money on any players right now. We’re stuck with Trumbo, Davis, and Cobb. Maybe we have to wait a year to trade Bundy and Givens, I’d pull the trigger now. I think Mancini’s value is at its highest too, just no market. 

2021 is looking like a pipe dream. Maybe even 2022. We need future assets. 

I like the idea of Cashner to Boston. Mancini to TB. Bundy and Givens to Milwaukee. Villar to whoever wants to upgrade their Util spot. 

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34 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Mancini has actually improved while playing RF this year. He's been just -2 OOA and -2% catch added (his rookie year he was -3 and last year was -5 catch % added), which is the same as Santander (in much less time out there) and Wilkerson. Dwight Smith Jr. has put up a -7 OOA.

So while Mancini is not a plus defender out there, he not so bad where he kills a team in RF. His route running is solid average and his jumps have actually improved to 0.3 (0.0 is MLB average). His problem is he has poor burst speed (-2.0) but that has improved from -3.1 his rookie year and -2.7 last year. His -1 OAA on 2-star catches is in the 47.6 percentile in baseball which makes him a slightly below average outfielder on routine catches.

In other words, Mancini has actually improved defensively since moving out there and although I would still prefer him at 1B, he's not so bad in RF that it hurts his value, unless of course you want use the severely flawwed dWAR metric to define his worth. BTW, I don't think any teams uses dWar any longer now that the statcast information truly measures defensive ability in outfield.

I totally agree. He's not great but he's no Trumbo in RF.

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28 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't necessarily believe Villar will fetch much right now which is why it would take the right deal. The Orioles are able to afford him next year and hope he has a good walk year and provide more value at next year's trading deadline.

I just don't think he's that important to this team. The others at least have the potential to be, even if they aren't living up to those expectations right now. 

Not to beat a dead horse, but I was absolutely baffled why we accepted Villar (instead of prospects) as part of the Schoop deal. It was move of a confused team that still hadn't accepted the fact that they needed to completely tear it down. What a waste of a trade chip. Oh well, water under the bridge I guess. 

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3 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

So you're basically saying they shouldn't even shop him because no team is going to give them the moon for Trey Mancini. 

No ...that's very not what I'm saying. You listen .....if you get value plus them you move him. But, I view him as a 1B as that's his position. He's been pushed into the COF because the Os are stuck with Davis. He's not an outfielder anymore than Davis is a pitcher. You don't diminish his value because he's a below average defender in the OF. 

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3 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I just don't think he's that important to this team. The others at least have the potential to be, even if they aren't living up to those expectations right now. 

Not to beat a dead horse, but I was absolutely baffled why we accepted Villar (instead of prospects) as part of the Schoop deal. It was move of a confused team that still hadn't accepted the fact that they needed to completely tear it down. What a waste of a trade chip. Oh well, water under the bridge I guess. 

Perhaps Duquette was planning to move him for prospects and hoping he'd improve his value here. I think the deal with Villar was the best he was offered. Remember that PA was in the background meddling. 

I don't understand why everyone is so down on Villar. So he's basically a 2B who has played SS way too much due to Martins struggles. 

He so far is a1 war player but his OWar is 1.9 and his DWAR is -.5. When he played 2B for the Brewers he was a .7 DWAR. So playing out of his position has hurt him. A contender likely wouldn't try to play him at SS.

 

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