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BA Midseason Top 100

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BP Top 50

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/51383/2019-prospects-the-midseason-50/

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34.) Ryan Mountcastle, 1B, Baltimore Orioles

Why he’ll succeed: Mountcastle has an advanced hit tool and plus power that’s starting to play fully in games. (There’s that pesky Triple-A baseball thing again.) He’s hit everywhere he’s played, although not always immediately, and he’s on the verge of the majors now. We’re never happy with how high he is on these lists, because it’s extremely a hit-first profile and not entirely a safe one, but he just keeps on moving along at a solid pace of development.

Why he might fail: He finally found a position, which is good. It’s first base, which is less good. In the course of the last two years, Mountcastle has slid down the defensive spectrum from shortstop to third base to first base. We expected that might happen—shortstop in particular was a pipe dream—and we’re glad to see he is comfortable at first. But that’s going to put a lot of pressure on his bat, and there’s enough length and chase in his swing that it’s not a lock that he’s going to hit enough to carry the day.

They don't seem to think the lack of walks is a big concern.

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49.) Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Baltimore Orioles

Why he’ll succeed: Here’s the first of the two promised righty versions of the prototypical Texas prep arm to close us out. Rodriguez isn’t quite as big as Muller, but he’s still a big guy. He also runs the heater up into the mid 90s, but he mixes a potential plus slider and a curve as breaking offerings, along with a nascent change. It all looks right and flashes right.

Why he might fail: The edges still need some sanding down. His command isn’t quite there yet. The curve and slider bleed together. He doesn’t seem comfortable out of the stretch yet. It’s going to take awhile to come together if it does. There’s a significant risk that he ends up as a power arm out of the pen with the fastball and one of the breaking balls, and some risk that he doesn’t make it at all.

 

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2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

BP Top 50

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/51383/2019-prospects-the-midseason-50/

They don't seem to think the lack of walks is a big concern.

 

This line would seem to at least hint at the lack of walks being a concern, no?

"We’re never happywith how high he is on these lists, because it’s extremely a hit-first profile and not entirely a safe one"

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8 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

This line would seem to at least hint at the lack of walks being a concern, no?

"We’re never happywith how high he is on these lists, because it’s extremely a hit-first profile and not entirely a safe one"

I said big concern. 

I agree that the "not entirely a safe one" is in all probability about his walk rate.  Seems like a mild enough comment.

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I have always been amazed over the years by how many young hitters don't have strike zone awareness. That's the first thing any hitter should have.

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12 hours ago, VaBird1 said:

DL Hall  32

Grayson Rodriguez 58

Ryan Mountcastle 67

Yusniel Diaz 69

Had to be in the minors on June 10 to qualify.

The draft would probably only add 5-10 players to the top 100.  The biggest thing about these lists is players move up just because attrition. Players make their debuts, lose their “prospect” status, then they just slot everyone up. A player has to really blow up to fall out of a top 100. Like Hunter Harvey. He was ranked for a long time. 

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14 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The draft would probably only add 5-10 players to the top 100.  The biggest thing about these lists is players move up just because attrition. Players make their debuts, lose their “prospect” status, then they just slot everyone up. A player has to really blow up to fall out of a top 100. Like Hunter Harvey. He was ranked for a long time. 

Hunter Harvey was only ranked in BAs top 100 one year. In 2015 he was 68.

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If Hays can catch fire in the 2nd half you could end up having 6 top 100 prospects (Adley) by the end of the season.

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4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The draft would probably only add 5-10 players to the top 100.  The biggest thing about these lists is players move up just because attrition. Players make their debuts, lose their “prospect” status, then they just slot everyone up. A player has to really blow up to fall out of a top 100. Like Hunter Harvey. He was ranked for a long time. 

I don't see anyone move up because of attrition.  People fall off all the time and new players take their place. Just because someone doesn't make it out of the draft doesn't mean they won't be there by the beginning of next year. DL Hall I don't believe was on the list out of the draft.  Rightfully so you shouldn't be on the list right out of the draft unless you are a top 5 or so guy.  So many picks fail and fail early.  

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12 hours ago, Satyr3206 said:

I have always been amazed over the years by how many young hitters don't have strike zone awareness. That's the first thing any hitter should have.

Agreed.  This is another reason why I think Diaz will be just fine.  He's 22 years old, knows how to take a walk, and has an OPS well above average in Bowie's league.  I still have faith he'll be a solid, 775-825 OPS regular.

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4 hours ago, Yardball85 said:

Agreed.  This is another reason why I think Diaz will be just fine.  He's 22 years old, knows how to take a walk, and has an OPS well above average in Bowie's league.  I still have faith he'll be a solid, 775-825 OPS regular.

He hit .239 at Bowie last year and .240 this year at Bowie.  That doesn't look good.  

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17 hours ago, Satyr3206 said:

I have always been amazed over the years by how many young hitters don't have strike zone awareness. That's the first thing any hitter should have.

Walk rate doesn't mean you have high strike zone awareness.  Mark Reynolds and Chris Davis walked quite a bit in their careers but I consistently saw them take pitches right down the middle on one pitch and the next pitch swing at balls in the dirt.  

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8 minutes ago, atomic said:

He hit .239 at Bowie last year and .240 this year at Bowie.  That doesn't look good.  

Scouting a minor leaguer by his BA is so stupid. Literally no worse way to do it.

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8 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Scouting a minor leaguer by his BA is so stupid. Literally no worse way to do it.

If a guy is hitting .240 it isn't a good sign.  You can make excuses all you want.  Mike Trout hit .326 in AA. Adam Jones .298.  Chistian Yelich .288.  Kevin Kiermaier .307. Dexter Fowler .333.  Joc Pederson .278. AJ Pollock .301. Adam Eaton .302. Charlie Blackmon, George Spring .297, Billy Hamilton .296

I just grabbed a list of center fielders and all of them hit well in AA.  Batting average is probably the best judge. As power develops later. 

And this is Diaz second tour with Bowie.  

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14 minutes ago, atomic said:

Walk rate doesn't mean you have high strike zone awareness.  Mark Reynolds and Chris Davis walked quite a bit in their careers but I consistently saw them take pitches right down the middle on one pitch and the next pitch swing at balls in the dirt.  

I don’t agree about Reynolds at all. He has/had excellent strike zone awareness.     His big problem is/was swinging and missing at pitches in the zone.      

His strike out looking percentage is 20.3% for his career compared to 24% major league average.    

His career rate of swinging at pitches outside the zone is 26.5% (league average this year is 31.2%). His career average of swinging at pitches inside the zone is 70.6% (league average 68.4%).    So he’s making good choices.    But his average of making contact with pitches in the zone is 76.1% compared to league average 84.9%.

Davis is a different story and it depends what part of his career you’re talking about.   

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