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Say O!

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    Chicago
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  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Gunnar Henderson
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Cal Ripken Jr

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  1. Although Mullins batted lead off quite a bit during Spring Training, I would not be surprised if he remains down in the lineup even against RHPs. We may see Gunnar hold down the leadoff spot until Holliday gets promoted (dropping Gunnar to 3 spot).
  2. The ESPN power rankings have the Os as 4th best team behind ATL, LAD, HOU (in that order). Re: W-L record projection. Most simulation models are built on some form of mean regression of individual player stats. So bullpen will get dinged due to lack of track records for most. Additionally guys like Mullins and to lesser extent Hays and Mountcastle have variability/injury skew which add noise to the models. The youth and depth of Os roster will (hopefully) allow them to exceed these type of regression models.
  3. Re: Tides. I would be surprised if Kjerstad was not in the OF. Also will be interesting to see where Norby gets his reps.
  4. Yeah I think the scouting was that he would be .300 with limited power around 15-20 HRs. Now seems like 30-35 HR potential, but hits .250 with tons of Ks.
  5. Mullins second half performance and spring start are somewhat worrisome, especially since other CF alternatives are clear step down defensively. It will be interesting to see how the lineup profiles, does Mullins hit leadoff against RHPs (it seems so this spring). Otherwise not concerned about rest of roster, probably is exiting spring training with the least amount of question marks and best depth since 1983.
  6. For those watching, what have been your impressions of Teheran and McDermott?
  7. Good question, and I concur with Bradfield. Will he hit? That’s the biggest question to be answered in the whole org.
  8. GM/coaching staff had not previously seen or limited opportunities to see Holliday at 2B or face MLb quality LHPs. We (public) are evaluating from spring training stats and handful of games. Os brass has undoubtedly gotten more observations and data points from backfields — both defensively and in the batting cage. So while Elias comments today are certainly some GM speak and reason for getting additional service time, I do find it plausible that Holliday does indeed require more development at 2B (particularly double play pivots) and also against LHPs.
  9. If he has TJ surgery, we shouldn’t expect meaningful contributions until 2026. Maybe could return in limited action by Sept 2025.
  10. While this is a Gunnar thread (and I’m very pleased to see the Os keep him at SS where he will be/already is a plus defender), I wanted to comment briefly on some of the other players mentioned. In the 3/14 game I saw in person against Pitt in Bradenton, Mateo looked VERY good defensively at 2B. A super utility with speed can be valuable, and if he hits OK in 2024 I could see Mateo remaining on team in 2025 with Mayo displacing Urías. In the spring training action and highlights, Holliday also appears very comfortable at 2B and his hands + throwing on the run at different angles. And it is apparent he prefers throwing on the run to use his smooth athleticism. Have yet to see him plant right foot and fire a throw from the hole, in fact some of his throws in 2B hole and double play pivots are of the jump variety. And in terms of CF possibilities, you usually see guys move from INF to OF when their hands are questionable and Hollidays are one of his better traits. In the 3/14 prospects game, Bradfield looked AMAZING defensively in CF. Playing very shallow the whole time. And when liner over his head went to warning track, he was able to turn and absolutely fly to the ball when I thought he had no chance. Yes TBD on whether he will hit enough.
  11. In Rochs blog he also mentions that Hyde said Mateo made the team. Also implies we may see Mateo some at 2B.
  12. I get what trying to do in terms of extrapolating pure SS WAR for Gunnar. Just wanted to add as FYI that fangraphs projects composite fWAR of 4.9 (so 3.2 SS and 1.7 3B) for Gunnar over 616 PAs.
  13. This. it does seem that finally there is enough quality depth such that Hays does not need to “tough it out” when he’s banged up and can go on IL stint without too much falloff to Cowser/Stowers/Kjerstad.
  14. Last year one of the larger position player discrepancies in fWAR/bWAR was Gunnar at 4.6 fWAR/6.2 bWAR. The difference due to defensive metrics where UZR (fangraphs preferred metric) showed average whereas DRS (bb-ref preferred metric) showed above average/elite SS defense from Gunnar, which largely stemmed from his arm and double plays. Based on spring training and second half of last season, it appears that Gunnar will be exclusively SS in 2024. With his combination of offense and defense, he could very well finish as the highest WAR shortstop in baseball. Seager seems to be injured quite often, Turner and Lindor on the wrong side of 30, and Witt is on lousy KC team.
  15. Agree. Starting to feel more and more like precautionary load management program.
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