Aristotelian

I think the odds of a SB and a hit are higher than an XBH or two hits. LAA has 6% XBH rate, two hits is like 7%, so maybe 13% chance to win there? A SB gets you to like 27%. If you have >50% chance to make it it's a good play. Definitely not stupid. Plus he made it. Admittedly it is a terrible anticlimactic way to lose but I blame the umps.

This could go on a separate thread but seems relevant here. Three of the guys in this homegrown lineup are currently in the top 10 for fWAR: 6. Gunnar 1.5 7. Cowser 1.4 9. Westburg 1.3 I have to think Gunnar will be moving up with his 3 for 3/HR SB and defense today.

Why is that stupid? SB gets him in scoring position. It's not like trying to steal third and we've seen Kimbrel be really bad at holding runners.

Trade Hays for peanuts and let O'Hearn walk.

I was shocked he accepted. Definitely whiffed on that one. He ended up making the $15.8M from us, plus 2x$10M with the Nats. I wonder what he would have gotten for a 3 year deal in free agency. I see some old projections for him getting $42M to $64M so appears he (or Boras) cost himself some money. I guess he will be OK as a mere 35-millionaire.

14 game on base streak. (Thanks @justD for bringing it up in the game thread although she thought it was a hit streak).

4/24, 6-5 win @LAA. Great start for Kremer but Gunnar gets it today. 3 for 3 with HR and on base five times with 2 HBP's, but he really gets it for the elite defensive play: https://x.com/MLB/status/1783266162093985911

Damn, that is such a bad call under review I almost feel dirty with the win. Angels really got robbed there.

Where's the help guys? Terrible.

He was 0fer in the Angels opener but he had a walk in that game and a 9 game hitting streak before that. So it's a 14 game on base streak! Adley has a 7 game hitting streak active.

Bumping up the Adley thread. Seems like we don't need to discuss him because his production is so consistent. (Last year, he had four of six months between .286 and .292; fix of six months OPS between .770 and .922). Currently sitting at .330/.371/.794. Seven game hitting streak with a lot of multihit games in the mix: 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 1, 2. Feels like he is letting the game come to him and everything is easy right now. Only 2 HR could be seen as disappointing, but OPS is close to his career .800 level. OPS+ is actually up a bit due to the league offensive environment. Walks also haven't shown up yet (BB/K is at -9 deficit, which was where he ended up after a full season last year). But OBP is still in line with career due to the elevated average. Pull% is lowest ever 35.4% with most balls going up the middle (44.3%). While we may want to see Adley get to the next level in power, he appears on track for a Tony Gwynn batting title type of season. I wonder if this is a conscious change in approach or just taking what is given. Hard to argue with the production, especially once the BB's pick up.

I feel like it's a negative familiarity, otherwise we would have made an effort to keep him.

Wow. Gunnar is the one. What a play.

I'm not a doctor, so if the O's are confident he is up to going back into the rotation as a full time starter, I suppose I will trust it. However, it makes sense to me to be conservative and manage his innings so he is in peak form in Sept/Oct. Of course, that takes for granted that we can get to the playoffs with him in a lesser role which may not be the case, but my inclination would be to stretch him out later rather than sooner.

Hopefully Means gets a rehab extension for another 30 days. If not, this seems right to me. Does Bradish go to the pen, or does he start with one of Suarez, Kremer, or Irvin pushed to the pen? I kind of like Bradish as an opener with Irvin backing him up most of his starts.