Filmstudy

His power is the real thing, even though it may be marginalized by OPACY to some degree. I am loving the gap and off-field power to date. Westburg's success is part of the reason I really want Norby to get a shot. Norby in 167 AAA games: .296/.363/.504/.867 over ages 22-24 Westburg in 158 AAA games: .283/.366/.533/.899 over ages 23-24 I'm aware Westburg is (especially with information we have now) the better defensive prospect, which makes a lot of difference, but with the organization short on RHBs who can actually hit, Norby would more likely than not be a nice role player/4th OF/emergency IF/PH at a min. His L/R splits are not much different over the last 3 years, which I would take as a good thing. He can relieve LHB of big platoon disadvantages and stay in the game with minimal matchup risk if that holds at the MLB level.

The illness and reported weight loss have increased the chance he gets sent down from my perspective. Let's review: 1. Hays is struggling like we haven't seen since Chris Davis 2. There is no easy way to get him playing time vs any RHP when Cowser, Mullins, Santander, O'Hearn, Mounty, and Rutschman are all hitting 3. The Orioles desperately need his bat to come to life vs LHP but he is a DP waiting to happen 4. That leaves playing time as a defensive replacement and even with the expanded LF at OPACY, that's a modest defensive context and a large offensive responsibility relative to other players in the league Norby may struggle when he is first called up, but he would give the club what it needs as a viable RHB with some positional versatility for 2 weeks or longer if required and service time can't be a consideration any more for Connor. That may be long enough to get Hays back on track. I still think the Orioles may show undue loyalty to Hays as a player-relations move, but that also sends a terrible message to the Norfolk 4 who have to be wondering what they need to do. I'd now handicap it as 15-25% that he gets sent down by 5/15.

How about a path to the majors for each of the 4 potential promotees: Norby: Priority for his call up because 1) service time is not an issue at his age, 2) He's RHB and the Orioles need more balance that way, 3) He's proven at AAA as a hitter, 4) he has flexibility to play multiple spots (probably all at a sub-par level), and 5) I think they'd do the least damage by sticking him in a platoon role where he plays twice a week and otherwise just PHs. I'd call up Norby if Hays is hurt or if the club decides Hays needs time at AAA to work out his problems when the parent club can't afford to bench a better hitter. Kjerstad: Recalled in case of an injury to Cowser, Santander, O'Hearn, or Mullins in which case he'd move into a DH/RF role. He would be in the show for the majority of other MLB teams, but not here. Next year, he must start the season with the team and I expect no QO for Santander to make room. O'Hearn will probably still be in Baltimore with the club option unless he regresses as a hitter, but plate discipline had improved YoY, so I expect him to stay. Mullins will be 30 and in his final Arb year in 2025 which probably means he has little trade value, but if injuries around the league in CF generate value for him, the Orioles should probably be willing to sell at the deadline, even if he's still hitting like he is now. Stowers: Recalled in case of an injury to 2 of Cowser, Santander, O'Hearn, Mullins. It's a long shot, but I don't see another way. Making his situation more dire is the imbalance of LH bats producing in the lineup. I expect they'll trade him by the end of this season if a spot does not develop. Mayo: I think he waits until 2025, but the way he gets to the show this season is an injury to Mountcastle. I don't see another path and the Orioles would certainly need his bat if Mounty went down. Service time and development are both a concern for Mayo right now and he (like many others) needs to cut his K rat and play better defense.

You're probably right that he'd get more PAs and Hyde would eschew any strict platooning, even if splits are big and that would negatively impact my projection. Incredibly, .800 OPS for the rest of the season (at the same rate of play he's had to date) would bring him in very close to .862 for the season. One big thing that has changed since the days of Lowenstein/Roenicke is the number of roster spots for hitters and pitchers. In 1980, that was approximately 15 position players and 10 pitchers. Now it's 13 and 13. The change makes straight platooning far more difficult. As a point of reference, John Lowenstein in 1982 had only 382 PAs despite being the most productive hitter in baseball on a per AB or PA basis with a 1.071 OPS and 194 OPS+.

I'd be happy to reproject this every 2 weeks, but one assumption I'm making is that there is some regression to his platoon history. For that reason, I don't think it's nearly as simple as 500/402 times the numbers I posted because his marginal PAs would be disproportionately vs LHP which would be very likely to hurt his rate stats. Also need to project for some injury risk if we're talking O/U numbers. If you were projecting OBJ's receiving yards last year that was a central assumption, but even a young ballplayer needs that.

I'll put an estimate in on Cowser now for the full season: AB: 402 H: 110 Avg: .274 2B: 29 3B: 1 HR: 21 RBI: 82 BB + HBP: 51 OBP: .355 SLG: .507 OPS: .862 I don't think he will fully take an everyday role for the 2024 Orioles, which should help his rate stats and reduce his aggregate stats a little, but the HR on Sunday is going to go a long way to keeping him in the lineup full time. The projection I'm least certain taking the over is the BB+HBP total, which draws a lot on his 2023 and MilB patience. I'm not sure if this will be good enough to get him the ROY, but he should be in the discussion. These stats are very similar to what Casas posted last season in a much friendlier hitter's environment.

Maureen and I went to the game on Friday night and noticed what must be a programming error in the scoreboard statistics. Specifically, the lineup area and posted stats for each hitter were correctly adding ABs as they occurred but double counting hits. For example, Cowser started the game 11/24 (.458). After going 2 for 2, his batting average was posted at .577 in the lineup column (15/26) indicating he had gone 4 for 2 on the night. The same was happening for the Brewers. We didn't go to Saturday's game, so it may already have been fixed. If one wanted to point this error out to the Orioles, who might be the point of contact?

There is a line that was ascribed to Gollum, but I'm not sure if it was part of the Books, Movies, or a BBC radio reenactment I've heard which is one of my favorite of his: "Silly Hobbits don't know how long 'never' is." I think probabilistically, so please handicap it for me from your perspective. Does never in this case mean 0%? Or does it mean more like I think that it's between a 5% and 15% chance to occur that requires multiple overlapping circumstances but is still a meaningful possibility?

I think May 1 is a reasonable deadline for Hays to start hitting or be sent to AAA. If he turns in an OPS of .550 or less for the rest of the month, I think it will be entirely reasonable to pull the trigger. He hit a ball really well tonight, which is a good sign, but his relatively limited number of hard-hit balls also need to start turning into production. One other benefit of such a move is that it sends an encouraging message to the guys at AAA who are rotting on the vine with lots of AAA experience (Kjerstad, Stowers, Norby, but not yet Mayo). Sending Hays down and bringing Norby up as the 4th outfielder/extra infielder for 2-4 weeks could give Hays time to get back in the groove and the Orioles a chance to see Norby in a shot vs ML pitching. It would also show the minor leaguers that they are not all in a dead-end situation and the Orioles will make timely changes in a potential championship season. If Norby does hit at the big league level and Hays finds his way at AAA, then you can recall Hays and DFA either Urias or Mateo.

The Cowser hit-and-run play with a 2-0 count had me screaming at the TV. If it WAS truly a H&R, it's a bad play because it creates a DP opportunity for a runner who was ready to eat Jansen alive with a huge lead.

Handicapping this right now (and assuming the information about the remaining option is correct), I'd say the odds of Hays being sent to the minors is between 5 and 15%, so far from impossible. To take a shot at what it might take, I'd say Cowser continuing to hit and another 2 or 3 for 20 from Hays ought to do it. Then Hays would not be able to displace Cowser and Elias could fairly say the only way to get him right is by playing every day at AAA. Remember, this is a team that sent the AL WHIP leader to the minors last year to get right. If Hays is sent down, I think Norby will be the callup to get another RH stick in a LH lineup. His service time is not a concern at this point (as it is with Mayo) and I don't see what more he has to prove at AAA.

Let's hope that Cowser's status as an established player gets him lots of rope if he has a brief, half-season slump. Seriously, I assume Hays will start tomorrow vs the lefty since it's the only 1 the Orioles will face for a while. If he simply enters for Cowser when a LHP is inserted and starts vs LHP, he'll get more ABs than Colton. However, we are at the point where Cowser deserves some test ABs and starts vs LHP and not just the RHP platoon role. Absolutely love Cowser's inside-out approach and I think we've seen that when Mountcastle is at his best he hits a mess of balls to RF.

I typically watch the game delayed so I can FF through commercials, but Austin Hays ABs have become fast forward TV. He is completely lost at the plate and he can't seem to find the ball vs LHP or RHP. The Orioles need him to hit LHP with so many weak bats vs Southpaws. Right now the Orioles are depending on just a handful of players vs LHP: Hit LHP well: Mountcastle, Rutschman, Santander, Mateo (Rutschman and Mateo are the only ones with an OBP over .621 coming into Sunday) The rest of the lineup: Hays can't hit anyone Hicks led the team in OPS vs LHP last season but he is gone. Gunnar has been terrible vs LHP for 2023-24 (did not look at '22) As a team, the Orioles are hitting .188/.279/.250/.529 vs LHP through 112 PAs which is NOT nothing As the season moves on, the Orioles will add more LHB to this lineup when some of Holliday, Kjerstad, and Stowers are promoted. This is a team that needs another bat that mashes LHP to protect all of the talented LHH. If this were Strat-O-Matic, those guys are literally a dime a dozen. Working with the constraints the Oriole have, Norby might be the best option since I think we're past the point of being concerned about service time.

Cowser is in the lineup vs a RHP the day after an off day. I think this is a good sign the Orioles may be moving to a platoon now. Of course the Pirates are scheduled to start LHP the next 2 days, so we probably won't know for a while and this may also have influenced the decision to start Cowser today.

How about Wandisson Charles?