BohKnowsBmore

Well, I think it's fully dependent on fielder positioning at that point. There are a bunch of gappers and line drives that have no chance of being caught in a given situation that will have xAVG of .800 or .900 because in other situations fielders are positioned in a way that catches that given launch angle/direction/exit velocity combination.

You could even say Kimbrel-like His career K/9 is 14.2, and he's had multiple seasons at or above that mark for a whole season. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kimbrcr01.shtml

1) he wasn’t in the starting lineup yesterday (he actually didn’t get in the game at all) 2) in the one game he’s played, he’s 1/3 with a double and a walk (good for a 1.167 OPS)

He had 15 in 450 PA last season, which is a clean 20/600PA pace

Weird timing to post this.

Nevin is .711 per Zips projections and is .798 by historical performance vs. LHP

I'm pretty happy we ended up with Mayo as a result of that underslot selection. And I wouldn't throw in the towel on Willems yet, he tore it up at Delmarva prior to scuffling at Aberdeen last year... let's see how he adjusts (esp. since he was -2.3 average age for that league).

Not even close to worst case scenario. Of the 55 #17 picks in the MLB draft made between 1965 and 2019, more than half (28) either had negative career WAR (11) or didn't make the Show at all (17). So could indeed be much worse than Hamilton's run with the Reds.

I take your point on the XBH part, but what's concerning about .291?

The guy's had 10 ST PAs... He had a .473 OBP / .803 OPS across three levels of MiLB last year. More impressive, in his 110 PA he reached base safely 49 times (hence the .473 OBP) and had 25 steals with 2 CS, so he wound up with a SB more than half the times he reached base, which is absurd. If you convert his SBs into doubles, reducing singles then BB for the overflow (as he had 25 SB compared to 20 singles) and deduct for CS), his OPS becomes an implied 1.106 for 2023 MiLB season.

FWIW, Urias is ~3.75 rWAR per 600 PA over his career (1164 PA)

I don't think this ownership group has much risk in the way of their financing not coming through or some such.