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MLBTR: OPT OUTS don't matter

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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/07/all-star-break-opt-out-updates.html

 

Because most big FA's kinda underperform  

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Jake Arrieta, RHP, Phillies: One year, $20MM (unless Phillies exercise two-year, $40MM option for 2021-22): Unless Arrieta completely flips the script hard down the stretch, there’s almost no way it’ll make sense on paper for him to opt out. His useful but uninspiring 2018 effort has given way to a messy 2019 campaign, with the problem areas of the past few seasons coming fully to roost. Arrieta is through 108 innings in 18 starts, so he remains a dependable rotation piece, but he’s coughing up 4.67 earned per nine with just 7.1 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9. While he is again drawing grounders on over half the balls put in play against him, he’s also allowing dingers on one in five flies. At 33 years of age, Arrieta seems to be on the career arc of James Shields moreso than that of Zack Greinke.

Yu Darvish, RHP, Cubs: Four years, $81MM: Darvish is consistently making starts, which is more than could be said last year, but the Cubs’ Arrieta replacement has not been anywhere close to good enough to spurn those remaining earnings. As he closes in on his 33rd birthday, Darvish is giving up free passes (4.5 BB/9) and long flies (1.86 per nine, 25.3% HR/FB) by the bucketful. There are some positive signs that leave the door open for a turnaround — his 93.9 mph average fastball and 12.2% swinging-strike rate sit right at his career means — but they aren’t going to change the contractual outcome here.

Jason Heyward, OF, Cubs: Four years, $86MM (assuming he makes 550 PAs): Heyward still hasn’t reached his 30th birthday and is in the midst of a bit of a renaissance at the plate. After two brutal campaigns, he crawled back to league-average production in 2018. Now, he’s slashing .266/.355/.457 (110 wRC+) with 14 home runs and a career-high 12.0% walk rate through 332 plate appearances in 2019. We haven’t seen this kind of pop from Heyward since way back in 2013. There are some limits to the good vibes, however. Heyward continues to grade well defensively in right field, but metrics have panned his work in center. And he has been abysmal against left-handed pitching, cobbling together a .188/.246/.281 slash without the platoon advantage. That profile isn’t going to command a payday that comes close to what Heyward already has in hand.

 

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2 hours ago, backwardsk said:

Strasburg has an opt out.  He could end up doing better than his remaining contract in the open market.

At 31, I can't see him getting more than 4/$100M, especially with a qualifying offer attached.

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8 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

At 31, I can't see him getting more than 4/$100M, especially with a qualifying offer attached.

Darvish got $126M at the same age in 2017 though he didn’t have a QO attached.  But they are not as expensive now, right?  

I don’t think he’ll opt out, unless he’s dead set on going to SD, but I think he could/should get $100M guaranteed in an open market without collusion.  Obviously an injury concern, but he’s a 4+ ish win pitcher.  I’m sure the Nationals hope he doesn’t opt out.

On another note, I see that he’s owed $100M and the last year is $45M.  But I wonder if part of that is a deferral that the Nats are still on the hook for even if he opts out.  Not exactly sure how that works.

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On 7/10/2019 at 8:32 AM, weams said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/07/all-star-break-opt-out-updates.html

 

Because most big FA's kinda underperform  

 

Did James Shields retire (couldn't find anything searching), he was not terrible last year 1.4 bWar.   Pretty sure I know an east coast black and orange team that could use some stability and innings eating.  

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1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

Aroldis Chapman will opt out per Rosenthal. Craig Calcaterra expands on it in a paywall free article.

Rotoworld has a little bit on it...

A player who is friendly with Aroldis Chapman told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that the left-hander is "one million percent" planning to opt out of his contract after this season.

Chapman would be forfeiting two years and $30 million, but he probably figures he can get another year or two tacked on at a similar average annual value. Heck, the Yankees might even be willing to do that via an extension before the opt-out deadline. The 31-year-old has posted a 2.45 ERA and 53/12 K/BB ratio in 36 2/3 innings this season and he's currently tied for the American League lead in saves with 25.

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This is actually why they do matter, no?  

If the player were seriously outperforming, then they would exercise.  In this case, where they are under-performing, they don't.  Options are almost always neutral-at-wort to beneficial to the holder of said option.

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