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Stotle

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Stotle last won the day on July 18 2022

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About Stotle

  • Birthday 09/21/1979

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    Wisconsin
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    Attorney
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Rutschman
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Brooks

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  1. And the roster is going to look even bette three months from now, then nine months after that. Best Opening Day since 1997.
  2. Happy Opening Day, all! Go O's! Most excited I've been for a season since 1997...
  3. Teams that say they don't consider need when drafting are lying or bad at what they are doing. It's truly that simple.
  4. From what I have come to know about Keith over the last ~13 years (from speaking to him and others about him), I think he got tired about six/seven years ago with people throwing grades/comps/etc. back in his face -- especially when they were taking them out of context. So, for better or for worse, I think he is way more wishy-washy than he was in his earlier ESPN days. I get it and I do think the raw info is what's most interesting. But I also get why readers would expect you to be able to take a stand. Scouts hate when I hedge in my evals when we are talking players. Sometimes people just want a answer and not a bunch of nuance for you to figure out on your own.
  5. I think he's more physical than Pierre and probably not the pure hitter Pierre was. He's also likely to be a much better defender than Pierre was, so the comp doesn't really fit for me. This will probably sound weird but I think of Lofton as little broader in the waist and shoulders, but I do think there is similar power potential with Bradfield. I think RZNJ said it earlier -- 30ish doubles and 10+ HR per year (toss in 5-10 triples?), and you are really cooking with gas. I think if he hits 260-275 with enough pop to keep pitchers honest and work a 80-to-100-ish OBP delta year-to-year then he'll be on base frequently enough for his speed to become impact. I'd say Lofton is the 95% outcome (and it's tough for me to see Bradfield as a peak-year Lofton when Kenny was like a 6-7 win player and hitting like .315-.330) and a fair "hope" is less-than-peak defensive Kiermaier seasons (so like a 2-3 win player?). If that bat doesn't flop then there should be enough defensive value to get there, though from my looks I don't see quite the glove that Kiermaier has, though EBJ has the wheels to cover tons of ground and is a good finisher, Kiermaier is more athletic in my mind when it comes to making the truly incredible catch (or at least he was earlier in his career). That's a big range that hinges heavily on some pop coming. Also keep in mind D-value with shifts can be a tougher place to get BIG value bumps.
  6. I don't think his issue has been strength since maybe his freshman year. He just needs to square the ball up more regularly. If he had put up even a modest bump from sophomore year I think he is pretty easily a top 10 guy this year in the draft. But he regressed w/r/t pop and hitting with wood over the summer last year he just wasn't a hard contact guy. Too much contact on bad pitches or not finding the barrel frequently enough on balls he should handle. I think there is a lot of potential and I would expect Baltimore has a good feel for what they want to work on, given how much money they are investing. But, like I said, it's not a foregone conclusion the kid will just show up and hit. It he develops into a quality ML bat the O's dev staff and Bradfield should both get a pat on the back for putting in the work, because there is def work to be done.
  7. I think that is probably correct. That or they are VERY confident there are straightforward fixes to get him to a little better hard contact. But seems to me the value in the field and on the bases, they feel, is firm foundational value that justifies the risk profile in the pick.
  8. I saw him a bunch last summer between USACNT and then when he showed up on the Cape. This is what. I wrote up at the time (and I believe still to be the case with his profile): " One of the top talents in the 2023 draft class, Bradfield boasts top-of-the-scale speed that plays both on the bases and in the field. In addition to serving as a catalyst atop the Collegiate National Team batting order (.370 OBP), Bradfield flashed impressive defense in center field, where he also projects as a pro. The raw power is limited, but he can drive the gaps and run for days, giving him impact potential on offense, and he is a true game-changer on the bases. He can sometimes get a little too aggressive early, leading to contact on bad balls or forcing himself to hit from behind, but it’s a small nit so long as he keeps his K-rate where it’s been for the past two seasons (~14%) and finds his way onto the bases at a solid clip. He entered the summer on a short list of collegiate talents already viewed as likely first-rounders for next summer, and his time with the USA Collegiate National Team hasn’t altered that expectation. Even without traditional power for the top of the draft, he’s got impact potential and should have plenty of suitors in the early goings. If he can manifest a little more pop and prove an elite on-base talent next spring with the ‘Dores, he could cement himself as a top 10 selection." I would say he failed to show playable pop, continued to make contact (but not always quality contact), was a stud in center field and on the bases. This is about where he should have gone, all things equal. I think he is a better fit with Baltimore than in a lot of other places, for developmental reasons and based on team needs. A couple other notes worth mentioning: 1. This was his best collegiate year, w/r/t OBP-delta but his worst getting on other than walk/HBP. Biggest concern would be against top-end talent. I believe only three or four of his extra base hits came in series game 1s, or "Friday nights" (sometimes Thursday night for SEC play). 2. His post-season at the plate was not great. Taking his conference tourney and Regional games into account, he actually finished with a slash line of .275/.406/.425. Compare to the college bats selected ahead of him and right after him: 1:1 Crews -- .426/.567/.713 1:4 Langford -- .373/.498/.784 1:6 Wilson -- .411/.461/.635 1:11 Schanuel -- .444/.612/.864 1:12 Troy -- .392/.476/.696 1:13 Shaw -- .341/.445/.697 1:14 Teel -- .407/.475/.655 1:15 Gonzalez -- .327/.435/.564 1:17 Bradfield -- .275/.406/.425 1:18 Wilken -- .345/.506/.807 1:19 Taylor -- .308/.430/.631 I think there is value to work with on the offensive side, the import of stolen bases with rule changes (for example) and lack of strikeouts. But the power and quality contact need to bump up, and it's not a small deal. I'm sure Baltimore already knows what they are going to work on. As noted over the years, it isn't just strike zone command. Big League arms will simply challenge you to hit, and not nibble, if you can't do damage. That tends to drive down walk rates (and drive up strikeout rates b/c hitters are more often hitting from behind). He doesn't need to slug, but he will need to make quality contact and get on base and it's not a foregone conclusion that happens. 3. Some already mentioned, but this is a nice indicator that Baltimore really believes in its player value metrics that it is relying upon, and that A) it significantly takes into account advanced data regarding defense and base running and B) they are comfortable enough with it to draft college talents with these things taken into account, even if the rest of the traditional offensive profile isn't there. If Bradfield is a hit and he becomes a solid everyday guy, that's another big feather in the cap of the Orioles acquisition side of the front of the office. 4. As a fun anecdote, when driving down to Florida for spring break last year (2022) we stopped in Nashville and a buddy of mine and me took my oldest (then 11yo) to Vandy for the Friday night game against Florida. It was what you'd expect from two future orioles. 1st inning Fabian hit a homer into the back two rows of the left field bleachers, then struck out twice and singled to left on a hard hit ball. Bradfield went SO, soft groundout, two soft fly outs, then in the ninth inning snuck one through the right side. Stole second, advanced to third on an error, then scored the game winning run on a Bulger single. Bradfield also made two great catches to the gaps. Hope everyone is well; go O's.
  9. The coolest scouts today are in their 40s-to-early-50s and are exactly that -- down to earth baseball guys that have experience under the "old ways" but are really sharp and have learned the data side of things. At least on the amateur side, a lot of the younger scouts have the "too cool for school" way of looking at things and a lot of the older guys (fewer and fewer as they get let go or move on themselves) are bitter about not being able to do things the way they have for the past 30 years. EDIT -- I think Jennings is a bit older but still fits this bill from what I have heard about him.
  10. All I will say is the days are over of me considering a FO "successful" for a couple playoff appearances followed by a win total of 75 (2017) and recognition that a complete tear down and rebuild is needed. It's great that once the Orioles decided they were going to burn the future to make some playoff runs that they did it well enough to have a few years of success in a row. But I'd gladly give back those playoff years to be in a position to compete as a functioning and competent organization in 2018, rather than 2022. Duquette is not an idiot. He was fine executing a plan. I don't like that Baltimore settled on that course as "the plan".
  11. I agree with much of what you're saying. I think Buck was the right guy for what the org was doing. I also think it's incumbent on a general manager to speak truth to power regarding likelihood of competing. If you are going to push in the way Baltimore did I hope it was done noting it was likely to have a hugely negative impact on sustainability. I think yearning for a World Series is understandable, but not at the expense of being a competently functioning organization. Chasing lightening in a bottle isn't interesting to me -- not as a fan and not from an analysts/consulting standpoint. Build an org that is always innovating and at the forefront and give me a decade of 81-93 win seasons and I'll take that over five years of being among the worst team's in baseball, two of 81-93, and three of 87-95.
  12. Have to say I agree Baltimore was never really close to winning a WS and to this day I am sad the O's abandoned continuing to build up the org for a few years of success. It gutted the system, involved trading depth guys away for short term stuff and led to disasters link the Chris Davis extension. I get why some are fans of Duquette's, but to me it was the epitome of "get to the playoffs and see if you can get hot/lucky." There was never any threat Baltimore was on track to be a long-term power during those years. Under Elias, there is at least a foundation being built. Just too bad it's at a time when so many other teams are doing similar. Getting a competitive advantage in the division is not going to be easy.
  13. I think you can also argue player dev was not great with that group. There should have been more impact from the late-00s/early-10s group of prospects. Some of that is on the players (like a certain 1rd arm) but a lot is on the org for not having a unified approach to developing its players and understanding the right things to emphasize. Hindsight, of course.
  14. Henderson was a favorite of mine his draft year (he was actually the player I wrote up most highly from the Under Armor All-America Game that year at Wrigley, though he obviously wasn't the highest rated overall in that class for me when draft day came). Age in and of itself doesn't earn you points, but age with the right associated characteristics can definitely be a strong indicator the player is a strong helium candidate. I don't know it's reasonable to expect Henderson to go in the Top 10 in 2019, but there were definitely teams on him in the first round depending on who else was available. There were also folks lighter on Witt due to age, but he was so physically mature and his physical tools were strong enough that he wasn't dependent on any big jumps to become a MLB contributor.
  15. You probably have better sources on here who have been following the O's system more closely (including Tony himself). I may be digging back into MiLB prospect coverage this year -- if I do I'll definitely be by to discuss O's stuff with all the folks here. It's always a good place for good O's convos.
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