Re the “carry over from last year” argument, I was thinking today about Luke Scott in 2009-10. In 2009, Scott had a .957 OPS at the all star break, but slumped horribly after that and posted a .667 the rest of that season. Then he had a horrible first 5 weeks in 2010, and as of May 4, had a .604 OPS. We were hearing all the exact same arguments about how Scott’s bad start was tied to his poor finish in 2009 and spelled long term doom. Zap - Scott then posted a .964 OPS for the rest of the season.
I'm not saying this will happen with Hays, but it’s an example of why I don’t buy the “carry over” argument.