LookinUp

It feels like we're about to have a lot of interesting arms to follow. I feel like we'll have some join the team this year, but will start to have a pretty stead feed, at least of good bullpen arms, starting next year.

Honestly, you can see the people who over react to small sample sizes from a mile away. Norfolk was hitting against inferior pitching in a hitter's environment. We didn't suddenly have 5 prospects capable of 1.200 OPSs, lol. Stowers is a perfect example. He's a nice prospect, but he's not really a tier 1 guy. I like all of Mayo/Kjerstad/Norbys bats better. Still, I think all 4 should still be roughly viewed as the same prospect they were 6 months ago, with perhaps a small tick up.

I posted in another thread a few days ago, but I definitely don't think the game is going to get rid of the max effort velo/spin pitches. The only way to mitigate the associated risk this is to let these guys throw less, both in individual games and in accumulated outings/year. It would be nice if we actually got some decent science on the risk windows. It feels very much to me like the ramp up part of the season is high-risk (see Bradish). If I were running a team, I'd be figuring out how to really ease my guys into the season through light offseason throwing programs and very controlled environments (e.g., 2 curves per session, 2 changes, etc.). Then, if they make it through the ramp up well, I wonder if there's a safer window of 2-3 months, during which guys are thriving but accumulating stress on their ligaments. Then as the season goes on, the injuries come again (see Bautista). But that's my theory. As a father of a pitcher and fan of many more, I would love some actual science on this.

I get bothered when politicians say they're humbled, like human beings get more humble when they have crowds cheering and saying how great they are. I figure it's in good taste to add a non-political point about politics to a non-religious thread about religion. Lol.

Might as well lock this thread, lol, or move it to Orioles Talk.

Perhaps you're describing the reason he didn't go until the 10th round and he made an adjustment after being drafted? This is total speculation on my part, but it would fit the pattern of a guy that nobody really cared about who quickly turned himself into a real prospect (which I hope is true).

I've been watching some of the best high school players around struggle with command. Others look off balance hitting or not on time. It's all about getting ramped up. I assume Basallo will look like the dude we know he is soon enough.

I just can't imagine a scenario where both of these things are true. Mayo will be up, likely by about the All Star break, IMO.

I'm up to two conspiracy theories/4D chess possibilities for Elias. 1. Contract negotiation: by holding out an extra year of control, Elias gained leverage. You could argue Tony Kemp was part of the bluff. What idiot would sign him for $1 million if he wasn't going to be around. Lol. 2. He IS manipulating service time, just not how you think: none of us are talking about Mayo or Kjerstad. By making the focus on Holliday, the entire conversation about these other two guys who are ready and tearing up AAA doesn't even exist. Then Elias promotes Holliday and suddenly the O's aren't viewed as an org that's manipulating service time, even though they're actively doing so right now. I doubt either is the reason, but they might be edge case benefits to whatever Elias' strategy was.

I know he won a gold glove and has hit league average, but does anyone expect either of those things moving forward? I think he's a solid fielder without plus range or arm, and likely a below league average hitter. He's a dime a dozen guy that is overvalued here, IMO. Certainly seems like a good dude who fits well, but I don't see anyone giving up value for him.

Honestly, they'll get a lottery ticket who either has an injury history, is about to have to be protected on a 40-man roster or has a tool that hasn't been developed for Urias. The other, more intriguing option, is someone who is a salary dump by another team but might have value in our bullpen.

Coby Mayo is breathing down his neck.

^^^This. I think they gave him extra money to make sure he wasn't claimed on waivers. They probably like something about his game and think they can squeeze some value out of it. Worst case is he gets waived and never added to a ML roster. Mid case is he gets waived and added to a roster during which time the other team will pick up the minimum salary with the O's on the hook for the remainder. BTW, Holliday's nickname should be whatever his buddies called him in high school, assuming it's PG.

The cynical side of me says the demotion was nothing but a negotiation tactic in extension talks.

I'm curious, why would a kid choose JuCo instead of just going into the draft out of high school? I understand JuCo as a stepping stone to a major program, but not as much to the pros. Did he go for a number that was too high and nobody bit?