Moose Milligan

Copying and pasting from my phone which isn’t ideal. Speed is the name of the game. Just as major-league teams are working on models that can help them make decisions faster, so do public analysts trying to help people beat the line, win that overall prize, or at least beat their college friends in that fantasy league. In the effort to make better decisions faster, we have a few statistics that can aid our efforts: • Fastball velocity stabilizes quickly — three starts should reliably predict the rest of the season. • Relatedly, Stuff+ becomes meaningful after as little as one start, at least when it comes to fastballs and sliders. • Strikeout-minus-walk rate is one of the most powerful small-sample tools. —————- Burnes: Stuff+ told us before the season that Burnes had a great curveball that he could feature more, so it shouldn't be a surprise that he's done exactly that in Baltimore. He's also seen his fastball velocity return to 2022 levels. The result has been vintage Burnes, at a time when it seems like all the aces are falling around him. Long-term park factors are funky in Baltimore — with the new dimensions, Burnes should easily put up a low-threes ERA with plenty of strikeouts. —————— G-Rod: Like with this teammate Burnes, you can expect Rodriguez to beat this ERA projection. He now has two fastballs and two secondaries that are elite in terms of physical characteristics, so it's a full arsenal. Even using last year's data to improve the sample size, he's shown above-average command of four pitches, too. The only question mark is the fact that he lacks a slider. The cutter isn't great — overuse of that pitch early last season is what got him in trouble — and he hasn't consistently thrown a hard breaking ball. Otherwise, he's golden Grayson.

I tried to do some @Just Regularkinda writing in the opener

Rodney’s the best.

The Orioles are in sweet and tangy bbq land to play the Fightin' Bob Hamelins for a three game set starting tonight. Fri: 7:40 EST start: Dean Kremer vs. Alec Marsh Sat: 7:10 EST start: Corbin Burnes vs. Cole Ragans Sun: 2:10 EST start: Cole Irvin vs. Seth Lugo KC enters the series 1 game back of the Cleveland Thomes and they're 7-3 over their last 10. Despite their recent history of ineptitude, they look to be improved this year in the poverty stricken AL Central and they can still give us a hard time. Lefty Ragans is off to a good start which means we'll be down Ryan O'Hearn for Austin Hays as is Sunday starter Lugo. Bobby Witt 2.0 has an OPS of .997 and already at 1.6 WAR, Old Man Perez is at .943 and Vinnie Boom Bats is .853.

Weak-kneed Drungo. Doesn't happen often.

Yeah, but he hasn't come across SIGBOT until now. Your move.

That hadn't been done in over 30 years!

Yeah. So let's read the room and stop talking about it.

If he stays healthy, I do believe Gunnar can hit 40 homers this year. Looks like he's *ahem* getting to his power quite well so far.

You not getting weak kneed at a triple crown is disappointing, WAR guy.

I agree that something is off. But it's not like he hasn't seen high velocity before. He'll be fine.

Don't you?

Isn't he?

I wonder how much Interloper would charge me to have him follow me around and just explain away my mistakes and shortcomings to anyone/everyone.