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forphase1

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forphase1 last won the day on March 7 2022

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  1. I disagree with this part. I think control is part of it, but CHEAP control is also a factor. Plus when/if he's held down past the Super 2 cutoff, that'll be all about money. I do think pure service time was the main reason, but to act like financial considerations were not a factor isn't accurate I don't think. I guess we will see just how big a factor depending on how long he's down.
  2. Who cares about the home grown crap? He just isn't very good, regardless of what organization he came up with or has been a part of. Heck McKenna is home grown and most are glad his time is likely up. It's about talent, and right now Nevin is potentially using a roster spot that most would rather see filed with a more talented player. I get the arguments for him, but they are outweighed, imo, by him just not being very good.
  3. Close to a zero percent chance he gets an extension, and not a much better chance he is resigned in the offseason IMO. I think it's 50/50 if they trade him or let him walk, much depends on the situation at the time, like how he's performing, how his replacements are performing, where we are on the playoff hunt, etc. I like Santander, but with all the possible RF/1st players knocking on the door (Mayo, Kjerstad) I doubt they view Santander as a long term need.
  4. While I'm as upset as anyone over the roster decisions, many are also overstating the impact. Yes, I think having Holliday and Mayo playing over the Urias/Mateo/Wong group would give us a few more wins over 162 game season. But the impact in the first 30 games is harder to say due to SSS and the situation. It's possible, maybe even likely, that both rookies struggle while they adjust, thus not helping the team in the first 30, or maybe even contributing to a loss or two. It's also possible that Mateo repeats his April of last year, and therefore sets a bar over the first 30 games that neither Holliday or Mayo would be likely to match. In that case them not being here likely doesn't hurt at all over the first month or so. Baseball is a funny game and it's hard to predict much over just 30 games. Over 162 things tend to even/ average out. Given equal playing time I think Holliday/Mayo out WAR Urias/Mateo over 162. But over 30 games anything can happen.
  5. Sure, we could and SHOULD have done more. My point was more about the Holliday decision, and if the most important thing was winning NOW then Holliday would be up as he's better than the guys playing in his place. Therefore winning NOW was not, in my opinion, the top consideration that Elias used when deciding to demote Holliday. Now, maybe Elias legitimately thinks that having Mateo and Urias at the plate versus Holliday makes us better, and that they will outperform him, and gives us a better chance to win. If so, I'll just have to disagree with him.
  6. Other than Westburg, that's basically the lineup we are going with. Unfortunately I expect to see both Mateo AND Urias in the starting lineup like this quite often. No longer have Odor or Frazier to be the vet clogging up an infield position, so Urias and Mateo will do the job.
  7. I agree, but it depends on what 'logic' you are using. IF the logic is 'we want to win TODAY and go all in for 2024' then Holliday should have already made the team OR he'd be up as soon as possible as he's a better player than some of the guys who will be getting at bats (Urias, Mateo) with him in the minors. But if the 'logic' is to make sure we have Holliday for as many years, as cheaply as we can, then that logic keeps him down past Super 2 status and past any way he can earn the year back by finishing top 2 in the ROY voting. The second MAY not be the best for 2024, but could arguably be what's best for the franchise long term. Then, even worse, if the 'logic' is he has a greater chance to net us a draft pick by winning the ROY in 2025, then he'll be down even longer. Problem is, we don't know exactly which 'logic' Elias it using. Win now in 2024? Long term franchise stability/control? Restocking the minors with additional picks? All can be logical, depending on which stance Elias is taking. Again, don't get me wrong. I'd have Holliday and Mayo BOTH on the OD roster. We need to maximize the Adley/Gunner years. But clearly Elias feels otherwise. We just don't know which logic he's using, and just how he is weighing the various considerations with winning now, service time, draft pick, price of Holliday, etc.
  8. Honestly it would depend. Are there two or three rookies tearing it up, thus making it harder for Holliday to catch up? Or is 2nd place wide open because one rookie is crushing it, but no one else is? Looking at your numbers above, it looks like playing less that 100 games would be a fairly safe bet. Only 7 players in 22 years played fewer games than that and finished in the top 2. So that would be my rough baseline, depending on what other rookies are doing. Maybe 110 would be ok... maybe only 90. Would have to watch the league and see how others are performing.
  9. As I said, service time is guaranteed IF you keep him down long enough. Clearly if they bring him up in 2 weeks he can still finish in the top 2 ROY voting and the year is then lost. But in 2 months it'd be doubtful, and the longer he's down, the less the chance he can challenge for top 2. At some point its pretty much guaranteed. Now that he's down I expect him to be down for quite a while really, way longer than most want to see. I hope I'm wrong, but I wasn't on him not making the OD, and I don't think I will be here either. If I'm a betting man, I put the odds of being down only a couple of weeks at about 15%, long enough to miss Super 2 at about 35%, long enough past Super 2 date to ensure no ROY (tons of variables here) at 30%, and the dreaded 'down long enough to ensure ROY eligibility for 2025' at about 20%. Again, I think him, and Mayo too, should both be on the OD roster. But this was the move I expected all along. And the same logic applies to the next move, that being how long he's down.
  10. I don't think so. Service time is guaranteed if they keep down long enough. The pick is a huge gamble. While interpreters for Japanese megastars may like to gamble, most GMs don't. A guaranteed extra year of Holliday is a much safer bet than a chance to win ROY and get the pick.
  11. I agree completely. But his wording on the chances, and honestly our excitement for having him on the team, lead to many believing it was almost a done deal, provided Holliday didn't flop in spring training. Well, he didn't flop, but he still didn't make the team. Just a bad look overall IMO.
  12. PR is simply public relations. With Holliday being the #1 prospect in the world, I don't think he wanted to say 'Yeah, he has VERY little chance to make the team' or 'the plan is for him to start in AAA'. Instead he hyped up his chances, acted like there was a real good chance he makes the team, when at best it wasn't very likely. I'm not saying he was overhyping Holliday, as frankly he deserves all the hype, but rather he hyped up the chances Holliday had to really make the team. I think the chances were VERY slim, no matter how he played. Elias was being disingenuous when describing how good of a chance he had.
  13. So you think the plan was to play him, but he didn't perform well enough? Of course it was BAD PR, but it was still PR. Elias should have never hyped up his chance like he did. Should have been much more tempered about the possibility. But he didn't, he lead folks to believe Holliday had a legitimate shot. He never really did IMO.
  14. Exactly. If service time is a factor (and I'm 100% sure that it was) he isn't going to come out and say that. It was always going to be be 'he needs work' or 'more seasoning' or something. It was NEVER going to be 'we want to game the system, keep Holliday for as long and as cheaply as possible'. Come on. I know reporters have to ask the question, but everyone knows a lie is coming as the answer.
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