Any time you acquire a pitcher, you run a risk that he'll become injured, ineffective, or both, so that you might be committing to pay him for some period of low, or zero, or even negative value. Obviously, the longer the contract you inherit or enter into, the greater the risk that will happen. The Orioles and other teams presumably have data that quantify that risk for each pitcher based on his history, age, throwing motion, pitch arsenal, etc. If the risk is high for Cease, and that wouldn't surprise me, maybe he has never been the right guy. But that risk will always be there. If you want to acquire an established pitcher, that's part of the package.
I'm convinced that the Orioles' chances of qualifying for and advancing in the postseason in 2024 would be increased substantially by the addition of an upgrade to the so-far-four-member starting staff. That will require spending (in dollars or prospects) and taking on risk sooner or later. Since July, it's felt like "later" to me. I understand that some will disagree, and that they may turn out to be right. I also understand that the decisions to stand pat have been dictated by John Angelos -- doesn't matter to me since I don't know and won't know who is playing what roles in these decisions.