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Jonesy10

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Jonesy10 last won the day on November 27 2012

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  1. Their offense is still brutal. And guys like Greene, McCarthy, Phelps, and Capuano aren't very good. Both the Jays and Yankees are nothing but flys on the wall as long as the Orioles keep playing well. The Yankees still have to go 30-18 in the last 48 games to reach 90 wins. They haven't been above 6 games over .500 the whole season so I seriously doubt they go 12 over the rest of the way. With an O's win tonight the Jays would have to go 29-17 the rest of the way to reach 90 wins. The O's would have to go 25-23. The Orioles could easily finish with 93-95 wins which would make it nearly impossible for either of those teams to catch them. Just gotta keep playing well. 90 wins should all but guarantee the division. With a win tonight the O's are on pace for 92. They're the best team in the division and just need to play well to win the division.
  2. I didn't say anything about Oakland. Porcello likely won't start in the playoffs. Smyly was very effective as a reliever last season and in limited action this season. Jackson was their everyday CF'er and rightfully so.
  3. I'm not knocking on those trades for a TOR starter but it seems like everyone is now predicting a OAK-DET ALCS. Detroit seems to be the playoff opponent for the O's (if of course they make it). I just think it's an interesting topic. How much better did they really get this season and going into the playoffs? They'll gain about a win, maybe less, the rest of the season. The playoffs are really interesting though with Detroit. They downgrade from Jackson to Davis, they downgrade in the bullpen from an already weak pen (Smyly would have moved to the pen where is he awesome), and Rick Porcello is now no longer going to be starting in the playoffs (3rd best SP behind Scherzer and Sanchez in WAR, 2nd most IP/start, lowest ERA, 2nd lowest WHIP...all these rankings being without Price). So looking at a potential BAL/DET ALDS matchup I don't think that much has changed. They significantly down grade their weak spot (bullpen) and lineup while putting Price in the mix while losing a very good pitcher from their postseason rotation (Porcello). Obviously Price is still a pretty big upgrade over Porcello in a postseason matchup but is it worth downgrading the other areas? Honestly, they may have been a pretty equal team heading into the post season just trading for the guy we got (Miller), letting Porcello start, keeping Jackson, and moving Smyly into the bullpen which would make it a very formidable pen (Miller, Smyly, Soria, Albuquerque, Nathan). I think it's just a pretty interesting topic and I would still take my chances in a series against Detroit.
  4. Well I am not sure you know who Bundy and Rodriguez are. Bundy was one of the top pitching prospects in the game before he got inured and is still a very highly rated prospect. Rodriguez isn't in the top 100 anymore. Bundy probably has a much higher ceiling and floor. As for Samardzija, he has been very good this season. But he's still only been worth 2.5 WAR. Miller has been worth 1.4 WAR in 100 less innings. Meanwhile, Matusz has a -0.1 WAR. That's a huge upgrade. I'm not knocking Samardzija, but we may have had to trade Bundy and EdRod for him. He has a worse FIP and xFIP than Ian Kennedy who many didn't think was an upgrade to our staff at all. I like what the O's did and I'm extremely happy to have Bundy and Harvey still. I think if they were going to trade one of them, I would want to see someone better than Samardzija coming back.
  5. Miller is at 1.4 WAR right now. Price is at 3.9. If Miller pitches 25 innings he could be worth 0.7-0.8 WAR. Even if Price continues pitching extremely well and averaging 7 IP per start, he would likely accumulate 1.5-1.8 WAR. Lester could be closer to 2.0-2.5. That's not taking into account who these players are replacing. There's a very good chance that Miller and Price have equal value in terms of WAR added the rest of the season (Miller replacing Matusz, Price replacing Smyly/Davis replacing Jackson). Obviously Price is under contract for next season though while Miller is a FA. Just thought it was an interesting way to look at it. The Orioles got a fairly significant upgrade for the rest of the season. Getting a TOR starter would have been nice but this was still a deal that helps the team tremendously.
  6. Trading Bundy for a 2 month rental is different than trading EdRod for a 2 month rental. Samardzija also had an ERA well above 4 last season. He's not really an ace. He's a lot like Ian Kennedy who some didn't even think was an upgrade.
  7. 1. KRod was nowhere near as good as Miller. Miller has been worth 1.4 WAR. KRod was worth 0.3 WAR all of last season. So not even close. 2. The Orioles were not in first place with a 2.5 game lead when they traded for KRod, and didn't need a righty reliever nearly as much as they needed a lefty reliever now. 3. Miller is coming from the AL East. He can pitch in this division. 4. Pretty sure Miller has the highest WAR out of any of our pitchers now. He's really good. KRod was mediocre.
  8. No. Miller has been worth .2 less WAR than Uehara, in 6 less innings. With much better FIP and xFIP. Miller also fills more of a need. And everybody would have been jumping for joy if it was Erod for Uehara. This was a fantastic acquisition.
  9. Tampa is the only team in the division where the injury troubles are bad and not a surprise. Boston's only real loss is Victorino, who missed 40 games last season and 30 two years ago and is getting up there in age. I don't think its a major surprise he is injured, it's more of a surprise the Red Sox lost Ellsbury and did nothing else to add to the outfield. Then they have Middlebrooks, who has been awful since his rookie season and may have actually been addition by subtraction (giving Holt playing time who has been very good). And then Lavarnway, who was their 3rd string catcher. Nothing unexpected happened, their team simply hasn't played good. Teixiera and Pineda getting injured is no surprised. Beltran was also a risk. Other than that their major injuries include Sabathia (once again, OLD, weight problem, not very good anyway), Cervelli (back up catcher), and Nova (not very good). They're lucky guys like Jeter, Roberts, Ellsbury and the rest of their aging players didn't get injured. Maybe nobody saw 4/5 of their starting rotation going down, but I don't think the number of games lost is remotely surprising considering their roster, if anything it could be higher. Losing Tanaka is killer, but that just occurred. The Yankees problem hasn't really been injuries. Both their offense and SP just isn't good. That is true with their original rotation. Sabathia and Nova were awful and Kuroda isn't the same. Now, without Tanaka, they're just awful. For the Jays their only major injuries have been an awful 2B and a SP made of glass. Not much lost with Izturis and almost expected with Morrow. They have most likely been the luckiest team in the league by far with players vastly over performing anyhow. The Rays have been unlucky but I think you could see this coming with Victorino and NY and TOR's injuries. It's better not to have an average age near 35 and not to rely on players that constantly get injured.
  10. Pearce is a better 2 hole hitter. Walks more, higher average, works counts better, faster... Manny can stay where he is, or switch spots with Hardy.
  11. Whose? LA? Wilson just went on the DL as well.
  12. Anything can happen in a given series though. The best team doesn't always win, it's the team that plays the best. Also, the Angels are not nearly as good as their record indicates. They are a whopping a 33-11 against teams under .500. They struggle mightily against any team that isn't bad. The O's could easily beat any team in the league in a series with their stellar bullpen, quick strike (and sometimes incredible) offense, and fantastic defense. Lets not forget either that the O's SP are underperforming pretty badly and they're still 49-41. Tillman, Jimenez, and Gonzo (our top 3 going into the season) all have significantly higher ERA's in 2014 than in 2013. Chen is also higher. The only one pitching as expected or better is Norris, our #5 going into the season. Call me crazy but I think the O's finish with 92-95 wins and go into the postseason as a dark horse behind Oakland and Detroit.
  13. Hurts losing this one though because it's a 4 game series. Just 14-12 in that span.
  14. HUGE win. Lets get another this weekend. Winning at home is fun.
  15. I don't see Gonzo as a question mark. Lowest ERA in the rotation. Very good in '12 and '13. Rough April but great May. He may not go much farther than 6 innings but he will give you a good ERA for a back end starter.
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