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DrungoHazewood

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DrungoHazewood last won the day on October 28 2022

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About DrungoHazewood

  • Birthday 06/19/1971

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    SoMd
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  • Interests
    Nate, Sam, Baseball, Soccer, Virginia Tech sports, Hiking, Cooking, Photography, Mad treks to the far corners of the globe
  • Occupation
    Electronics Engineer/Division Director
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Gunnar Henderson
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Doug DeCinces

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  1. Everyone knows that one's long-term MLB performance stabilizes in samples of two or three spring training PAs. Sometimes you don't even need that if he doesn't have a good baseball face or name, or if the ball's not coming out of his hand well. Enrique Bradfield Jr. is barely more confidence-inspiring than Hayden Penn. Oh well, maybe he'll be a sweetener in a deadline deal one day.
  2. From the Fangraphs article you can see that even the numbers that are quickest to have meaning are in numbers of reps you rarely get in spring training. So, combined with varying levels of competition and other factors, no I wouldn't put any meaning in them. Except, perhaps, as in indicator of health in certain cases.
  3. https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/ Edit: I see you already found this. Also, remember these are the points where the signal becomes more meaningful than the noise, and is using regular season PAs.
  4. The deepest Mantle family secret: Mickey had an identical twin they kept locked in the tornado cellar as a backup. They pulled out Rickey Mantle to go school in Mickey's place whilst he was barnstorming.
  5. Yes, in 1939 Mickey Mantle was playing alongside 34-year-old barnstormers at the age of eight in a tiny village on Virginia's Eastern Shore just to get the mythical developmental advantage of the cool, moist sea air, while having a doppelganger attend grade school in Commerce, Oklahoma. 100% true.
  6. It's like the old saying goes, you should use stats like a drunk uses a lamppost. For support, not illumination. It's whatever you need to make your point.
  7. It's not very well known, but the whole reason Mickey Mantle was good was the 11 years he spent secretly playing for a barnstorming team based out of Cape Charles, Virginia from ages 8-19.
  8. Just measure it. Go to Google maps, find a baseball park, and measure from normal third positioning and the normal short. Third to first is something like 135 feet, short is something like 125 feet. The outfield grass at deepest short is something like 145', while the third base line/grass mark is about 155'. Sure, you can find places a third baseman needs to cover that are closer than some places a shortstop needs to cover. But I think it's clear an average throw from third is longer than an average throw from short.
  9. Also the "hoarding cash" part implies that the team has a vault somewhere that's labeled "2024-2029 payroll" and they just throw all the profits in there, ready to take out and spend on free agents. The much more likely case is that the profits are used or distributed to the ownership group as they come in. There is no $500m account ready to fund future signings beyond this year's revenues. Unless someone can find me strong evidence to the contrary I'll continue to believe that the 2024 Orioles' payroll ceiling is based on the projected revenues of the 2024 Orioles.
  10. So, maybe a little like Top Golf, but I guess you get to go down to the "holes" on the field to putt? Apparently you're limited to sand wedge through 8 iron. When I saw the title my first thought was home plate to CF is reachable with a 9-iron, and a PGA pro could drive a ball over the warehouse from anywhere in the upper deck. The light rail station on the other side of the warehouse is a little over 200 yards from home. I might be able to hit the Hilton that looms over LF with a good drive from the plate.
  11. I don't see how it can hurt. At the very least it builds connections to the Oriole teams of the past. Most players are fans, too, and many of the current guys probably grew up watching guys like JJ Hardy, even if most of them were not Orioles fans. It's probably cool to be around players like that and to hear stories and maybe even get a few pointers. I guess it could be counter-productive if the old guys were bitter, or the kind of person who rants about how the game has gone downhill with all this newfangled 4-inning-starter, nine relief pitchers a game, stat nerd mumbo jumbo... but I seriously doubt that's the kind of guy the team will bring in.
  12. I think that's a good data point, but it's just one. Mountcastle has been in the majors for 1638 PAs, he's 27, and prior to 2023 he had a .774 OPS, in 2023 he had a .779 OPS. Fangraphs lists a bunch of projections, all of them have Mountcastle between .758 and .789. They're just projections, but nobody is betting on a big breakout. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but I don't know if it's likely. How well do unexpected 2nd half splits actually stick? In 2022 Nathaniel Lowe had a .964 OPS 2nd half, and a .771 coming into the season. In 2023 he had a .775. Eloy Jimenez had a .948, an .822 coming in, and a .758 in '23. Trayce Thompson had a .947, coming off a .688 career, and then a .579 '23. Joey Menses had a .930 as a 2nd half '22 rookie, then a .722 in '23. Coming into '22 Bo Bichette had an .850, 2nd half of '22 he had a .921, then an .814 in '23. Jake Fraley had a .656 going into '22, a .903 2nd half of '22, and a .783 in '23. Vinnie Pasquantino had an .899 as a late '22 rookie, then a .762 in '23. I'm sure you could find counter-examples, but for the most part the plexiglass principle applies. Or you could call it the SI jinx. Players who play unexpectedly well (and often are recognized for that with things like magazine covers) tend to regress to career marks. "Tend to" doesn't mean that's destiny, but I don't know that I'd count on Mountcastle being a top-10 offensive player in '24.
  13. Is it really wise to just assume that the US won't go into an extended deflationary period like we saw between the War of 1812 and the Civil War? Sure, that's essentially unheard of since then, but maybe Elias knows things we don't. There's strong indications he's part of the Illuminati.
  14. Adrian Gonzalez went 1/1 in 2000, and before he made his debut the Marlins traded him to Texas as partial payment for Ugueth Urbina. That should have been a huge win for the Rangers, but they turned around a couple years later before Gonzalez was established and traded him for a washed-up Adam Eaton and 90 innings of Akinori Otsuka. I almost have to think there's some kind of backstory there. Not often you have a #1 overall pick who ended up with a heck of a career, but was traded twice before he's established for what turned out to be almost nothing in both cases.
  15. Sign him and then cut him when the inevitable media circus and his inability to not publicly say dumb things happens? Then why sign him at all. Also, his real, actual MLB ERA, mostly from his 20s, is 3.79. I don't see any reasonable way to say "he probably is at least a 3.50 ERA pitcher". You know how many full seasons he's had with an ERA+ of 130 or better? One. In 2020 he had a great 73 innings. In 2018 he finished 6th in the Cy Young. In '21 he was really good for 107 innings. Besides that? Five years of mid-4.00s ERAs and 175-200 innings. Fangraphs lists four different 2024 projections for Bauer, with ERAs between 3.93 and 4.63. Last year he had a 114 ERA+ in a AAAA league.
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