Sports Guy

Fangraphs WAR. Dont feel like hearing CoC cry about not asking what WAR are we talking because you didn’t put the little letter in front of it. (Even though fWAR is the only one I discuss)

Im Not sure there is a carryover effect either but I also think it’s fair to say, this isn’t just a few week issue either.

Correct. OH is largely more intelligent than twitter but there is still the same the sky is falling mentality here and the same over the top reaction when things are going well. My surprise is that this site is more on the pessimistic side. I think basically a 50/50 split is more representative of around where I thought it would be. Right now, it’s 52/48 under with way more votes, so it’s really not much different.

Have the same poll up on twitter. So far, with 79 votes, it’s 51% under , 49% over. So, OH i more pessimistic so far. Surprising result to me.

Yep. I think that’s the best way to look at it. This slump is a little more prolonged overall though, that’s the only real issue. But at the end of the day, unless you think his skills have completely eroded, this should be looked at as you state.

The first half of August last year was propped up by a 4 hit game and a 2 hit game where he had a double and homer. The rest of that stretch of games he was awful and even including those games, in a sampling of 48 PA from Aug 1-16, he had a 244 BA to go along with a sub 300 OBP. His slugging was 422 but again, that was really from those 2 games. His wRC+ was 91. From Sept 13 through the end of the season, his slash line was 160/250/280. That was over 58 PA. Now, that is definitely manipulating numbers. That being said, despite that excellent 90 at bat stretch that he had plus the other 4 hit and 2 hit game in the first half of August, his OPS is still barely over 600 over a substantial 300+ PA stretch. Considering how good that stretch + those games were, for his OPS to be that, shows you how bad he was the other 71% of the time. Thats pretty brutal baseball. Now, I think he will be fine and he will end up around where we expect him to be but this isn’t just a this year thing. He has largely not been good for about 71% of the time over the last 3.5 months. Like I said, he has basically been Jorge Mateo for half a season but his defense isn’t as good and he doesn’t have that speed. And he has high end talent knocking down the door right behind him so he better start getting hot soon or may really find himself on thin ice.

He had a nice stretch of 90 PA from Aug 16 through Sept 12 of last year. Outside of that stretch, he has been awful. Since July 1 of last year, Hays has 313 PA. His slash line is 206/268/339/607. That is despite a 943 OPS in those aforementioned 90 PA. Essentially, he has been Jorge Mateo for half a season worth of at bats. So yea, he has largely been terrible for the last 3.5 months of play. He was good for less than a 1/3 of that time.

That’s interesting. My expectation was a 3.5-4 WAR type season. I still think he gets close to that.

For those voting under, would you have voted under had I asked this question the day they brought him up?

Hays has largely been awful (not mediocre) since July 1 of last year.

She’s absolutely awful.

Clearly he just sucks.

That’s awful. He got a little more than I would have given him but he was high on my list.

I’m setting the O/U at 2.9 fWAR for 2024. Over or under?

No doubt…I think expecting a 600 OPS is realistic early on. A sub 200 OPS is pretty awful. Now, I don’t really care and i would still send him up there everyday. Im just pointing out that you mentioned people having too high of expectations but people should have expected more than 1-25 with 14 Ks. The sample is too small for anything to matter but I don’t think expecting like than what he has done is asking for too much.