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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

67M is roughly the O's payroll this year, as compared to the Astros low water mark of 22M.  At least I think it is, hard to make heads or tails of the various payroll numbers and what all they count.

As for the 6-7M number I addressed that already by expressing my doubts he would cost so little. 

Subtract Davis and your already down to 44. The Astros are comparable because they weren’t strapped with Davis and Cobb. If you then subtract Cobb you around 29 million. So then it’s close

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25 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It doesn't look like 67M.

Alright your sarcastic answer made me do some research and now instead of having a meaningful conversation about this we can discuss the actual numbers and how your are not adding anything fact based to this discussion.

Lets start with how it was not $22 million in 2013, it was $35 (30th) in the AL.

That was precluded by a $55 million (29th) payroll in 2012.

And followed by $51 (29th) in 2014.

The Orioles payroll is $63 (29th).

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2014/

My conclusion is that you cherry picked the lowest year and on top of that you didnt account for where that payroll stood in relation to the rest of the league. Which supports my assertion that there is some inflation baked in there as the Orioles at 29th sit in the exact same position in payroll.

Additionally, my argument still stands.  After going back up to $51 in 2014 they increased their payroll $15-$25 M every subsequent year.

2015: $81 M

2016:  $103 M

2017:  $138

The orioles can and should start investing in the roster via free agency in meaningful ways starting this offseason.  The notion that the Orioles should for some reason eschew free agency for 3 years and hope their drafting/J2 signings make a team is as rediculous as them spending the last 10 years avoiding the J2 process.

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12 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Someone who loses a guy to injury or is seriously underperforming. I’m not looking to try and figure it out. But as I recall the Cubs middle infield is underperforming. That doesn’t mean they will trade for him. 

My point is that Villar is an upgrade over nearly no one. He's not going to be valued and he probably shouldn't be because he's not really an upgrade over anyone. Even the Cubs have Zobrist coming back who they can play at 2B if they decide to bench Russell. Or they'll trade for someone better. I'd be amazed if the return for Villar is better than what we got for Cashner and it probably shouldn't be. We can go back and forth all day, but the reality is there are probably 30+ current 2Bs I'd rank ahead of him. 

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3 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Then it will be a tough road.  I have commented previously that the Houston model had them increasing payroll $15 to $20 million a year through the rebuild.  A rebuild requires additions through all avenues.

Once they get down to 23 million, including Davis, I suspect they will start to add at the 40 man level. 

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5 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

My point is that Villar is an upgrade over nearly no one. He's not going to be valued and he probably shouldn't be because he's not really an upgrade over anyone. Even the Cubs have Zobrist coming back who they can play at 2B if they decide to bench Russell. Or they'll trade for someone better. I'd be amazed if the return for Villar is better than what we got for Cashner and it probably shouldn't be. We can go back and forth all day, but the reality is there are probably 30+ current 2Bs I'd rank ahead of him. 

They will get rid of his money to someone. 

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19 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Subtract Davis and your already down to 44. The Astros are comparable because they weren’t strapped with Davis and Cobb. If you then subtract Cobb you around 29 million. So then it’s close

But. You can't subtract Cobb and Davis.  You still have to pay them. Just because they are not rostered does not mean they don't count against revenues. 

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Just now, Camden_yardbird said:

Alright your sarcastic answer made me do some research and now instead of having a meaningful conversation about this we can discuss the actual numbers and how your are not adding anything fact based to this discussion.

Lets start with how it was not $22 million in 2013, it was $35 (30th) in the AL.

That was precluded by a $55 million (29th) payroll in 2012.

And followed by $51 (29th) in 2014.

The Orioles payroll is $63 (29th).

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2014/

My conclusion is that you cherry picked the lowest year and on top of that you didnt account for where that payroll stood in relation to the rest of the league. Which supports my assertion that there is some inflation baked in there as the Orioles at 29th sit in the exact same position in payroll.

Additionally, my argument still stands.  After going back up to $51 in 2014 they increased their payroll $15-$25 M every subsequent year.

2015: $81 M

2016:  $103 M

2017:  $138

I cherry picked the lowest year exactly because that was the lowest point once they got all the dead weight off the books.  To me that makes perfect sense.  As to your figure or my figure, I've recently mentioned that payroll estimates vary, I wasn't being duplicitous I was just using.

http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm

That site had the Astros at $22,062,600 in 2013.  If the number isn't accurate, sorry but it certainly wasn't intentional.

 

My point is that the O's payroll in a similar spot in the rebuild is significantly higher than what the Astros had, that is true even accounting for payroll inflation.  I think that the higher starting point means we should not expect the Orioles to follow the same payroll expansion the Astros had.

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Just now, weams said:

They will get rid of his money to someone. 

I agree, I'm just not expecting much of a return. Just dump his salary because Duquette should never have taken it on in the first place. The idea that we'd be able to flip a very flawed player like Villar for something of value was never made sense to me. 

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1 hour ago, mdbdotcom said:

Trade Villar for a Popsicle stick and a wrist band. He'll be available again in December after his new team non-tenders him, just in case we still want him.

I think they only serve ice cream. No Popsicles.

Image result for villar ice cream shoppe spain

 

Photo of Villar Helados - Sevilla, Spain

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52 minutes ago, weams said:

Once they get down to 23 million, including Davis, I suspect they will start to add at the 40 man level. 

In a perfect world I think you would like to do this, but you cant delay a rebuild because you have one bad contract.  I will give that perhaps we will see one more year of tear down, but I think that might be ownership sale driven more than reluctance to improve the roster.

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59 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

My point is that the O's payroll in a similar spot in the rebuild is significantly higher than what the Astros had, that is true even accounting for payroll inflation.  I think that the higher starting point means we should not expect the Orioles to follow the same payroll expansion the Astros had.

Everyone knows that the Astros weren't the only team in MLB history to do a rebuild, right? I know Elias worked there - but come on. They're two different teams, in two very different sized markets, with two different situations, with very different television deals, with a Chris Davis sized difference between them. The O's rebuild isn't going to perfectly mirror the Astros'.

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2 minutes ago, theocean said:

Everyone knows that the Astros weren't the only team in MLB history to do a rebuild, right? I know Elias worked there - but come on. They're two different teams, in two very different sized markets, with two different situations, with very different television deals, with a Chris Davis sized difference between them. The O's rebuild isn't going to perfectly mirror the Astros'.

Some folks clearly expect this to be Astroball 2.0.  Even after Elias said it wasn't.  Actually, to be more specific, they expect this to be an exact duplication of what they think the Astros' rebuild was.

 

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50 minutes ago, theocean said:

Everyone knows that the Astros weren't the only team in MLB history to do a rebuild, right? I know Elias worked there - but come on. They're two different teams, in two very different sized markets, with two different situations, with very different television deals, with a Chris Davis sized difference between them. The O's rebuild isn't going to perfectly mirror the Astros'.

IT Might. 

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11 minutes ago, weams said:

IT Might. 

I will anxiously await for our beloved Mike Wright to transform into the next JD Martinez, then. 

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2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

As for the 6-7M number I addressed that already by expressing my doubts he would cost so little. 

What do you think Villar would cost, assuming his current stats hold steady over the full season?

For what it’s worth, DJ LeMahieu’s arb years went $3.0, $4.8, $8.5 mm.   He was worth 2.4, 5.3, 2.8 rWAR in the seasons preceding each of those salaries.    Villar has made $2.55, 4.82 mm and been worth 0.1, 2.7 and on pace for 1.8 WAR.   Seems like his pay raise should be less than what LeMahieu got, but I agree north of $7 mm seems likely.    

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